What’s The Cattle Price Outlook For 2006?

1. What’s The Cattle Price Outlook For 2006? Dr. Walter Prevatt Dr. Deacue Fields Extension Economists Auburn University

2. Cattle Situation and Outlook

3. U.S. Cattle and Calves Inventory, 1949-2006 Million Head Cattle & Calves Inventory Year

4. U.S. Cattle and Calves Inventory, 1949-2006 Million Head Cattle & Calves Inventory 1949-58 1958-67 1967-79 1979-90 1990-04 Year

5. Length of U.S. Cattle Cycles Million Head 1967-79 1958-67 2004-? 1979-90 1990-04 1949-58 Number of Years

6. U.S. Cattle Inventory & Average Calf Price 1949-2006 Million Head Year

7. U.S. Cattle and Calves Inventory,97.1 Million Head, Jan. 1, 2006

8. U.S. Cattle & Calves, Jan. 1, 2005 & 2006

9. Percent Change From A Year Ago In U.S. Inventory, Jan. 1, 2006

10. Beef Replacement Heifers Jan 1, 1985-2006

15. Heifers As A Percent Of Total Feedlot Placements, 1980-2005

16. U. S. Beef Production, 1975-2006 * Estimated

17. U.S. Average Cattle Carcass Weights, 1975-2005 Factors affect carcass weights include genetics, marketing technology, corn prices, grid pricing, fed cattle prices, breakeven prices, etc.

18. U.S. Cattle Operations, Number by Year, 1975-2005

19. U.S. Cattle Operations, Number by Size Group, 2005 982,510 U.S. cattle operations, 2005

20. U.S. Cattle Operations & Inventory, Percent by Size Group, 2005 Cattle Operations Cattle Inventory

21. Cattle Situation and Outlook Demand Situation

22. U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption,Retail Weight Basis, 1976-2006

23. U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption,Retail Weight Basis, 1976-2006

24. U.S. Beef Imports and Exports, Billion Pounds, 1970-06

25. U.S. Beef Imports and Exports, Billion Dollars, 1976-06

26. Cattle Situation and Outlook Cost of Production

27. U.S. Cow-Calf Cash Expenses, 1972-99 *1990-99 estimates were based on a revised methodology.

28. Southeast Ammonium Nitrate Prices, 1970-06

29. Stocker Gross Margin, Alabama, October-April, 400# -750#, 1979-2006 Gross margin is feeder sale value minus stocker purchase value. Based on steers, med. & lrg., No. 1, Oct. to Apr., 400 to 750 pounds.

30. Monthly Feeding Cost of Gain700 to 800 Lb. Steers in Kansas Source: KSU Cattle Return Series

31. Cattle Situation and Outlook Market Prices

32. Alabama Feeder Calf Prices,Steers, Med. & Lg., #1, 1990-2006

33. Annual U. S. Beef Production, 2000-06 *Estimated

34. Annual U.S. Beef Production &Average Fed Beef Price, 2000-2006

35. Quarterly U. S. Beef Production, 2004-06 *Estimated (2004 -> 24.5B, 2005 -> 24.7B, 2006 -> 25.9B*)

36. Quarterly U. S. Beef Production & Average Fed Beef Price, 2004-2006 *Estimated

37. 2006 Cattle Price Projections, $/Cwt. These projections will be revised as new economic information is received and processed.

38. Cattle Situation and Outlook Profit Potential

39. U.S. Cow - Calf Returns Over Cash Expenses, 1972-99 Source: USDA

40. Average Annual Cow-Calf ReturnsOver Cash Expenses, 1980-2004 Source: Cattle-Fax

41. Average Annual Stocker CattleReturns Over Cash Expenses, 1980-2006 Source: Cattle-Fax Includes winter and summer grazing programs.

42. Monthly Returns for Finishing 700 to 800 Lb. Steers in Kansas Source: KSU Cattle Return Sales

43. Average Annual Cattle Feeding Returns, 1980-2004 Source: Cattle-Fax

44. Cattle Situation and Outlook Summary Remarks

45. Cattle Situation and Outlook Greed, Fear, and Weather

46. Alabama Feeder Calf Prices,Steers, Med. & Lg., #1, 1990-2006

47. Projected Profit/Loss By Cattle Industry SegmentsDuring The Four Price Phases Of The Cattle Cycle* The information in this chart is generalized based on the price phase of the cattle cycle. These projections will be revised as new economic information is received and processed.

48. What’s The Cattle Price OutlookFor 2006 Dr. Walter Prevatt Dr. Deacue Fields Extension Economists Auburn University