Development of a national strategy for adaptation to the impacts of climatic changes in Cyprus CYPADAPT LIFE10 ENV/CY/

1. Development of a national strategy for adaptation to the impacts of climatic changes in Cyprus CYPADAPT LIFE10 ENV/CY/000723 Dr Maria Zacharioudodou National Technical University of Athens zacharioum@gmail.com DOHA 6 December 2012

2. Project Target : a strategic plant for adaptation • Will climatic changes effect the Region and how? • What are the existing Policies ? • Are there any Nation or Regional adaptation plants in place? • What are the impacts of climatic changes in Cyprus • What are the measures taken and what sectors will be most vulnerable?

3. FIRST STEP Review the observed climatic changes and Predictions

4. observed changes to climate worldwide Glacier National Park and Reserve's White Thunder Ridge August1941 (left) and August 2004 (right) (USGS, 2004) 1941-

5. Mediterranean and the Middle East Regional Climatic models shows that Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) are likely to be greatly affected by • Decrease in precipitation • increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts • Increase temperature • Increase hot weather conditions • Increase in sea surface temperatures • WarmingLevantine Basin at average rate 0.065oC per year. • Mediterranean have been rising about twice as much as those of the global oceans)

6. sea surface temperature (SST) 1996-2011 .

7. strongest drying is expected in the eastern Mediterranean and North Africa: • ‒10% to ‒25% in 2010-2039 • ‒20% to ‒35% in 2040-2069 • ‒30% to ‒50% 2070-2099. Future Climate– RR Decrease in precipitation Turkey and the Caucasus may become

8. Future Climate– Increase temperature JAA The regional warming will be gradual 1-3°C in the near-future (2010-2039) , 3-5°C in the mid-century period 3.5-7°C by the end of the century

9. Future Climate Increase hot weather conditions PRESENT Hot days S-EMME, such are common occurring up to 5 months/year (Gulf region). FUTURE TX>35oC, S-ΕΜΜΕ are expected to face severe warm conditions with 2 months additional of hot days/year

10. highlights the exceptional warming expected in the EMME region. minimum average temperature will increase Future Climate– Increase hot weather conditions DJF JAA minimum temperature

11. Decrease precipitation in Cyprus Annual average precipitation (mm) year 1901-02 till 2007-08

12. Decrease precipitation in Cyprusannual mean precipitation in Cyprus for the period 1905 to 2005

13. Water Stress Index among European countries. Cyprus ranks first Water Stress Index among European countries. Cyprus ranks first

14. Increase temperature annual mean air temperature (oC) from 1892 till 2010 in Nicosia Pashiardis, 2011

15. SECOND STEP Existing national and regional adaptation strategies

16. Existing national and regional adaptation strategies worldwide • 58 national strategies on adaptation to climatic change (13 NAPs and more than 45 NAPAs) have been overview to identify countries that • have developed adaptation strategies and • share thesame challenges and characteristics with Cyprus

17. Adaptation plans examined • Focus on Mediterranean countries • Finland • France • Spain • Malta • Tunisia

18. Cyprus: Similar challenges and characteristics • Mediterranean basin. • Water stress • rely heavily on the desalination • arid and semi-arid areas • Decrease in precipitation • Coastal erosion - (large coastlines)(coastal economic development) • Energy: Increase energy requirements /Malta and Cyprus are highly energy dependent countries / oil imports • Tourism: ( increase in temperature ,/heat waves. • Forests: increased forest fire risks • Agriculture (declined)

19. A Strategic Plan should be in conformity with the policies WHAT ARE THE EXISTING POLICIES? WHAT ARE AIMING? Within the scope of the project the worldwide and The European policies related to climatic changes and adaptation were examined and assessed

20. Policies related to climatic changes are Aiming to • Mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (primarily focused in the past) and to • adapt to the adverse impactsof climate in order to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems. • All policies outlined were examined and assessed in relation to the adaptation strategy to be developed in Cyprus

21. Existing policies on climate change worldwide • United Nations FrameworkConventionon Climate Change (UNFCCC).Rio de Janeiro 1992 ( foresees that all contracting parties • Develop appropriate and integrated plans for adapting to the impacts of climate change • Take into account f climate changes into the national policies) • Montreal Protocol • Kyoto Protocol –Japan1997 • (reduce their GHG emissions)

22. Existing policies on climate change worldwide • NairobiWork Programme 2006 ( to support action towards climate change adaptation ) • Bali Road Map2007 • .(Bali Action Plan, structured upon five pylons , (i) shared vision, (ii) mitigation, (iii) adaptation,(iv) technology and (v) financing • Cancún agreementsMexico 2010. • commitment for a maximum rise of 2oC /diffusion of new innovative climate-friendly technologies /establishment of a “Green Climate Fund” • Durban Platform UNFCCC South Africa, 2011 • Extend the Kyoto Protocol /New reduction agreement

23. EU Legislation and policies EU legislation on climate is rather vast and it is mainly focused on to the following areas: • Greenhouse Gas Monitoring and Reporting • EU emissions trading system • Effort sharing decision • Carbon capture and storage • Transport/Fuels • Ozone layer protection • Fluorinated gases

24. EU Legislation and policies • the European Climate Change Program (ECCP). • (2000-2004) second ECCP (2005 • EU Climate and Energy Package2007 • Other Complementary legislation: • Green and White Paper on adaptation • Green Paper “ Forest • “Climate Change and Water, Coasts and Marine Issues” (2009) document

25. Legislation and policies examined • “Climate Change and Water, Coasts and Marine Issues” (2009) document(accompanying White Paper) • White Paper “Together for Health: A strategic approach for the EU 2008-2013 (2007) • Green Paper “ Forest protection and information in the EU: preparing forests for climate change • Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council on • the challenge of water scarcity and droughts in the European Union” 2007 • “Halting the loss of biodiversity 2010 – and beyond (2006 EU Integrated Maritime • Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection 2006 • European Environment and Health Action Plan 2004-2010

26. EU Legislation and policies examined • Marine Strategy Framework Directive 2008/56/EC • - Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) in Europe (2002/413/EC) • Water framework Directive 2000/60/EC • Floods Directive [2007/60/EC • Effort Sharing Decision. 406/2009/EC, • sets annual emission limits for 2020 to each Member State ranging from -20% to +20% compared to the 2005 levels,/ Cyprus allocated reduction target of 5%. • -Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) • http://uest.ntua.gr/cypadapt/wp-content/uploads/DELIVERABLE1.3.pdf

27. Assessment of impacts and vulnerability to Climate change for the main economic sectors of Cyprus

28. Vulnerability = Impacts – Adaptive capacityImpacts = sensitivity X exposure • Sensitivity degree to which a system is affected by climate changes, • exposure is the degree to which a system is exposed to climate changes and their impacts • Principal aim was to identify the relevant • key impacts • Adaptation measures • Identify Indicators relevant to each sector. • Although there were no sufficient data to evaluate all indicators an attempt was made to asses the vulnerability

29. Assessment of impacts • based on their • magnitude, • timing, • distribution, • persistence and • reversibility of impacts • Indicators (Sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity) are evaluated on a 7-degree scale ranging from “none” to “very high”.

30. Assessment of vulnerability • Water resources, • Soils, • Agriculture, • Forests, • Tourism • Coastal zones, • Biodiversity, • Energy, • Fisheries and aquaculture, • Public Health, • Infrastructure • 11 sectors

31. Main Climatic Factors • Increase in temperature • Decrease in precipitation • Increase in frequency of extreme events • heat waves • hail • droughts • Floods • Increases in CO 2 • Increase in atmospheric O3 • Sea level rise • Result in most severe impacts in Cyprus

32. Vulnerability was assessed for the following impacts WATER RESOURCES • Water availability (High) • Water quality (moderate to High) • Floods • Increase in frequency of Droughts(High) • AGRICULTURE • Crop yield (Moderate High) • Soil fertility • Pests and diseases (not evaluated) • Damages to crops from extreme weather events (Moderate) • Livestock productivity (not evaluated) • Costs for livestock catering (not evaluated)

33. Vulnerability was assessed for the following impact categories TOURISM • Warmer summers (moderate) • Warmer winters • Heat waves • Water availability (Moderate • Storms, waves and floods • Biodiversity attractions • Coastal erosion FORESTSDieback of tree species, insect attacks and diseases (High) • Fires (Moderate) • Floods, wind throws and storm damages • Forest growth (not evaluated)

34. Vulnerability was assessed for the following impact categories • SOILS • Soil erosion (by wing and/or rain water) (Moderate • Landslides • Contamination (heavy metals, nitrates, phosphates, al saturation) • Soil Stalinization - sodification • Desertification (High) • FISHERIES • Quantity and diversity of fish stocks (not evaluated) • Fish stock physical environment (not evaluated) • Cost implications for fishermen (not evaluated) • INFRASTRUCURE • Infrastructure damage due to floods (Urban Sea Floods) • Infrastructure damage due to landslides (not evaluated)

35. Vulnerability was assessed for the following impacts BOIDIVERSITY Distribution of plant species in terrestrial ecosystem (M) Distribution of animal species in terrestrial ecosystem (M) Marine biodiversity (not evaluated) COASTAL ZONES Coastal storm flooding and inundation (not evaluated) Coastal erosion (Moderate Degradation of coastal ecosystems (not evaluated) ENERGYRenewable energy yield • Efficiency of thermal power plants; and • Demand for electricity and cooling/ heating

36. Vulnerability was assessed for the following impact categories • PBULIC HEALTHDirect impacts: • . Deaths and health problems related to heat waves and high temperatures, (Moderate • Deaths and injuries from floods/storms, • Deaths and injuries from landslides and • Deaths and injuries from fires. Indirect impacts: • Vector-borne and rodent-borne diseases, • Water- borne and food-borne diseases, • . Climate-related effects upon nutrition, • Air pollution related diseases. • http://uest.ntua.gr/cypadapt/wp-content/uploads/DELIVERABLE1.2.pdf

37. examples • Assessment of Overall vulnerability to Climate change for the main economic sectors of Cyrus

38. Overall vulnerability assessment of the water resources in Cyprus to climate changes

39. Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts on the water resources of Cyprus

40. Overall vulnerability assessment of soil resources in Cyprus to climate changes

41. Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts on the soil resources of Cyprus

42. Overall vulnerability assessment of forests in Cyprus to climate changes

43. Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts on the forests of Cyprus

44. Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts on the forests of Cyprus

45. Annex I: Vulnerability scores for all Impacts

46. Annex I: Vulnerability scores

47. Annex I: Vulnerability scores

48. Annex I: Vulnerability scores

49. Annex I: Vulnerability scores

50. THANK YOU