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The Freedom to Publish Opinion Poll Results

Results of a global survey conducted by the University of Hong Kong on the freedom to publish opinion poll results. The survey covers poll restrictions, embargo periods, codes and practices, and more.

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The Freedom to Publish Opinion Poll Results

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  1. The Freedom to Publish Opinion Poll Results June 15, 2012 Presented by Dr. Robert ChungDirector of Public Opinion Programme, The University of Hong Kong

  2. Background - Past surveys • This is the fifth study conducted by WAPOR and the first time executed by Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong. • Previous surveys were conducted in 1984, 1992, 1996 and 2002. • 49 countries participated in 1984, 55 in 1992, 78 in 1996, 66 in 2002 and 85 in 2012.

  3. Background – Survey in 2012 • Fieldwork period: April 11 to June 12, 2012. • 85 countries/regions have participated, covering about 41% of 207 countries in the world according to UN. • The main themes of the 2012 survey are: • Poll embargo prior to elections • Restrictions for conducting exit polls and publication • Awareness and conformity to codes or guidelines • Evaluation of overall poll quality, problems of conducting polls, etc.

  4. 85 countries/regions participated in 2012 • Africa (4) : Egypt , Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa • Asia (27) : Bangladesh, Bhutan, Burma, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Macau, Malaysia, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Palestinian Territories, Philippines, Qatar, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, United Arab Emirates • Europe (35) : Austria, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macedonia, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom • North America (8) : Canada, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico, Trinidad and Tobago, United States • South America (8) : Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela • Oceania (3) : Australia, Fiji, New Zealand * Countries that participated in the 2002 survey are marked in red color.

  5. Countries /regions participated-overview

  6. Countries/regions participated-Africa

  7. Countries/regions participated-Asia

  8. Countries/regions participated-Europe

  9. Countries/regions participated-North America

  10. Countries/regions participated-South America

  11. Countries/regions participated-Oceania

  12. Freedom to Publish Opinion Poll Results Survey results

  13. I. Poll Restrictions

  14. “Blackout periods” for pre-election polls More than half of the countries/regions have NO blackout periods prior to elections. Mean = 7 days (among 36 countries/regions with blackout periods) Valid base = 83

  15. Poll embargo prior to elections in 2012 compared to 2002 • 26 countries/regions had no poll embargo in both 2002 and 2012 • Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Malaysia, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, South Africa, Sweden, Thailand, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States

  16. Poll embargo prior to elections in 2012 compared to 2002 • 34 countries/regions had poll embargo in both 2002 and 2012

  17. Poll restrictions - who enforces the restrictions? Nearly 90% of the poll restrictions were initiated by Government agency or election administration office. Valid base = 38* changes with 2002 survey

  18. Poll restrictions - future developments 74% of the countries/regions expected to have no change in the rules regarding polls in the next 3-5 years. Valid base = 84

  19. Information to be published with public opinion poll results 58% of the countries/regions have to disclose geographical coverage and dates of interview as a means of code/self regulation. Valid base = 85 * Multiple answers allowed

  20. II. Exit Polls

  21. Restrictions for conducting exit polls 43% of the countries/regions cannot conduct exit polls inside the polling station. Valid base = 82 * Multiple answers allowed

  22. Restrictions for exit polls- by continents 35 out of 75 countries/regions which can conduct exit polls have restrictions that exit polls cannot be conducted inside the polling station Valid base = 75 * Multiple answers allowed

  23. Restrictions for publishing exit polls 49% of the countries/regions who conduct exit poll have legal restrictions that exit polls cannot be published before all polls in the country close. Valid base = 78 * Multiple answers allowed

  24. III. Other Polling Restrictions

  25. Restrictions on specific questions or subjects that cannot be published 12 countries/regions (14%) have such restrictions. They are Chile, China, Egypt, El Salvador, Fiji, Jordan, Kuwait, Luxembourg, Nepal, Qatar, Singapore and United Arab Emirates. Valid base = 85

  26. IV. Codes and Practices

  27. Awareness on codes/guidelines (1) 75% are aware of WAPOR Code of Ethics. Valid base = 85

  28. Awareness on codes/guidelines (2) About 76% have read the WAPOR/ESOMAR codes and practices. Valid base = 85

  29. Conformity to codes/guidelines 45%conform generally to the respective codes and practices. Valid base = 85 19%conform to other codes as well. Valid base = 80

  30. Main mode of administration for conducting polls 45% of the countries/regions conduct polls mainly in person. Valid base = 84

  31. Government polls for policy making 52% said their governments conduct polls on policy making issues. Valid base = 84

  32. Access to poll results 48% said their academics or general public can easily access poll results conducted by government. Valid base = 60

  33. V. Quality of Polls

  34. General methodological quality of polls 18% said their polls conducted in their country are of generally high quality. Valid base = 60

  35. Publication of unprofessional or unscientific poll findings 19% think that the publication of unprofessional or unscientific poll findings not a problem. Valid base = 59

  36. Major problems in the conduct of polls 67% think that unsatisfactory samples is the major problem in conducting polls. Valid base = 58* Multiple answers allowed

  37. Journalistic handling of polls 43% think that the journalistic handling by their country’s mass media is of low general quality level. Valid base = 58* changes with 2002 survey

  38. Recapitulation • 46% countries has some kind of “blackout periods” for pre-election polls election polls, this calls for attention. • 74% expected no change in next 3-5 years • 21% either forbid exit poll or never conducted any • 14% forbid specific questions or subjects in general polls • 18% considered polls conducted in their country to be of high quality • 43% considered the journalistic handling of polls by their country’s mass media to be of low quality

  39. End of presentation

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