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Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council Portland, OR August 21, 2008

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Actual vs. Modeled Operation of Combined-Cycle Combustion Turbines in the Pacific Northwest. Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council Portland, OR August 21, 2008.

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Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council Portland, OR August 21, 2008

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  1. Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power PlanActual vs. Modeled Operation of Combined-Cycle Combustion Turbines in the Pacific Northwest Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council Portland, OR August 21, 2008

  2. Excessive Shutdown Disorder: condition where modeled operation of CCCTs exhibit more stops (and starts) than actual operation. July 17, 2008

  3. Q: How do you know if you have excessive shutdown disorder? A: Get EPA’s Continuous Emissions Monitoring System (CEMS) data. July 17, 2008

  4. Pacific Northwest CCCT Dataset • EPA CEMS Data: 2006 – Q1 2008 • Hourly Operating Data: 19,704 hours • Generating Unit Data: • Aggregate to plant level • Gross Generation (in MW) • For gas turbines only (not for HRSGs) • Fuel Input (in MMBtu) • Fuel Factor (i.e., Hourly Fuel Input / Max(Fuel Input)) as proxy for CCCT capacity factor July 17, 2008

  5. Northwest CCCTs in CEMS Database July 17, 2008

  6. Coyote Springs 1: Actual Operation in 2007 July 17, 2008

  7. Coyote Springs 1: Modeled Operation in 2007 July 17, 2008

  8. Coyote Springs 1: Actual Week Summer July 17, 2008

  9. Coyote Springs 1: Modeled Week Summer July 17, 2008

  10. Hermiston Power: Actual Operation in 2007 July 17, 2008

  11. Hermiston Power: Modeled Operation in 2007 July 17, 2008

  12. Klamath Cogen: Actual Operation in 2007 July 17, 2008

  13. Klamath Cogen: Modeled Operation in 2007 July 17, 2008

  14. More modeled starts per year… July 17, 2008

  15. Much shorter modeled runtimes… July 17, 2008

  16. Q: Why is excessive shutdown an important problem? A: Because it impacts: • wholesale power market price forecasts; and • power system carbon dioxide forecasts July 17, 2008

  17. AURORA CCCT Commitment and Dispatch Parameters July 17, 2008

  18. MIN UP Estimation July 17, 2008

  19. Coyote Springs 1: Actual Up Time HistogramN = 30 July 17, 2008

  20. Chehalis: Actual Up Time HistogramN = 78 July 17, 2008

  21. PNW CCCTs: Actual Up Time HistogramN = 1,114 July 17, 2008

  22. PNW CCCTs: Actual Up Time HistogramN = 759 Min Up = 17 hours July 17, 2008

  23. MIN Down Estimation July 17, 2008

  24. PNW CCCTs: Actual Down Time HistogramN = 1,113 July 17, 2008

  25. PNW CCCTs: Actual Down Time HistogramN = 749 Min Down = 3 hours July 17, 2008

  26. MIN Capacity Estimation July 17, 2008

  27. Coyote Springs 1: Cumulative Frequency of Operating Level (N = 14,180 hours) July 17, 2008

  28. Big Hanaford: Cumulative Frequency of Operating Level (N = 4,964) July 17, 2008

  29. Chehalis: Cumulative Frequency of Operating Level (N = 9,601 hours) July 17, 2008

  30. PNW CCCTs: Cumulative Frequency of Operating Level Curves July 17, 2008

  31. Ramp Rate Estimation July 17, 2008

  32. Coyote Springs 1: Ramp Rate Illustration July 17, 2008

  33. Minimum Number of Hours to Heat Input Factor > = .85 July 17, 2008

  34. Minimum Number of Hours to Heat Input Factor > = .90 July 17, 2008

  35. Minimum Number of Hours to Heat Input Factor > = .95 July 17, 2008

  36. Next Steps: • Firm-up existing unit and new technology operating parameters • Estimate Start-up and Shut-down costs • Use AURORA’s new “shutdown penalty” to adjust modeled CCCT operation July 17, 2008

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