Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts of Ethanol in Thailand

1. Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts of Ethanol in Thailand • Presented by: CEP-KMUTT research group

2. Analysis of Ethanol in Thailand • Energy to produce 99.5% ethanol using cassava • Environmental effects of ethanol as a fuel supplement

3. Ethanol Production Process Ethanol Factory Starch to Sugar Cassava Farm Milling Factory Fermentation Transportation Distillation Blending Refining

4. Locations of Cassava Milling and Ethanol Factories Average Transportation Energy Cost ~ 0.62 MJ / L 99.5% Ethanol Factory Cassava Milling

5. Energy Cost in MJ/L 99.5% Ethanol

6. Chart of Energy Cost

7. Energy Balance • Net energy loss of ~ 0.75 to 4.3 MJ/L (~ 3 to 20%)

8. Conclusion Energy Analysis • This energy analysis is unique in that it is the first time the total energy cost of producing and blending 99.5% ethanol in Thailand has been calculated. • Negative energy balance • Other studies have calculated a net energy gain from the ethanol production process • A 2002 study conducted by the US Department of Agriculture found a +5.9 MJ/L ethanol gain in energy

9. Discussion • How do our results affect the benefits from “Greenhouse Neutrality”? • Around 22 to 25 MJ of Fossil Fuel is used to produce 21.1 MJ of EtOH • Advances in Technology and/or Technology Transfer from other countries • Economies of Scale: Can ethanol become a closed system? • Greenhouse Gas emissions trading

10. Gasohol Emissions vs. Gasoline Emissions

11. Stations Modeled Huay Kwang 11 km MET Department

12. Comparison of Measured Data and the Template Model

13. Comparison of Measured and Template Model

14. Comparing the Simulated Results with Measured Data • The O3 patterns are similar • Max O3 level of Template Model (~14 ppb) is ~25% lower than measured data (~18 ppb) • NO2 patterns are similar • NO concentrations differ greatly, but the overall patterns are similar

15. Description of Scenarios Modeled in OZIPP

16. Comparison of Modeled O3 levels for 8/19/96 at Huay Kwang

17. Comparison between Template,Scenario 2, and Scenario 3

18. OZIPP Results for 8/19/96 +171% +49% +42%

19. OZIPP Results for 12/23/97 +127% +29% +17%

20. PANs

21. The Effect of Increased Acetaldehyde Emissions • From our results, the additional acetaldehyde and ethanol emissions from gasohol increase the concentration of ground level ozone. • Ozone levels still increase when VOC, NOx, and CO emissions are reduced below baseline levels, demonstrating acetaldehyde’s influence on ozone formation.

22. Conclusions • From our data, the widespread use of gasohol in the BMR would most likely lead to an increase in ground level ozone; however, the exact increase is not known. • It appears that lower ozone days will experience higher increases in ozone than high ozone days. However, significant increases in ozone concentrations are expected for all days.

23. Final Thoughts The potential benefits of producing and using fuel ethanol are obvious: -Economic stimulus for impoverished agricultural areas -Increased self-sufficiency -Decreased Greenhouse Gas Emissions -Competitive advantage over other countries

24. Final Thoughts • Our energy analysis and OZIPP modeling was an objective attempt at producing a more holistic view of how fuel ethanol production and use might effect Thailand. • A positive energy balance must be achieved for most potential benefits to be realized. • Determining the net environmental effects are very complex and require a comprehensive analysis of both ethanol production and use.

25. Final Thoughts If Thailand should choose to use fuel ethanol, we strongly recommend that the government vigorously monitor energy cost, energy efficiency, and air quality so that problems are recognized and corrected in a timely manner.