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Multi-Party Politics

Multi-Party Politics. Barriers to Third Parties in US: See Duverger’s Law (last week) Assembly Size (US Congress tiny) Ballot Access Laws Rules governing territory on Nov. ballot USSC: states have ‘legitimate interest in state laws protecting two party system’. Assembly Size.

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Multi-Party Politics

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  1. Multi-Party Politics • Barriers to Third Parties in US: • See Duverger’s Law (last week) • Assembly Size (US Congress tiny) • Ballot Access Laws • Rules governing territory on Nov. ballot • USSC: states have ‘legitimate interest in state laws protecting two party system’

  2. Assembly Size

  3. Assembly Size US = 700K per district...Mexico 200K, France 100K, UK 100K More districts = fewer voters per district Fewer voters per district = more homogenous If minor party supporters geographically concentrated

  4. Multi-party politics in US • Ballot Access Laws • Set by State legislators • Catch 22 • Minor party must post X% in statewide race to have access for their candidate in next election • 1% some places,

  5. Ballot Access Rules & # of Minor Parties/Candidates AK ID MT OR WA US Senate 5 1 4 5 4 Governor 6 3 4 3 3 Number 2004 6 5a 4 5b 3 Vote share to qualify for official / major status 3% 3% <5%* 5%^ 5% Petition for new 1% 2% <5% 1.5% 100 voters party candidates at convention

  6. Ballot Access • US Presidential Elections • If no existing access, petition • Minor party vs. ‘independent’ • Varies greatly by state • 1000 signatures - 10% of votes cast in last election • CA = 158,000 sigs; NC 60,000; GA 50,000

  7. Ballot Access • How get on for 2012 • Start NOW (if allowed); w/ 2010 race • Use ballot slots of existing parties • Run in different states under different party names (Constitution Party, Taxpayer Party, Libertarian Party) • Run in some states as independent, some as under party line

  8. Ballot Access • US 2008....President • Nader (46 states) Nader 0.5% • Libertarians (45 states) Bob Barr 0.4% • Constitution (37 states) Baldwin 0.15% • Greens (32 states) McKinney 0.12% • Socialism & Liberation (12 States) • Socialist Workers (10 states) • Socialist (8 States) • AIP (3 states) Alan Keyes 0.04% • TOTAL 2008 1.5%

  9. Support for Multi-party politics • In United States • keep 2 party system 38% • no parties 28% • more parties 34%

  10. Support for Multi Party Politics • Support PR for US Congress? • US 44% yes, 49% no • WA 56% yes, 40% no • Who? • independents who ‘lean’ D or R • not strong liberal Ds • not strong liberal Rs • Men • people who distrust government

  11. Did Nader Elect Bush • 2000 US Presidential election • Gore won natl pop. vote by 500,000 • Lost FL by 500 votes, lost electoral college (271-266-1) • Nader 90,000 votes in FL • Vote stealing vs. mobilization

  12. Did Nader Elect Bush • Can we assume that minor party voters would have supported either major party candidate? • Can we assume minor party voters would have voted?

  13. Did Nader Elect Bush? • In a two-way race (2000 polls) • Of Nader voters, if just 2, who?: • Gore 47.7% • Bush 21.9% • Abstain 30.5% • 42% of Buchanan voters would have abstained

  14. Did Nader Elect Bush • did Nader elect Bush in 2000? = • did Wallace elect Nixon 1968? • did Anderson elect Carter 1980? • did Perot elect Clinton 1992? • did Perot elect Clinton in 1996? • 2008....vote stealing vs. mobilization?

  15. Multi-Party Politics in US • Minor candidates ‘crowd’ Presidential ballots • 2008 1.5% • 2004 1.0% • 2000 3.8% • 1996 10.0% • 1992 19.5% • 1988 1.0% • 1984 0.7% • 1980 8.2%

  16. Multi-party politics in US • Minor parties as ‘spoilers?’ • What to do?

  17. Prospects for a “third” party • For multi-party politics in US • Dim, but... • regional divisions emerge • major party splits • Institutional change • at state or local level? • via ballot measures?

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