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Seasonal Hydrologic Forecast (NDJ)

Seasonal Hydrologic Forecast (NDJ). From Shrad Shukla and Amy McNally. Seasonal Soil moisture Forecast Skill (Correlation). Skill (correlation) of the soil moisture forecast made on November 5 th of each year between 1993-2012.

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Seasonal Hydrologic Forecast (NDJ)

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  1. Seasonal Hydrologic Forecast(NDJ) From Shrad Shukla and Amy McNally

  2. Seasonal Soil moisture Forecast Skill (Correlation) • Skill (correlation) of the soil moisture forecast made on November 5th of each year between • 1993-2012. • Skill is calculated by comparing hydrologic model (VIC) generated SM forecasts with • model simulations that were driven by observed atmospheric forcings.

  3. Soil Moisture Forecast for NDJ-2013 CFSv2 based soil moisture forecast Median of the SM forecasts for NDJ-2013 Climatology based Soil moisture forecast • NDJ soil moisture (monthly mean) forecasts for the domain bounded by Latitude 20S to 80N and 360E to 460 E. (same as in the slide #2) • Drier the normal soil moisture is predicted for the upcoming season however it wont be as below normal as it was during the year 2010.

  4. WRSI forecast for NDJ • Initial conditions from Sept/October show that WRSI is already below the historical average for this region and it will likely be below average throughout the season. • For the viable pixels (where there is a start-of-growing season) in the forecast domain an average of ~6% have high WRSI values (above 95), while 70% have rarely support crop growth (WRSI<60). • The ensemble avg of the forecast suggests that an even smaller percentage will meet water requirements (~2%) and a greater percentage (~82%) will not support maize. The ensemble average is indicated by the solid blue line, while the historical average is the solid black line.

  5. WRSI forecast for NDJ 2013 • Summary statistics for the historical and forecast WRSI. Historical 1993/4-2012/3 Forecast • Historical years with similar average WRSI and rainfall as the ensemble avg forecast.

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