Celtic Cultures in Transition (4)

1. Celtic Cultures in Transition (4) A Referendum in Scotland?

2. A Referendum in Scotland? • Norman Davies, historian from the University of Oxford, considers that the break-up of the United Kingdom is now inevitable. • Simon Brooks, University of Cardiff, Wales (writing in Barn): ‘it would be a disaster for Wales if Scotland obtained independence. Wales would become an unimportant part of a perverse state called EnglandWalesNorthernIreland. • And probably Northern Ireland would eventually become part of the Irish State.

3. A Referendum in Scotland • This view was also mirrored by the First Minister for Wales, Carwyn Jones. • Is this the only way ahead? • Certainly, however, the political mood in England has changed with the advent of devolution since the 1990s. • The dog that finally barked: England as an emerging political community (Richard Wyn Jones, Guy Lodge, Ailsa Henderson, Charlie Jeffery) 2012.

4. England in an age of devolution • The attitude in England towards devolution has been (perhaps predictably?) mainly negative when people are asked about whether the governance of the UK has improved or become worse with devolution. • Between 2000 and 2011 people in England became more negative about devolution and its effects. Especially where Scotland is concerned.

5. England in an age of devolution • There has for instance been an increase in those who belief that Scottish members of the UK Parliament should not vote on matters only concerning England: • 2000 (18%); 2011 (53%) (those who strongly believe this proposition).

6. England in an age of devolution • When asked whether Scotland should pay for public services from taxes collected in Scotland, the following figures emerged: • 2001 (20%); 2011 (44%) (strongly believed this). • Also, perhaps even more significantly, there are changes in the way English people (in England) define their identity:

7. England in an age of devolution • English and not British, 1997 (7%); 2011 (17%) • More English than British, 1997 (17%); 2011 (23%) • Equally English and British, 1997 (45%); 2011 (34%) • More British than English, 1997 (9%); 2011 (7%)

8. Independence or ‘devo max’? • Is this the only option however? • Does everything have to revolve around a referendum on independence or are other options possible that will reflect the new realities in Scotland, England and Wales? • In fact, the concept of ‘devo max’ has a strong following, and has also been discussed since for the last five years.

9. ‘devo max’ for Scotland? What is it? • ‘Devo max’. In a word (or two), this strange term refers to a situation where (eg) Scotland would have the maximum number of powers just short of independence (ie remain in the UK). Especially important would be the right to raise considerable taxes, fix taxation rates and to borrow on the international markets. • http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-15620565

10. ‘Devo Max’: the idea of it! • Commission on Scottish Devolution • This Commission chaired by Prof. Sir Kenneth Calman) began its work in 2008. Its purpose was to review the experience of Scottish devolution since 1998. • Its final report was published in 2009: • Serving Scotland Better: Scotland and the United Kingdom in the 21st Century • http://www.commissiononscottishdevolution.org.uk/uploads/2009-06-12-csd-a5_final-summary_ibook.pdf

11. Calman’s Report • The committee was set up to review the provisions of the Scotland Act (1998). • Significantly, they saw their function as advisors on a number of issues to do with the Scottish Parliament and to continue to secure the position of Scotland within the United Kingdom.

12. Calman’s Report • They emphasized the ‘social union’ between Scotland the rest of the UK. But much of their attention was focussed on financial issues. • The ‘economic union’ therefore becomes a major issue. • The committee made a number of recommendations in this area:

13. Calman’s Report • Part of the Budget of the Scottish Parliament should now be found from devolved taxation under its control rather than from grant from the UK Parliament. • They advocated a new Scottish rate of income tax. • Yet the structure of the income tax system …should remain entirely the responsibility of the UK Parliament.

14. Calman’s Report • They also recommended an extension in borrowing powers of the Scottish Parliament. • Intergovernmental reforms were also a major element in the recommendations of the committee. • For example: the UK Parliament and Scottish Parliament should have mechanisms to communicate with each other.

15. Calman’s Report • Recommendations were also made by the committee in relation to the Scottish Parliament’s position with regard to the EU. • Scottish ministers and the relevant Scottish Parliament committee should become more proactive in identifying EU issies of interest to Scotland…

16. Calman’s Report • Some recommendations were also made about the number of restricted powers that the Scottish Parliament has. • They are mainly lesser issues, eg the recommendation that the S Parliament should have the power to determine th elevel of the national speed limit in Scotland.

17. The follow-up • The direct result of the Calman Report was to encourage the Westminster Government to work on a new Scotland Act in place of the previous 1998 Act (that had brought about the Scottish Parliament).

18. The new Scotland Act 2010-2011 • The Bill will implement recommendations of the Final Report of the Commission on Scottish Devolution (the Calman Commission). 2009 • It would make changes to the finances of the Scottish Parliament, including a new Scottish rate of income tax, and make a number of adjustments to the boundary of devolved responsibilities.

19. The new Scotland Act 2010-2011 • This new bill has already been through the House of Commons (Westminster), and has had its first and second readings in the House of Lords. • On 26 January 2012, it will go to the committee stage.

20. The new (proposed) Scotland Act 2010-2011 • Read Steven Tierney’s analysis of the content of the new Scotland Bill: • http://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2011/11/23/stephen-tierney-the-scotland-bill-before-the-scottish-parliament/

21. The new Scotland Act 2010-2011 • At the same time in 2011, the bill came before the Scottish Parliament for consent (this is called Legislative Consent Motion). • The Scottish Parliament created a committee to comment on the bill which supported the general principles of the bill but asked to see any amendments made by the Westminster Parliaments (Commons, Lords), and to have the opportunity to debate them. This was all before the elections in Scotland in 2011.

22. The new Scotland Act 2010-2011- after the SNP victory. • After the election in Scotland in 2011, and greatly increased number of seats held by the now governing SNP, a new committee (to oversee the new Act) was convened with a very different membership. • They are now reconsidering the whole issue of giving the Bill an LCM. • In his speech to the Scottish Parliament 18 May 2011, Alex Salmond (First Minister) called for:

23. The new Scotland Act 2010-2011 • Called for ‘improvements’ to the Bill. • Alex Salmond’s speech to the Scottish Parliament: • http://www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Speeches/Speeches/First-Minister/electionfm2011

24. Alex Salmond’s speech 18 May 2011. • He specifically outlined six areas for further improvement: borrowing powers, corporation tax, the Crown Estate, excise duties, digital broadcasting and a stronger say in European policy. • On 13 June 2011, the UK Government announced proposals to amend the Scotland Bill, and it is with a complex mix of the published Bill, plus additional provisions proposed both from Whitehall and the Scottish Government that the Committee (in Scotland) is now concerned.

25. First Minister of Scotland Leader of the SNP From Linlithgow, West Lothian Alex Salmond, MSP

26. Alex Salmond • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NC8YGhnZWxg • http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=x3xIkZcCTYY

27. Salmond is one of the foremost proponents of Scottish Independence, repeatedly calling for a referendum on the issue. Salmond has campaigned on global warming and in government has committed Scotland to legislation on emission reduction and the generation of renewable energy.. Other recurring campaign themes include nuclear disarmement and Salmond's strong opposition to the2003 Invasion of Iraq. Background in economics. Alex Salmond

28. Referendum • ‘Choosing Scotland’s Future’. Draft Referendum (Scotland) Bill Consultation Paper. 2010 SNP • http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/303348/0095138.pdf • Since the electoral victory in 2011, the idea of holding a referendum has become governmental policy.

29. Referendum • The referendum will be advisory, in that it will have no legislative effect. However, the • Scottish Government would expect the UK and Scottish Parliaments and the respective • Governments to listen to the views of the Scottish people and act on them.

30. Referendum • Two potential approaches to the first question: one based on the concept of full devolution and another based on the limited recommendations for financial devolution made by the Commission on Scottish Devolution (the “Calman Commission”).

31. Independence proposals • the economy, including decisions on the currency and the macroeconomic framework; • • investment in education, enterprise and infrastructure, including transport and housing; • • the environment, energy and climate change; • • the taxation and benefits system;

32. Independence proposals • the full range of public services, including benefits and health; • • foreign affairs, defence and security matters. For example, Scotland would • continue membership of the European Union, representing its own national interests in the same way as other member states, influencing directly the overall • direction of European Union policy. An independent Scotland would also have full • representation on other European and international bodies; • • equality legislation and human rights; and • • the constitution and government of Scotland, including Parliament, the courts and • local government.

33. Independence proposals • Her Majesty The Queen would remain as Head of State. The current parliamentary • and political Union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland would become a monarchical • and social Union – united kingdoms rather than a United Kingdom – maintaining a • relationship forged in 1603 by the Union of the Crowns.

34. Independence proposals • Scotland would continue to operate within the Sterling system until any decision to join the Euro by the people of Scotland in a referendum

35. Independence proposals • Within this relationship, a broad range of cultural, social and policy links would continue and it is likely that both an independent Scotland and the remainder of the UK would seek to maintain and build on a series of cross-border partnerships and • services. • As members of the European Union, both Scotland and the rest of the UK would enjoy full access to the other’s markets and there would be freedom to travel and work in either country.

36. The question of questions… • The SNP propose two questions in a referendum.

37. Referendum: the two questions. First question: • The first proposal would ask voters whether they agree that the powers and responsibilities • of the Scottish Parliament should be extended so that the Parliament becomes • responsible for a range of matters (either full responsibility for domestic matters as set out in the full devolution proposal or more responsibility for financial affairs as • recommended by the Calman Commission).

38. Referendum. Second question: • The second proposal asks voters whether they agree that the extension of the Scottish • Parliament’s powers set out in proposal 1 should be supplemented by a further powers to enable independence to be achieved. Devo-max or independence?

39. David ‘Cameron’ defending the Union.

40. Referendum • Westminster fears that "devo max" will be harder to defeat because it will split the unionist vote and win over those who otherwise would have said no to full independence

41. Referendum • On January 8 British PM David Cameron stated that his government would grant Holyrood [Scottish parliament] the legal authority to hold an independence referendum, on condition that it be restricted to a simple in/out question. Two days later, Scotland's first minister, Alex Salmond, announced plans to hold a referendum in Autumn 2014.

42. Referendum • A series of clashes between Holyrood and London over the wording of the referendum is now inevitable. Salmond has hinted that he might put more than one question to Scottish voters, full independence or “devo max” – devolution that would leave little more than defence and foreign policy in British government hands..

43. Referendum • David Cameron’s view (Prime Minister of the UK) • http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16465704