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Ocean Prediction Center NCEP Production Suite Review 2009

Graphical Forecast Editor - OPC Status. TPC/NHC optimized WNOR side for OPC GFE usage12.5 km grids

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Ocean Prediction Center NCEP Production Suite Review 2009

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    1. NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center NCEP Production Suite Review 2009 Joe Sienkiewicz Chief, Ocean Applications Branch Science Operations Officer (Acting)

    2. Graphical Forecast Editor - OPC Status TPC/NHC optimized WNOR side for OPC GFE usage 12.5 km grids – 2 domains - Atlantic and Pacific covering High Seas, Offshores, and graphical product needs Building capability to produce existing graphics High Seas and OFF Gridded Meeting – Oct 2009 NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center

    3. FY2010 OPC Milestones Ensemble based probabilistic marine warnings Gulf Stream hazards scale Gridded production evolution (GFE) ET storm surge guidance in marine weather discussion Altimeter based wave height verification Navy Global HYCOM into operations Implement wave optimum interpolation technique Altimeter based wave height verification OSCAR ocean currents migration from NESDIS to OPC NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center

    4. NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center

    5. NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center

    6. Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) 1/34 deg regional – 3 domains NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center

    7. NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM)

    8. NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center

    9. Great Circle Rays NCEP Production Review - Dec. 9, 2008 - Ocean Prediction Center

    10. NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center Extratropical SLOSH ftp://ftp.mpc.ncep.noaa.gov/grids/experimental/etsurge_grib2/

    11. ET Surge Nov 12-14 NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center

    12. Optimum Interpolation Wave Analysis NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center

    13. Optimum Interpolation Wave Analysis NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center

    14. NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center

    15. NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center

    16. Optimum Interpolation PMSL Analysis

    17. Ensembles – short term usage NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center

    18. NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center

    19. NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center

    20. NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center

    21. 90 member ensemble maximum wind speed

    22. NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center

    23. Hurricane Force Extra-tropical Cyclones – Detection and Warning Trend using QuikSCAT 2000-2009 NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center

    24. Forecast Verification - Cyclones NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center

    29. 48 hr Warnings – Probability of Detection NCEP Production Review - Dec. 9, 2008 - Ocean Prediction Center

    30. 96 hr Warnings – Probability of Detection NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center

    31. NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center All Warnings – False Alarm Ratio

    32. Major Forecast Challenges Remain

    33. NCEP Production Review - Dec. 9, 2008 - Ocean Prediction Center

    34. NCEP Production Review - Dec. 9, 2008 - Ocean Prediction Center Hurricane Force Cyclones Track error comparable to NHC Atlantic TC error Predictability higher in Atlantic than Pacific Under predict depth and wind speed at day 4 Forecast challenges remain In essence can predict major cyclone and where Intensity (wind and central pressure) still a challenge Timing of rapid development Ensemble approach Promising but lacking representation of higher wind speeds (resolution?) Calibration with 10 year QuikSCAT wind speeds Evaluating using 925 mb winds

    35. GFS grid scale precip spin-ups Latent heat release efficiently reduces sea-level pressure SLP gradient tightens and wind field responds Generates artificially strong small-scale lows with very high winds and waves Forecasters must adjust A real issue when go to grid production NCEP Production Review - Dec. 9, 2008 - Ocean Prediction Center

    36. NAM Wind Gust Grids NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center

    37. NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center SREF –Thunderstorm Probability excellent guidance Possible to extend to within 250 nm of coasts?

    38. NMM Simulated Reflectivity NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center

    39. Goal Improve description of forecast convection across OFFSHORE waters – first 24 hours Presently, wording is very general Attempt to better quantify character of convection Solid lines Super cells Improvement on timing NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center

    40. Requests Reduce GFS grid scale precip issue Calibrated ensemble based probabilities of 10m wind speeds (using 10 yr QuikSCAT data set) ET Surge from NAM (ensemble application?) High resolution analysis / short-term forecasts for ocean basins Maximum 10m wind gust from GFS Extension of SREF calibrated T-storm guidance to 250 nm of coasts Parallel NWW3_NAH or WNA with current forecasts from NCOM or RTOFS Improved visibility guidance NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center

    41. NCEP Production Review - Dec. 8, 2009 - Ocean Prediction Center

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