Climate Change Impacts on Water Monitoring Efforts in Minnesota

1. Interagency Ground and Surface Water Monitoring Technical Workgroup St. Paul, Minnesota November 7, 2007 Some thoughts on climate change in water monitoring efforts

3. RECENT CLIMATE TRENDS IN MINNESOTA AND THE UPPER MIDWEST • WARMER WINTERS • HIGHER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES • GREATER FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL DEW POINTS • GREATER ANNUAL PRECIPITATION • MORE DAYS WITH RAIN • MORE FREQUENT HEAVY RAINS • POSITIVE TREND IN WINTER SNOWFALL From Mark Seeley, 2003

4. Climate change causes changes in the hydrologic cycle

6. Indicators of climate change impacts on water • Water temperatures (rivers, lakes, groundwater, ice) • Flows and water levels • river base flow, peak flows, floods • lake levels • Lake stratification- timing and duration • Water Quality – oxygen, nutrients, metals, sediments, clarity • Ecosystem processes- rates of primary production, nutrient cycling • Plants and animals- phenology • fish health, behavior • amphibian breeding • aquatic insects (e.g., mosquitoes) emergence Modified from Lucinda Johnson

7. “Water problems” • Too much (inundation, erosion) • Too little (low flow, drought, water supply) • Too polluted • Not suitable as habitat • In the wrong place, etc. Will climate change make these problems easier or more difficult to solve?

8. How do we estimate climate change effects on water 1) process modeling, e.g. 2xCO2 climate impact on runoff, water temperatures etc. 2) data analysis, e.g. variability, trends, critical levels of flow, water temp, dissolved oxygen

9. Projected impact of climate warming on ice lake covers

15. Projected impact on water temperatures

19. Projected impact on dissolved oxygen (Examples)

22. Impact on fish

27. Water monitoring –why? • To know about water (How much is there, what is its quality, when is it available etc.) • To see variability and long-term trends • To make water management decisions • To have information for planning • To have data for model validation • etc.

28. What data do we need?

29. Lake evaporation – more pans? • Lake ice cover (dates and thickness) • Lake level (landlocked lakes) • GW levels and WQ • Stream flow, especially small steams – subject to flash floods • Storm water runoff, flow and WQ • Water temp (streams, lakes, groundwater) • DO (lake hypolimnia) • Nutrients (wetlands, lakes, streams) – LANDUSE! • TSS • Biological indicator species • Pathogens

30. Who collects the data?

31. Existing water monitoring networks • USGS • NOAA/Weather Service • MPCA • DNR • Met Council • SWCDs • Watershed Districts • Counties • Parkboards and Cities • Etc.

32. What climate change induced trends do we already see in water data? • Reduced duration of lake ice covers • Higher water levels in small lakes • Lower water levels in Lake Superior • Higher water temps in Lake Superior • Earlier or more frequent snowmelt runoff (Lower snow melt floods) • Loss of cold-water fish habitat • Establishment of introduced & invasive species • Higher mean annual stream flows • Higher base flow

33. Minnesota’s Water Resources: Climate Change Impacts – LCCMR ongoing study • Principal Investigators: • Lucinda Johnson, Richard Axler (NRRI/UMD); • Ray Newman, Heinz Stefan, Richard Skaggs, Katherine Klink (UM/TC) • Virginia Card (Metropolitan State University) • Patrick Welle (Bemidji State University) • Cooperators: • Peter Ciborowski, Edward Swain, Bruce Wilson (MPCA) • Dave Wright, James Zandlo, Kurt Rusterholz (MN DNR) • Clarence Turner (Forest Resources Council)

34. Examples of possible impacts • Infrastructure damage • Culverts, bridges, roads • Storm sewer overflow • Degraded water quality and habitat • Increased risk to human health • Damaged water and wastewater treatment facilities • Human health risk • Degraded aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems • Reduced ecosystem services • Remediation (BMP’s; TMDL’s) Modified from Lucinda Johnson

36. Additional and Refined Monitoring

37. DEPARTMENT:POLLUTION CONTROL AGENCYSF-00006-05 (4/86)STATE OF MINNESOTA  DATE:July 23, 2007Office Memorandum  TO:David J. ThorntonAssistant CommissionerCommissioner’s OfficeFROM:Bruce WilsonResearch ScientistMunicipal DivisionPHONE:651-282-2619 SUBJECT:Climate Change and MPCA Water-Related Missions • The purpose of this memo is to propose options to assist in identifying potential long-term climate change: (1) impacts to Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) water-related missions and (2) adaptive watershed management strategies.

38. From Bruce Wilson (MPCA)(modified) • Precipitation intensities may change. Long term monitoring stations at representative storm water sites. • Sampling peak events (peak flows, sediment dynamics, channel erosion) Impacts and damages. Shock loading to lakes and streams, oscillations and assimilative capacities • Effects of more wet/dry cycles upon nutrient hysteresis in aquatic systems - especially wetlands • Water quality trend detection • Dew points, rain temperature and trout streams • Large lake dynamics • Satellite remote sensing

39. Long-term Lake monitoring: Stream flows Water levels Ice-cover Water temperatures DO in lakes Fish Macroinvertebrates

40. Examples of long-term lake and wetland monitoring: Northern temperate lakes (LTER) - Wisconsin Experimental Lakes Area (ERA) – Ontario

41. Monitoring of storm runoff events (see example in next slide)

42. Storms and Water Quality

43. Remote sensing of water resources (see example of Sultan Marshes in next slide)

44. Remote sensing

45. Access to data

46. Thank you