Future Internet Towards 2020 A Systemic Change Perspective

1. Future Internet Towards 2020 A Systemic Change Perspective Hans Schaffers Aalto University School of Economics , Centre of Knowledge and Innovation Research (CKIR) E-mail: hans.schaffers@aalto.fi 2nd FIA Roadmap Workshop 25.06.2012

2. The FIA Research Roadmap was built around four key questions • What is changing (society, technology) • What is the vision, what are the impacts • What are the challenges and gaps • What are the solutions and research needs • Takes wider view than technology, addresses socio-economic-business challenges • Covers FI research but also the research approaches and the innovation process • Limited involvement of communities and dialogue • How will the Roadmap be used, by whom, for what impact

3. Roadmapping opportunities and limitations • Tool originally used in business and research environments • Management of research and innovation • Aims for planning of research and technology development • Not a forecast or prediction • Links research, technologies and objectives • Does not explicitly address systemic linkages • Useful as a tool for establishing dialogue, helps achieving consensus and stimulates debate in planning environment Source: Bmaps

4. Foresight and roadmapping Strategic management of research, technology, innovation Awareness, anticipating and preparing for futures and changes Innovation capabilities and conditions Looking also at alternative futures and scenarios Addresses complex systems and systemic linkages; facilitating systems innovation Based on dialogue, participation; supporting the actors Tools: scenarios, systems science, dialogues and debates, Delphi surveys Roadmap as visualisation of foresight exercise outcome

5. The Internet “ecosystem” Source: ISOC The Internet ecosystem comprises a variety of actors and communities that develop the Internet, make it work, and using it • Technologists, engineers, architects, creatives, standards organisations • Global and local organisations e.g. managing addressing (ICANN) • Operators, vendors, developers • Internet users and co-creators • Policy and decision makers The Internet ecosystem embodies and integrates interlinked developments • Technological change • Business and industry change • Policy and regulatory change • Societal change and transformation The ecosystemic nature of the Internet requires a different approach to preparing for alternative futures than roadmapping

6. Internet ecosystem visualisations demonstrate different viewpoints Infrastructure Network Industry Social

7. Internet ecosystem and systemic change Work and life, innovation Communication, collaboration Social networking Criminality Cities and regions Business strategies Research and innovation Business models Value networks Using and shaping the Internet Industry change, value networks, business models Technological interplay, disruptive change Policy development, legal/regulatory change Access regulation Privacy, security Identity Net neutrality Competition Network technologies and architectures Cloud computing Ínternet of Things Smart devices Engineering and experiment Macro Socio-Technical Landscape

8. Multi-level perspective on systemic innovation Source: Geels , Kemp, Rotmans a.o.

9. Drivers of systemic change: macro changes, niche developments, resolving of tussles … Work and life, innovation Communication, collaboration Social networking Criminality Cities and regions Business strategies Research and innovation Business models Value networks Future Internet Architecture Open innovation Standards openness Internet value networks Net neutrality Privacy, security, identity Societal uses of Internet Green Internet Access regulation Market regulation, competition Privacy, security, identity Net neutrality Network technologies Cloud computing Ínternet of Things Smart devices Engineering and experiment For socio-economic tussles: see SESERV project Niches and disruptive technologies Existing regimes vs drivers of change

10. Socio-technical debates and Internet futures Future Internet Architecture Open innovation Standards openness Internet value networks Net neutrality Privacy, security, identity Societal uses of Internet Green Internet

11. 1) Future Internet and smart cities FIREBALL White Paper (2012)

12. Developing towards a smarter city requires “systemic change” An innovation roadmap is a tool for creating consensus and understanding about potential futures and about pathways towards these futures Understanding smart city dynamic development as “systemic change” requires understanding of interplays and co-evolution regarding technology developments, human behaviours, policies and strategies Living Labs, policy experiments may act as “niches” where opportunities are provided for limited scale innovation and learning (introduction, use, evaluation, modification -> wider scale adoption

13. Technologies for smart(er) cities

14. Foresight roadmap for Future Internet and smart cities (partial and preliminary)

15. Smart city strategies implementation prospects and hurdles

16. Smart cities challenges for next years Networks of Future Internet testbed facilities and living labs within and across smart cities and regions may become the backbone of European innovation ecologies and value networks – Horizon 2020 Capabilities and resources, including experiment facilities , user oriented methodologies, service offerings and collaboration models enabling access and use of facilities and services should evolve Smart Cities are environments to experiment technologies and applications, however the potential for business creation and entrepreneurship should be stimulated (e.g. DAIR, Canada) Open innovation and citizen empowerment requires finding new balances between top-down steering and bottom-up initiative Assessment of the impact and benefits of “smarter cities” in terms of value created for citizens. There is a lack of evidence showing impact, how can we achieve and measure the impact and value added of smart city initiatives?

17. 2) Guiding the FIRE Ecosystem towards 2020 AmpliFIRE project under negotiation (FP7-ICT.1.6)

18. 3) Internet and public safety

19. Final remarks FIA Roadmap may adopt more explicitly a systemic innovation and change perspective Addressing systemic issues of technology systems as socio-technical systems, including adoption bottlenecks FIA Roadmap may focus more in-depth on specific issues or “subsystems” It may turn into a more or less permanent foresight activity, building upon a community representing diverse interests regarding the future Internet It might be a joint undertaking supported by various projects and programmes

20. Selected references Benkler, Y (2006) The Wealth of Networks -> battle over institutionalecology of the Internet, legal and regulatorydebates Könöllä, T. (2007) InnovationRoadmap: ExploringAlternativeFutures of Industrial Renewal-> appliestransition concept to roadmapping Geels, F. (2006) Major systemschangethroughstepwisereconfiguration -> and otherliteratureon “transition management” FIA Roadmap (2011) ISOC (2010) The Internet Ecosystem FIREBALL White Paper (2012) www.fireball4smartcities.eu IFTF (2011) A Planet of Civic Laboratories SAFECITY project (FI PPP) SESERV project -> tussles. FIA Book 2011, 2012 have cases Oxford Internet Institute (2010), Towards a Future Internet