Climate Change, Recreational Demand and the Future of Lake Champlain Game Fisheries

1. Climate Change, Recreational Demand and the Future of Lake Champlain Game Fisheries Chris Childers, Cara Schacher, Jeffrey Passman, Lauren Schmitt, Cody Warren

2. Game Fisheries The fish people fish for In Lake Champlain, that’s Trout Bass Perch Salmon

3. Questions Whats the status of the game fish pops in the lake (Are they self-sustaining? endangered?) How do people place a demand on these populations? How are these populations managed? How will climate change affect the communities these fish live in? What factors are most important to managers in the face of climate change?

4. Why is it important? People like fishing Economic draw to the region The fish were here first

5. Approach 3 angles basic response of typical Lake Champlain fish to changing water temperatures present and predicted changes in community structure resulting from range shifts and altered food webs the importance of VT’s fish and wildlife service, providing an economic draw to the region through management of the fisheries

6. Climate Change

7. Climate Modeling Start with SRES -IPCC’s Special Report on Emission Scenarios A1F1 – 1000 ppm CO2 B2 – 500 ppm CO2 (Nakićenović, N., et al. 2000.)

8. Climate Modeling AOGCM - Atmospheric Ocean General Circulation Model Inputs – SRES and Physical Processes of Cell Outputs – Temp. Precip. Humidity Hayhoe et al., 2007.

9. Climate Models • Heat Waves • Precipitation • Extreme Events • Soil Moisture • Drought • Stream Flow • Winter Storms • Timing of Seasons • Sea Level Rise NECIA, 2006

10. Climate Models Connection from Air to Water? As Air Temp Rises, Water Temp Rises Not a linear function Logistics Curve suggest evaporative cooling in warmer temps Two lines reflect seasonal heating and cooling ‘hysteresis’ Mohseni et al. 2003

11. Climate Models Heat Index and Migrating States NECIA, 2006 Mary Watzin Presentation

12. Effects on Individual Habitat Ficke et al. 2007 Cold Blooded – Temperature Controls Metabolism Optimal Ranges and Lethal Ranges

13. Effects on Individual Habitat C = (Mr+Ma+SDA) + (F+U) + (Gs+Gr) Equation derived in 1977 by Kitchell et al. C= Energy Consumption M terms = metabolic rates and increases due to activity F+U = Waste G= Growth of Reproductive or Somatic Cells Yellow Perch Energy Budget From Ficke et al 2007.

14. Effects on Individual Habitat Dissovled Oxygen -At 0°C dissolved oxygen content is 14.6mg/L whereas at 25°C, only 8.3mg/L Altered Hydrologic Flows Increased Pollutant Toxicity

15. Thermal Habitat: A Case Study Largemouth Bass Rainbow Trout Channel Catfish

16. Focus on Largemouth Bass

17. Thermal Habitat: A Case Study • Natural processes are unsystematic • Attempt to encompasses a realistic fluctuation of temperatures • Fish exposed to a 32 day period of cycling temperatures

18. Thermal Habitat: A Case Study • Temperature cycled consistently from 20-30°C • Rate of change: 0.3±0.01°C/min • Maximum temperature occurring at midnight • Minimum temperature occurring at midday

19. Thermal Habitat: A Case Study • Results • Trails were stopped when the fish experienced a loss of equilibrium • Temperature range for largemouth bass • Mean maximum 35.6-37.3°C • Mean minimum 5.9-7.7°C

20. Case Study: Yellow Perch(Perca flavescens) Photo courtesy of US Fish and Wildlife Service

21. About Perca flavescens • Size: Up to 18 inches • Yellow/Green color with 6-8 dark vertical bands • Compressed, elongate body • Adults eat small fish, crustaceans, insects • Fry eat copepods and cladocerans

22. Habitat Considerations • Prefer lake shallows • Ideal Summer Temp: 69-77˚F Adult Temperature SI Juvenile Temperature SI

23. Predictions • Juveniles will be most sensitive to temperature increases, and changes in prey populations • Decreased vegetatation • Increased turbidity • Ideal pH= 6.5-8.5

24. Could Climate Change be a good thing for Yellow Perch? • More successful year-classes due to: • Higher water levels (MO River) • Increased water temperature during hatching

25. Communities

26. Communities The fish we enjoy are products of their communities Have been (relatively) stable Climate Change could upset the balance

27. Range Shifts Climate change -> increased water temperatures Redistribution of thermal habitat throughout the lake Not the same for each fish

28. New Communities Water temps increase-> individual species shift range-> new communities! Uncertainty Diseases? Parasites? Competitors? Similar fish, similar shifts? New communities-> new ecosystems services, products

29. Food Webs Another driver of community structure -> food! Competition, predation

30. Food Webs Very interconnected Kim and LaBar 1996 Trout, salmon and walleye Rainbow smelt Similar to range shifts Food supply moves, follow it What if you can’t?

31. Ecotourism

32. Ecotourism and Climate Change • One of the most important and rapidly growing service industries • Closely tied with environmental quality • Climate dependent • Mixed reactions

33. Ecotourism and Climate Change • Fixed waterfront facilities vulnerable to flux in water levels • Lowered lake levels will cause conversion to dry land, eventually • Lack of water results in less habitat • Decreases in spawning • Further loss of tourists

34. Ecotourism and Climate Change • In Wall’s 1998 paper, he noted that “…declines in the striped bass sport fishery associated with reduced freshwater inflows into the San Francisco bay and delta have been estimated to have cost the state of California $28 million since 1970.” • What does this mean for Lake Champlain?

35. Ecotourism and Lake Champlain • Several salmonoid species are at the southern limits of their range in New England • Projected to be partially or completely displaced • Will have to travel to other regions where these species are still available • Loss of income to support conservation projects

36. Management

37. Vermont Fish and Wildlife Dept. 2009 budget= $17million Stock: landlocked Atlantic Salmon, steelhead, brook, lake, brown and rainbow trout. Also salmon fry and walleye fingerlings. Almost 600,000 fish between Lake and inland waters

38. Stocking Loss of genetic variation Due to bottleneck Harder to adapt Wild hybrids? Already artificial populations Need as much help as we can give

39. Fishing Most of the demand comes from tournaments Increasing, leveling off, decline Costs, rules

40. Problems Boat Traffic Fish Handling

41. Conclusions

42. We Conclude… • Species-dependent range shifts will break up communities • Magnitude and direction of all shifts is still uncertain • New communities will form • New food webs, competition, predation-> stress

43. We Recommend… • May be too late to prevent range shifts • Adaptive management • Intensive monitoring in years to come • Evaluation of success and methods

44. We Conclude… • Vermonters pay a bundle for VFWD • $17 million! • Already very carefully managed • Some loss of genetic variation

45. We Recommend… • No need for complete overhaul of VFWD practices or procedures • Focus should be on clean disease free rearing facilities and maintaining genetic variation

46. Other Thoughts • # tournament permits has declined recently • VFWD recently raised the price of permits • Lower price to encourage participation • Better co-ordination by tournament organizers • Minimize boat traffic • Encourage good fish handling procedures

47. Questions?