An emerging approach for strategy evaluation in fuel cell development

1. An emerging approach for strategy evaluation in fuel cell development 指導教授：張菽萱博士 研究生：沈永祺

2. Definition of the fuel cell • Fuel cell: it needs a type of fuel to maintain its electrical power and its fuel is hydrogen. • types of fuel cells: • alkaline • phosphoric acid (PAFC) • molten carbon (MCFC) • solid oxide (SOFC) • proton exchange membrane (PEMFC) • direct methanol fuel cells (DMFC)

4. Fuel cell research projects in Taiwan • ITRI • Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (CSIST) • Institute of Nuclear Energy Research (INER) • Yuan Ze University • Asia-Pacific Fuel Cell Corp (APFC)

6. Three steps of creating the research model • the description of the scenarios in fuel cell development • the design of a tree structure that has multi aspects of future development and criteria of encountered difficulties • the process of questionnaire design, survey and evaluation

7. The evaluation of criteria weights • 9 professionals from industry, 6 government policy decision makers, 5 professors from academia, 5 researchers from research institutes • AHP: the first tier is the goal, which is the final target. The second tier is the aspect of major issues for analysis. The last tier has many objectives/criteria, classified into 13 items. • The weights determined by AHP are calculated based on the relative paired data surveyed by the research team. • Fuzzy set theory: this theory provides the fuzzy research with a very strong foundation to study the problems of uncertainty and some very objective arguments. • Fuzzy multiple criteria decision making (FMCDM) theory

8. CRITERIA OR ENCOUNTERED DIFFICULTIES OBJECTIVE ATTRIBUTES STRATEGIC ACTIONS Insufficient R&D Investment • Increase R&D budget and transfer technology from overseas • Carefully select the niche products and its applications • Financial aid to new users • Sponsor to build infrastructure and tax aid • Tax incentives and other incentive measures • Low interest loan • Prepare the product standard and safety regulations/establish certified testing center • Establish national program and enhance coordination and promotion mechanism • Policy or regulations for clean energy • Re-enforce education training promotion and demo • Train marketing & planning professionals • Efficiently manage business strategies • Develop demo operating zone or system with financial support Technology Bottleneck R&D Technology Needs R&D Alliance Ned Technology Transfer Insufficient R&D manpower Human Resource Needs professionals incubation Insufficient mass production professionals The threats from alternative products Fuel Cell Future Development High production cost (immature market) Marketing Needs to integrate the information and its circulation among industries, academia, research institutes and governments Small domestic market size Government Policy Very unclear government policy Public has no sufficient knowledge that need educational promotion Need tax incentives and other incentive measures infrastructure Needs low interest loan Needs improvement on the container size and its sealing system Priority list of industrial development in Taiwan: motorcycle, information/communication/consumer electronics, automobile, power generation equipment

9. The steps under AHP for the policy decision process • developing a matrix system for the paired data comparison • developing eigenvalue and priority vector • consistency evaluation • calculating the weighting of the hierarchy structure

12. The top five encountered difficulties or problems

13. Priority product list

14. Conclusions and suggestions (1/2) • The evaluation criteria of the priority are: • Technology bottleneck • Insufficient R&D investment • High production cost • Unclear government policy • Insufficient R&D professionals • The threats from alternative products • Insufficient tax incentives and other incentive measures • Insufficient professional training • R&D alliance • Insufficient basic foundation equipment

15. Conclusions and suggestions (2/2) • The priority of the strategic actions: • Government should have the policy to regulate the required percentage for the clean energy. • Increase R&D budget. • Establish national level program. • Carefully select the niche products and their applications. • Support the operating demonstration or pilot zone with financial aid. • Prepare the product standard and safety regulations. • Expand tax incentives and incentive measures. • Build infrastructure and tax aid. • Incentives with financial aid to the new users. • Flexible efficient business strategies. • Enhance educational training and promotion activities. • Low interest loan. • Train marketing and planning professionals.

16. Follow up research suggestions • Future research can further analyze the factor under each criteria integrating with fuzzy measure to calculate the λ value, representing its intervals of properties for substitution, independency and complementary.