International Political Science Association 20th World Congress Fukuoka, July 9 - 13, 2006

1. International Political Science Association20th World Congress Fukuoka, July 9 - 13, 2006 Political Atlas of the World: AN EXPERIMENT WITH 5 INDICES Andrei Melville, Yuri Polunin, Mikhail Ilyin, Mikhail Mironyuk, Elena Meleshkina, Ivan Timofeev Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO-University), Institute for Public Programming, “Expert” magazine Please do not quote without permission of the authors

2. DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS & EVALUATION OF POLITICAL SYSTEMS AND REGIMES • Ted Robert Gurr et al.: POLITY II, POLITY III, POLITY IV (Indicators of Democracy and Autocracy) • Tatu Vanhanen: Index of Democratization (Competition & Participation) • Freedom House: Political Rights & Civil Liberties • Bertelsmann Stiftung & BTI Board Bertelsmann: Transformation Index • Transparency International: Corruption Perception Index, Global Corruption Barometer • A.T. Kearney & Foreign Policy Magazine: Globalization Index • The Fund for Peace & Foreign Policy Magazine: Failed States Index • Journalists without Borders: Press Freedom Index • Cato Institute: Economic Freedom of the World • UNDP: Human Development Report • World Economic Forum: Global Competitiveness Report • World Bank research projects • etc.

3. POLITICAL ATLAS OF THE WORLD Project of MGIMO-University and “Expert” magazine Director of the project - Andrei Melville Co-Director (mathematics and statistics) - Yuri Polunin Consultants - Mikhail Ilyin, Elena Meleshkina, Tatyana Alexeeva, Victor Sergeev, Oxana Kharitonova Deputy Director -Mikhail Mironyuk Deputy Co-Director (mathematics and statistics) – Ivan Timofeev 50 country experts, assistants, editors, etc.

4. STRUCTURE OF THE PROJECT3 tracks:(1) Encyclopedia of Political Systems of the World(2) Multi-dimensionalIndices and Ratings of 192 (+) countries(3) Multi-dimensional classification of 192 (+) countries and analytical reports

5. ASSUMPTIONS • Multi-dimensional comparative analysis and evaluation – vs. – one-dimensional • Complex variables • Statistical databases (UN, UNESCO, World Bank, WTO, International Health Organization, SIPRI, Inter-Parliamentary Union, national statistics, national constitutions and laws, etc.) • Quantification of qualitative information • Statistical analysis (regression, correlation, factorial, discriminant, etc. types of analysis)

6. 5 INDICES • Index of state consistency • Index of international influence • Index of national threats • Index of institutional foundations of democracy • Quality of life index

7. SOURCES OF DATA • UN, UNDP, UNESCO, FAO, WHO, UNAIDS • World Bank (World Development Indicators) • IMF • WTO • WIPO • SIPRI • Inter-Parliamentary Union • National Constitutionsand Laws • Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research • Center for Systemic Peace • Federation of American Scientists • Political Handbook of the World (Congressional Quarterly Press) • Encyclopaedia Britannica • National statistics, etc.

8. SPSS data base(for multi-dimensionalindices and ratings) 192 countries (+) 70 variables 13,400 figures

9. INDEX OF STATE CONSISTENCY • Duration of sovereign stateness • Foreign aid, % of GNI • Indebtedness • Foreign military presence/deployment in the country • Casualties of internal conflicts • Regions involved in internal conflicts • Intensity of internal conflicts • Applications for patents by residents – vs. applications by non-residents • Ethnic composition (share of ethnic majority) • Exchange rate regimes

10. INDEX OF INTERNATIONAL INFLUENCE • Share of world GDP • Share of world goods and services exports • Contribution to the UN regular budget • IMF member’s voting power • Membership in the Paris club (official creditors) • Permanent membership in the UN Security Council • Share of world population • Nobel prize winners

11. INDEX OF INTERNATIONAL INFLUENCE (cont.) • Military expenditure (in constant US dollars) • Armed forces personnel • Nuclear weapons • Advanced military systems • Military deployments abroad

12. INDEX OF NATIONAL THREATS • Threats of external aggression • Terrorist threats (from abroad or within) • Territorial disputes • Separatist and/or antigovernment activities • Nonviolent secessionist movements • Military governments or attempts of military coups

13. INDEX OF NATIONAL THREATS (cont.) • Undiversified exports (one or two primary export commodities) • Constant trade deficit • Dependence on fuel imports • Probability of natural disasters • Water shortage • Undernourishment and famine • Depopulation • Excessive migration • HIV/AIDS epidemic

14. INDEX OF INSTITUTIONAL FOUNDATIONS OF DEMOCRACY • Parliamentary elections competition • Head of the executive elections competition • Duration of an uninterrupted minimal competition tradition (since 1945) • Electoral inclusiveness (share of registered voters to total population) • Share of women in parliament (lower chamber)

15. INDEX OF INSTITUTIONAL FOUNDATIONS OF DEMOCRACY (cont.) • Performance of democratic institutions - no military coups or unconstitutional regime changes - not more than two terms held by the head of state/executive (former and acting) - no referendum to extend term for the head of state/executive - competitive elections without interruption - influence of parliament on the appointment of the government

16. QUALITY OF LIFE INDEX • Life expectancy at birth • Death rate (combined) • Infant mortality • GDP per capita • Combined gross enrolment ratio for primary, secondary and tertiary schools • Public health expenditure per capita

17. 5 indices:an experiment with discriminant analysis • Samples of countries for discriminant analysis • Countries’ rankings

18. Index of state consistencyCountries in the sample for discriminant analysis • Sufficient state consistency: Australia, Austria, Brazil, Canada, China, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, USA • Insufficient state consistency: Afghanistan, Angola, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, the Central African Republic, Chad, the Democratic Republic Congo, Ethiopia, Georgia, Haiti, Iraq, Kyrgyzstan, Mauritania, Moldova, Nepal, Rwanda, Serbia and Montenegro (prior to dissolution), Somalia, Sudan, Tajikistan

19. Index of state consistency (0 - 10): examples

20. Index of international influenceCountries in the sample for discriminant analysis • Relatively high influence Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Iran, Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, UK • Relatively low influence Afghanistan, Bolivia, Botswana, Congo, Estonia, Georgia, Iceland, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Liberia, Malawi, Mongolia, Namibia, Paraguay, Rwanda, Slovenia, Somalia, Uruguay, the Zambia

21. Index of international influence (0 - 10): examples

22. Index of national threatsCountries in the sample for discriminant analysis • Relatively high level of threats Afghanistan, Angola, Bangladesh, Burkina-Faso, Cambodia, Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Georgia, India, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Liberia, Myanmar, Niger, Philippines, Somalia, Tajikistan, the Zambia. • Relatively low level of threats Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Qatar, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, the United Arab Emirates, Uruguay.

23. Index of national threats (0 - 10): examples

24. Index of institutional foundations of democracyCountries in the sample for discriminant analysis • Sufficient institutional foundations Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Costa-Rica, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland, UK, USA. • Insufficient institutional foundations Angola, Bahrain, Belarus, Cameroon, China, Congo, Cuba, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Ivory Coast, Jordan, Korea (North), Laos, Libya, Myanmar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Turkmenistan, the United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Zimbabwe.

25. Index of institutional foundations of democracy (0-10): examples

26. Quality of life indexCountries in the sample for discriminant analysis • Relatively high quality of life Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, USA. • Relatively low quality of life Angola, Benin, Burkina-Faso, Burundi, the Central African Republic, Chad, Dominican Republic, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, the Zambia, Zimbabwe.

27. Quality of life index (0 - 10): examples

28. CORRELATIONS BETWEEN INDICES • General trends • Deviations • Anomalies

29. CORRELATIONS BETWEEN INDICES

35. CORRELATIONS WITH OTHER INDICES

36. CORRELATIONS WITH OTHER INDICES (cont.)

37. RUSSIA AND THE WORLD 1. Considerable level of state consistency • Russia is in # 27 rank of the State consistency index after China (12), Italy (18), Belgium (25). • Leaders are USA (1), Japan (2), Germany (4), France (7).

38. RUSSIA AND THE WORLD 2. Profound international influence • Russia is # 7 (after USA, China, Japan, Germany, France and UK and ahead of India, Italy, Canada, Brazil). • 11 leaders of the rating are G8 + China and India

39. RUSSIA AND THE WORLD 3. Moderate national threats • Russia is in # 81 rank of the national threats index together with Israel and South Korea. • Russia faces a variety of national threats (terrorism, territorial disputes, undiversified exports, depopulation, HIV/AIDS epidemic, etc.) • Russia is surrounded by a wide zone of countries with gravenational threats (Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Azerbaijan, India, etc.)

40. RUSSIA AND THE WORLD 4. Fairly average institutional foundations of democracy • Russia is # 93 (lower than Peru but higher than South Africa) • Leaders of the rating are Switzerland, Canada, Netherlands, Denmark and Norway; USA are # 18.

41. RUSSIA AND THE WORLD 5. Average quality of life • Russia is # 73 (Bulgaria, Brazil, Mexico, etc.) • Leaders of the rating are Luxembourg, Ireland, Norway,USA, Iceland, Australia, etc.)

42. An experiment with factor analysis • Searching for the principle components • Presentation of countries in the components’ space • Analysis of structures, composed by countries in the components’ space

43. Principle components and their explanatory potential

44. 5 indices in the components’ space (components 1 and 2)

45. Countries in the components’ space (components 1 and 2)

46. to be continued…