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Risk Perception, Assessment and Management

Risk Perception, Assessment and Management. Environmental Risk. Prior to 1980s assumed that pollutants had a threshold level, below which they were harmless Increasing contradictory evidence, especially with carcinogens Initial approach was to demand zero levels

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Risk Perception, Assessment and Management

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  1. Risk Perception, Assessment and Management

  2. Environmental Risk • Prior to 1980s assumed that pollutants had a threshold level, below which they were harmless • Increasing contradictory evidence, especially with carcinogens • Initial approach was to demand zero levels • Came to understand that zero not possible • Led to development of field of environmental risk assessment

  3. Definitions • Risk -- the probability of injury, disease or death under specific circumstance (Environmental protection agency, EPA) • Health – a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being, not merely the absence of disease or infirmity (WHO) • Hazard – the agent or means by which an adverse effect can occur in a particular situation

  4. Definitions • Risk perception – what people believe poses a risk or hazard • Risk assessment – quantifying the risk associated with a hazard • Risk management – evaluating whether real or perceived risks are acceptable, and if not, addressing them

  5. Risk Perspectives

  6. Risk Perspectives

  7. Risk Assessment Model

  8. Hazard Identification • First indication that a hazard exists • Initiator of the Risk Assessment process • Conventionally thought of as toxicological evidence • Can be more broadly viewed as any initiator • contaminant levels -- releases • health concerns -- public outcry

  9. Dose-Response Assessment • Also termed toxicity assessment • Commonly presented as dose-responsecurve • Generally produced in animal studies • Assumes response of the population follows Gaussian statistics (normal distribution) • Capable of detecting risks ~1%

  10. Extending Dose-Response Data to Environmentally Relevant Doses • Environmental contaminants normally found at much lower doses than used in animal studies • Many methods available to extrapolate • Controversial because results can differ widely • Generally, no data to prove or prove false any approach

  11. Carcinogens • A carcinogen is any substance or radiation that is an agent directly involved in causing cancer. • EPA uses linear model – risk decreases with dose but always some risk no matter how small the dose • Calculates a slope factor (SF) – risk per unit dose, • EPA maintains a data base of slope factors

  12. Exposure Assessment

  13. Key Steps in Exposure Assessment • Identify significant pathways • Determine concentrations in environmental media that are contacted • Assign exposure factors • Calculate chemical intake • Adjust for administered vs. absorbed dose

  14. Understand the physical, chemical and biological properties of the agent to assess fate and transport potential of the agent • Understand the system and specific fate and transport processes that result in elevated concentrations reaching the organism • Understand the behavior of the organism to assess contact with the media • Eliminate pathways where concentration or contact is likely to be low

  15. Calculate Chemical Intake Example: intake of drinking water

  16. Risk Characterization • Last step in the risk assessment process • Integrates first three steps • hazard identification • toxicity assessment • exposure assessment • determines probability of an adverse impact to individuals or to a defined population • provides the basis for risk communication to stakeholders, determination of risk acceptability, and evaluation of risk management strategies

  17. DESIGN OF STORM SEWERS

  18. DESIGN OF STORM SEWERS The first step in the design of STORM SEWERS is the estimation of flow which they will receive. There are different methods to estimate storm flow from URBAN AREAS. Primary source of storm flow is RAIN FALL and RATIONAL METHOD is minimally used for estimating the storm flows in urban areas and semi urban areas

  19. RATIONAL METHOD All techniques for estimating storm flow are based upon use of rainfall data – either directly or indirectly and rational method is not an exceptional to it. Rational method relates the flow to: (a) rainfall intensity (b) the tributary area and (c) a coefficient Q = CiA (Rational Formula)

  20. Where Q = amount of rainfall which appear as runoff , m3 / hr. i = intensity of rainfall , m / hr A = Area upon which the rainfall, m2 C= Runoff coefficient, i.e the fraction of incident rainfall which appear as surface flow. It depend upon the nature of area.

  21. Typical values of ‘C’ Typical values of ‘c’ as used by design engineers are given in table below:-

  22. TIME OF CONCENTRATION Definition: It is the time required for the max runoff to develop. When rainfall event occur upon an area served by a storm sewer the runoff will flow over roofs yards and pavements to the gutter and eventually to the sewer INLET. This travel require measurable time and the areas immediately adjacent to the inlet will contribute flow quickly, areas which are distant will not.

  23. The max rate of runoff for a given rainfall intensity will occur when the rainfall has continued for a period sufficient to permit flow to reach the inlet from the most remote point of the drainage area. Consider the rectangular water shed shown below:-

  24. C B A 5 min 5 min 5 min Inlet Sewer Inlet Time I1 Time of Flow in sewer I2 TIME OF CONCENTRATION

  25. So, only the rainfall events are of interest which are of sufficient duration to develop max runoff. Inlet Time Mathematically:- Time of conc = inlet time + time of flow in sewer. (For Lahore time of conc= 2 hrs) Where INLET TIME is the time required for rainwater to flow from the farthest point to the sewer inlet.   Usually Inlet time = 3 – 20 min For most urban areas 2 hrs is taken as critical duration to produce max runoff.

  26. RAINFALL INTENSITY In determining rainfall intensity for use in RATIONAL FORMULA it must be recognized that the shorter the duration the greater the expected avg. intensity will be and vice versa. The storm sewer designer thus require some relationship between DURATION AND INTENSITIES. The relation is of form I = A/(t + B) Where. I = intensity of rainfall, mm / hr t = duration of rainfall, minutes A,B = Constants, determined using rainfall data

  27. Constants ‘A’ & ‘B’ Usually 5 year storm frequency is used for residential areas. For Lahore Camp and Dresser found the values of A and B based on 5 years storm frequency. I = 7190 /(t + 103) USA is divided in 7 zones A = 810 to 9520 B = 10 to 38

  28. SUMMARY OF PROCEDURE FOR CALCULATING STORM FLOW • Select a suitable critical rainfall duration / time of concentration on (thoroughly consult rainfall records and project area). • Find out rainfall intensity using above duration form a relation of type. I = A/(t + B) • Use above intensity in rational formula to find flow.

  29. 4 3 2 1 Problem Find the maximum storm flow for the sewers shown in figure below:- Area Inlet time for each area = 8 minutes Time of flow between manholes = 5 minutes Rainfall intensity I = 2670/(T + 15) mm/hr

  30. Solution Using rational formula • Q = Ci A

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