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Advanced Freight Emissions Abatement Potential: a Well-to-Wheels A nalytical P erspective

Advanced Freight Emissions Abatement Potential: a Well-to-Wheels A nalytical P erspective. Jacob Ward Vehicle Technologies Office, U.S. Department of Energy vehicles.energy.gov. AASHTO Freight Partnership V July 31, 2013. Freight % growth outpaces passenger % growth.

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Advanced Freight Emissions Abatement Potential: a Well-to-Wheels A nalytical P erspective

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  1. Advanced Freight Emissions Abatement Potential: a Well-to-Wheels Analytical Perspective • Jacob Ward • Vehicle Technologies Office, U.S. Department of Energy • vehicles.energy.gov • AASHTO Freight Partnership V • July 31, 2013

  2. Freight % growth outpaces passenger % growth Source: IEA, ETP (2012); NREL, TEF (2013).

  3. Modal comparison of freight GHG intensity Source: IEA, ETP 2010.

  4. Freight modes have unique purposes Source: NREL, TEF (2013).

  5. Truck fuel economy improves slowly Heavy Truck: 40 L/100km = 6 mpg Medium Truck: 30 L/100km = 8.5 mpg Source: IEA, ETP (2012).

  6. Freight projected to continue to outpace passenger! 50% – 250% road freight growth by 2050! Source: IEA, ETP (2012).

  7. Freight growth washes out energy efficiency (or vice-versa) Source: NREL, TEF (2013).

  8. vehicle-fuel pathways advanced internal combustion engine vehicle compressed natural gas vehicle flexible fuel (e85-capable) vehicle hybrid electric vehicle plug-in hybrid electric vehicle all-electric vehicle fuel cell electric vehicle icev cngv ffv hev phev aev fcev

  9. well-to-wheels (wtw) • Argonne National Laboratory’s GREET tool (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation) models WTW emissions • This WTW analysis uses GREET1, version 2012, and includes: • - Vehicle operation (pump-to-wheels, or PTW) • - Fuel cycle (well-to-pump, or WTP) Raw material extraction Material processing Component manufacture and Vehicle assembly wtp> [ptw] Vehicle Operation Raw material extraction Transportation Refining Delivery Vehicle recycling

  10. internal combustion regimes today: what are the wtw emissions from ~6.5mpg? wtp ptw wtp wtp GREET estimates for today’s average gasoline truck, 1750 gCO2e/mi ptw ptw ptw wtp fuel switching (from gasoline) emissions reductions: ~20% ~0% ~10% Source: GREET 2012.

  11. hybrid regimes today: what is the emissions abatement from hybridization? Highly dependent on duty cycle! hybrids emit 1/3less than ICEVs, and even less if plugged-in on a clean grid (emissions for U.S. average grid mix shown) hybridization (from gasoline) emissions reductions: ~30% ~35-45% ~35% Source: GREET 2012.

  12. electric regimes today: what is the emissions abatement from electrification? Highly dependent on duty cycle! electric vehicle WTW emissions are heavily dependent on the grid from which they’re fueled; emissions reductions range from 0 to 70%. natural gas us avg calif.avg coal fuel switching (from gasoline) emissions reductions: ~0% ~55% ~45% ~70% Source: GREET 2012.

  13. hydrogen regimes today: what is the emissions abatement from fuel cells? fuel cell vehicle WTW emissions are heavily dependent on the source of hydrogen; emissions reductions range from -30 to 35%. us avg calif.avg fuel switching (from gasoline) emissions reductions: ~35% ~20% -30% Source: GREET 2012.

  14. future combustion 2030+: what are the wtw emissions from ~10+ mpg? ~85% ~45-60% advanced biofuels vehicle efficiency improvement Source: DOE, WTW Program Record (2013).

  15. future hybrids 2030+: what are the wtw emissions from advanced hybridization? ~85% ~50% advanced biofuels vehicle efficiency improvement Source: DOE, WTW Program Record (2013).

  16. future plug-in hybrids 2030+: what are the wtw emissions from hybrid electrification? ~85% ~60% ~75% green electricity advanced biofuels vehicle efficiency improvement Source: DOE, WTW Program Record (2013).

  17. future electric-drive 2030+: what are the wtw emissions from electrification? ~95% ~65% clean grid electrification Source: DOE, WTW Program Record (2013).

  18. future hydrogen 2030+: what are the wtw emissions from fuel cells? ~85-95% ~75% ~55% central distribution w/CCS advanced fuel cell clean hydrogen Source: DOE, WTW Program Record (2013).

  19. summary results (gCO2e/mile) Source: DOE, WTW Program Record (2013).

  20. implied promising wtw pathways advanced internal combustion engine vehicle AND advanced biofuel hybrid electric vehicle AND advanced biofuel plug-in hybrid electric vehicle AND advanced biofuel all-electric vehicle AND renewable electricity fuel cell electric vehicle AND renewable hydrogen or CCS Source: DOE, WTW Program Record (2013).

  21. Jacob Ward • Vehicle Technologies Office • vehicles.energy.gov • AASHTO Freight Partnership V • July 31, 2013

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