Debating Effective Solution for Water Constrained Future of Pakistan Dr. Zaigham Habib

1. Debating Effective Solution for Water Constrained Future of Pakistan Dr. Zaigham Habib

2. Water Debate • Pakistan in Global Context • Natural Water Scenario • Understanding Future Constraints • Some of the Solutions

3. Need for a Debate • Debate, dialogue and consultation - different communication processes • Debate (argue, question, disagree, learn) – scientific & issue specific, leads to opinion formation & selection of solutions • Dialogue (discourse, convey) – bringing close diverse interests and stakeholders • Consultation (discuss, exchange ideas, get 2nd opinion) - a tool to refine solutions

4. Lack of Debates in water Sector • Argue, question, disagree  formulate solutions and options • Diverse technical opinions are least discussed – leading to limited solutions and narrow perceptions • Scientific options not taken neutrally • Too much consumed by the fear of talking about “bad solutions/ options” • A dilemma of not accepting scientific diversity

5. Fresh Water – Global Picture Where is this 0.5 % of fresh water? 10^6 km3 stored in aquifers. 11.9 103 km3 net rainfall falling after accounting for evaporation. • 91*103 km3 in natural lakes • 5 103 km3 in man made storage -7 fold increase since 1950. • 2,120 km3 in rivers – constantly replaced from rainfall and melting snow and ice.

7. Physical water scarcity --

8. A water based Economy ---

9. Irrigation per Hectare close to World Average

10. Physical and economic water scarcity

13. Per capita Eastern rivers Groundwater catchments Some Facts Area: 803,940km2 Population: 160 million Climate: Arid; variable rainfall, river inflows & groundwater quality

15. Gross Available Water Rainfall = Avg. 45 MAF (30 to 90 MAF) Rivers Inflow = 135 MAF (average 1978 – 2006) Groundwater = 50 to 60 MAF

17. Decrease of Eastern Inflow from India – as a result of Indus Water Treaty

23. Changed Ecology along the Rivers The riverine natural vegetation and non-irrigated agriculture is replaced by the well irrigation. The flood based forest have severely damaged during recent drought years

24. Increased uses from rivers and decreased drainage inflow can cause local floods

25. Groundwater Aquifer Many issues Actual potential Limited monitoring grid Sustainability of use patterns High value for farmers Control mechanism

26. Demand in 2025 crossing total availability

27. Water Constrained Future • Permanent Physical Scarcity - population • Most of the water has already been utilized • Natural water cushions depleting • Water based economy – high manpower, low productivity • Hydropower, a most efficient user dependent on surface storages • New water use sectors are emerging • Skewed spatio-temporal water availability and potential • Climate Changes

28. Towards Solutions

29. Meeting demands of Socio economic and environment sectors • Solution in hand - surface storage • Good Scope for hydropower • Limited water for agriculture from storage • Domestic & infrastructure big claimers in future • Environmental needs – an essential area to be considered

30. Expanding Management Approaches Conventional Linear cause-effect solutions Scope limited, problems deep-rooted Replicability assuming neutral Context (conservation & drainage technologies, farm practices, crops selection etc.) Complex drivers of change and management Comprehensive adaptive Manage the Cause as well Protect resource base and long term resilience Effective demand management Diversification of water-intensive production

31. Protect Natural Water Cycle and Resource Base – in quantity • Trans-boundary waters - expanding strategy • Sacrosanct Indus Water Treaty cannot stop India from planning 11 projects on western rivers; • Establish need of western flood water in Pakistan • Let people talk about negative impacts of IWT on Pakistan side • Natural Water cycle must be maintained for resilience • Protect all water bodies; rivers, lakes and flood plains • Groundwater aquifer – artificial recharge in fresh zone • minimize/drain effluent in saline area

33. Quality Management and control • Many Grey Areas • Industrial and urban effluents to rivers and lakes – treat at source, reuse • waste water treatment – set examples • Drainage management – lessons learned? • Drainage functions of rivers and main canals • Groundwater quality – exact issue ? • Leaching of agri lands • Excess water used in saline areas

34. Productivity of water in Agriculture • Conservation - canal lining big initiative, 50% complete • Field level water efficient technologies new initiative • Value addition increasing trends • Talking about “green to gene revolution” • Yet, • The yield of major crops stagnant • Uncertainty for farmers has increased • Public sector investments increasing and essential

35. Food security & Agriculture • National policy about produce, market and trade • Food security important because of declining production of wheat in USA & Australia, • Within Pakistan traditional grain areas are shifting towards oil seeds, vegetables, fruits & maize • A link between livelihood oriented small marginal farming and food grain production consistent • Potential of rain-fed and saline areas

36. Average Crop Yields in Pakistan and other Countries tons/hectare 2005

42. Meeting Agriculture Targets • Economically feasible agriculture model for small farms (inputs, technologies, markets) • Protect high efficiency groundwater -recharge • Crop zoning • Low water use and salinity tolerant crops • Livestock sub-sector • New opportunities for rural labor force shifting from farming; agro-based industry, local business

43. Domestic, infrastructure supplies • A big future Challenge • Safe drinking water promised to all • Municipal supplies to big cities, semi-urban and advance rural areas • New infrastructure and down developments

47. From where this water will come? • Main storages – needs for allocation, transfer from agriculture • From Existing canal system – some allocations in saline areas, more will be required for new projects • Local surface resources: small rivers, lakes – replacement or protection • Groundwater – largest access, quality and quantity threatened

48. Approach for domestic supply management • Protect quality of all water resources • Priority to local resources • Allocate and account all uses • Demand side measures can not be postponed • Capacity of household appliances • Rain harvesting wherever possible • Control on infrastructure, commercial uses • Household waste management • Pricing

49. Regional Context NWFP: high allocations after seventies, natural drainage collapsing, pollution of water bodies, local water access. Lower Indus: Saline, waterlogged, low rainfall, riverine cultivation not sustainable, shift towards perennial crops, livelihood dependence on wetlands, lakes & unallocated resources high, demand for delta Punjab: water shortage in cash crop areas, cultivation extending outside canal irrigated area, groundwater depleting, recharge sources decreasing,rivers pollution and dry conditions. Balochistan: groundwater fast depleting, local harvesting not reliable, domestic and sanitation

50. Sustainable Future • Protectionist approach (how, where, why ???) • Actions at regional, local and users levels (water-wise societies, incentives, capacities and regulation) • National capacity to define issues and select sustainable solutions (drivers of management) • Knowledge to integrate empirical trends and scientific models (who needs it? Public sector, users, donors?)