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Business Plan

Business Plan. Engineering design and production of bipedal walking robots in price bracket 3 00- 25 00 $. OWNERS Name Alexander Evdokimov Address Russia, Tomsk, City, ST ZIP Code Tomsk, Tomsk region, 634003 Telephone +79016101432

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Business Plan

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  1. Business Plan Engineering design and production of bipedal walking robots in price bracket 300-2500 $ OWNERS Name Alexander Evdokimov Address Russia, Tomsk, City, ST ZIP Code Tomsk, Tomsk region, 634003 Telephone +79016101432 E-Mail reinbb@mail.ru http: www.robotics.tom.ru

  2. I. Table of Contents ……….. 2 II. Problem ………………..….. 3 Educational robotic kits….…. 4 Hobby’s and toy’s robots ….. 5 III. Solution ………...………….. 6 IV. Why Now …….….………… 7 Equipment ………..……..….... 7 Algorithms and software ….... 8 Model ……………….….…...... 9 V. Market Size ………………..12 VI. Competition ……………….16 Bipedal walking robots …......16 Bipedal physical simulator ...18 VII.Product ….......………….… 19 VIII. BusinessModel ………. 21 IX. Team ………………………. 24 I Table of Contents

  3. II Problem Nowadays, the market is being filled with small and inexpensive biped robots, but the demands of full-scale devices by obtainable price are not covered.

  4. Educational robotic kits Last years there observed the forming and a dynamic development of inexpensive educational lightweight small-scale robots market. These devicesare mainly used for study, modeling and engineering of designing approaches for full-scale apparatus. Functionality of similar models is quite equal with full-scale robots. Number of degrees of freedom of some of them is estimated at tens and is not cardinally different from full-scale apparatuses. At the same time these similar apparatuses move awkwardly and often unsteadily. And the essential distinctions in size do not allow transferring of their algorithm to full-scale apparatus without improving. But the cost of full-scale apparatuses is two-three orders higher than small robots offered in the market. That prevents their access to educational organizations. Thus, there are small-scale robots on the market for engineering of full-scale apparatuses and there are no the later in obtainable price bracket.

  5. Hobby’s and toy’s walking robots Steady decreasing in price of microprocessors, servo drives, sensors and the improving of their specifications has extended the scientific-educational market of walking robots up to arcade machines market. At present this market offers tens of models and keeps developing very dynamically. However, there are no full-scale models in the market as before, because of absence of production technology in obtainable price bracket. It should be noted that the market has a great potential capacity and its vector is directed towards extension of functionality, enlargement of sizes and decrease in value. Thereby, the requirement of full-scale walking robots in obtainable price bracket is not less than in education and the market development potential is much more impressive.

  6. III Solution The solution includes engineering design and production of full-scale inexpensive robots The absence of straight-walking full-scale and inexpensive robots on the market can be explained by limitations of technologies, which are used at present. These technologies include implementation of so called static balance in which the balance is kept when driving gears stop at every moment of time. It requires precise positioning of moving elements of the apparatus and it leads to necessity of usage of powerful driving gears and high-precision mechanics. All that set a high value and prevent from marketing of such apparatuses. It is offered here to use the balance based on dynamics. It sharply brings power and precision specifications down and allows production of full-scale biped walking robots in the price line demanded on the market and close to small-scale apparatuses – 2500-6000 $.

  7. IV Why Now There appeared the elements on the market, which are required fordynamic balance implementation in obtainable prices. Equipment Serially produced servo drives possess the required power, correlation of powerfulness and weight, satisfactory time of answerback the control signals and acceptable cost. (HSR-5980SG, HS-7980TH). Microprocessors, offered on the market, possess sufficient productivity and functionality, acceptable level of energy consumption and acceptable cost. (Atmel ATMega 1284PV or ARM line). Also there offered a range of necessary sensors on the market, which have specifications sufficientfor dynamic balance implementation. (CRS-09).

  8. Algorithms and Software Algorithms design of dynamic balance of full-scale and inexpensive robots is the key-problem of this project. At present there worked out and published enough information for making of mathematical models and complementary control algorithms. (CLAWAR, Mechanics…). This project began with a model design.

  9. Model At the initial stage of designing the model was made in order to assess the possibility of making such apparatuses with required specifications. Algorithms of dynamic balance maintenance were developed specially for this model. Testing shows that the model is able to walk straight at a speed of 1.2 kilometers per hour. Cost of basic components is 590 $: Microprocessors Servos AT86RF230 3 HiTec HS-805BB 7 AT90USB1287 1 ATMega 3290PV 2 Hyroscopes ATMega 1284PV 2 gyros Fatuba Gy401 ATMega 1280 1 AVR RZRaven used to provide remoter radio control and remoter reprogramming by air.

  10. The analysis of model designing and testing results allows making the following resume: • Center-of-mass overpatching in some elements and using lighter and more powerful driving gears allow steadiness increasing and speeding up of the apparatus. (HS-7980TH or HSR-5980SG can be used with weight – 62g and torque – 30 kg/cm instead of used HiTec HS-805BB with weight – 152g and torque – 24.7 kg/cm. ) • Usage of biaxial mechanical sensors of angles on the foot increases the steadiness of apparatus and extends its functionality up to the possibility of foot elimination. It makes possible to produce less expensive apparatuses which have no analogs on the market. • It takes a lot of time to design a mathematical model, appropriate algorithms and their adaptation to the real apparatus. The time can be shorten by means of designing and using of special bipedal walking dynamic simulator.

  11. Further designing of movements algorithms, based on passive dynamic walking theory makes it possible to reduce considerably the electric power consumption and apparatus weight due to reducing of accumulators mass. That reduces the total cost. • Usage of multifunctional turn-mill equipment in engineering of experimental models allows speeding up the process of apparatus production and modification. • Thus, at present, there is the required equipment and the team for model designing, which is enough qualified for designing and developing of required algorithms of dynamic balance in the market.

  12. V Market Size Recent years have seen the development of a significant personal robot market beyond just toys, although even in entertainment robots (toys), there has been substantial improvement over the wind-up robots of the past. A wider range of task robots is on the market and in development, and entertainment robots have expanded in capability and fallen in price as well. The world traditional toy market (not including video game, hardware and software) is $75.1 billion in 2008. In the activity/construction toy market, the robotic toy is undoubtedly the emerging segment that attracts more attention. At present, Robots used in education and entertainment such as Robotis Bioloid can provide modular motion and remote sensor system. And the educational kits are designed for pure fun and for educational competitions that allow students put together modules in innovative ways to create their designs. People are able to organize their robots in a creative manner such as singing, dancing and fighting. Educational robots are believed to stimulate innovation of children. Furthermore, creativity is set to be stimulated by the modular systems that are available to students in the robotic community.

  13. Educational robots can be used by every level of student. Different kits are geared to various age and skill levels. And robotics competitions are being held for every age level. Students do not yet receive formal education on robots and are more likely to enter competitions as clubs competing against each other representing different educational institutions. According to the report (Educational and Entertainment Robot Market Strategy, Market Shares, and Market Forecasts, 2008-2014, Wintergreen Research , March 1, 2008, Pub ID: WGR1724666 ), markets for educational robotic kits at 541,000 units in 2007 are anticipated to reach 35.8 million units by 2014. As the price comes down due to the lower cost of chip and schools begin to institutionalize robotics programs, there is very fast growth anticipated. Growth at the low end robotic kits starts to level off as demand increases for robots with more components and more functionality. Markets for educational robotic kits at $27.5 million in 2007 are anticipated to reach $1.69 billion by 2014. Robot entertainment and educational markets at $184.9 million in 2007 are anticipated to reach $2.985 billion by 2014. The only entertainment market is estimated to be $1.85 billion in 2014 according to a new market research report (by http://snipsly.com/2010/05/18/marketsandmarkets-global-service-robotics-market-worth-u-s-21-billion-by-2014).

  14. Market growth is spurred by the evolution of a new technology useful in a range of industry segments. The educational and entertainment robots represent a first step in the evolution of the robotic markets because they provide the teaching aspect of the market that precedes any other market evolution in the services and mobility segments of consumer robotics. According to the report from RobotShop (http://www.robotshop.ca/robot-kits-development-platforms-reference.html), the world’s leading source for domestic and professional robot technology, there are three kinds of educational and entertainment robotic toy kits on the current market: beginner, intermediate, and advanced kits. Beginner are especially made for those who are still new to robotics; intermediate robot kits are principally made for the robot hobbyist who has intermediate knowledge in robotics; advanced robots kits are employ more complicated designs and structures and require more knowledge of robotics like humanoid robotic toys.

  15. Projections about the overall market opportunity for personal robots range dramatically. According to a 2009 report by ABI Research (http://www.abiresearch.com ), by the year 2015 personal robot sales in the U.S. will exceed $5B. ABI’s report singles out North America as the largest market for personal robots right now, followed by Japan where the culture embraces robots. Western Europe will grow to become a significant market, but Europeans are interested less in the cachet of owning a robot, and more in how well the robot performs its task.

  16. VI Competition Bipedal walking robots There are no analogs of the offered for designing and production apparatus. But the producers of small straight walking robots as well as developers of full-scale apparatuses can be considered as potential competitors.

  17. Table: Bipedal humanoid robots

  18. Bipedal physical simulator During engineering it is planned to design a specialized bipedal walking dynamic simulator based on ODE (Open Dynamic Engine). This simulator is the key-element of algorithm adjustment. And in future it can be taken as an independent product offered for sale. There are no specialized biped robots simulators on the market but there are general physical simulators. In such a case the company Cyberbotics Ltd with the product Webots made on ODE basis can be considered as the principal competitor. So as the companies Nvidia with the PhysX product and Microsoft with Robotics Developer Studio. The last two products serve more for games designing and they are far from straight walking simulation. There is no information about plans of bipedal locomotion simulator designing in Cyberbotics Ltd company. In the near future this project is not inclined putting of bipedal simulator as a commercial product on the market. And there are no such products on the market at all. However, production of such simulator with pre-established algorithms of straight walking by any other company can be considered as a certain threat for the project.

  19. VII Product • The final products of the project are the following components: • Mathematical model of biped walking locomotion based on dynamic balance maintenance. • Specialized bipedal walking dynamic simulator based on ODE (Open Dynamic Engine). • Technical documentation of the device required for production. • Software product for device control assigned for the end user. • Site and customer support service.

  20. The project is planning the organization of final product short-run production. Final product technical documentation mainly depends on the results of device control algorithms design made on the basis of bipedal simulator during the first 6 months after the project starts. Preliminary results received at initial stage allow drawing a conclusion about possibility of usage only 4 servo drives which maintain steady walking of full-scale device. In case of the results confirmation final device arranging will be much more simplified and it makes possible to produce full-scale robots in lower price bracket. Otherwise the worked out classical design of developed model will be used.

  21. VIII Business Model In order to put the project into practice it is suggested establishing a separate Russian company as “Ltd. Company”, where the investor is a cofounder and forms the authorized capital stock of 750 000$. The owners of the project invest a nominal amount of 400$. So it is fixed in company regulation that investor’s share in profit is of 25%, and owners of the project – 75%. Company scope of activity corresponds with the requirements of free economic zone currently in force in Tomsk region territory. That is why it is planned to join the zone for tax saving, reduction of duties, lowering of place leasing charge and free access to high-tech equipment. It is a great advantage if a manufacturing area and a suitable infrastructure are available. (At this stage all the target numbers in appendix are given in a pessimistic variant without specific character of entering free economic zone.) Completion of all required documentation for production and completion of all preliminaries are planned during the first 24 months. Including: specimen product, required components suppliers, assembly techniques and certain customers.

  22. During the next 12 months it is planned to produce and sale no less than 14000 specimen products with profitability 30%. So the investor’s net profit with a glance of his share of 25% will be 1500 000 $. After 36 months since the beginning of company establishment the investor will have the right to walk out the company getting back the investments of 750 000$. Also it is assumed in the project the possibility of additional financing attraction to authorized capital stock for account of reduction of the project owner’s participation (share) in the profits. (when minimizing his share of 75%). As it was mentioned before there is a possibility to receive positive results of device production with less number of servo drives keeping the required functionality. In this case there is a possibility to start preparation for manufacturing much earlier, in 12-16 months instead of 24. We can evaluate this probability of 0.5 (50%).

  23. You can see finance indicators for the first 24 months in the appendix. In case of investor’s interest there will be given financial information for the next last 12 months in details. The owners of the project are ready for discussion and if it is necessary for changing of some regulations of business model in case if the changes are due to the standard conditions of venture financing in the USA. The project assumes maximal transparency of financial and other fields of the company for all owners during its developing. For that purpose it is provided the obligatory monthly financial account close to international standard format.

  24. IX Team Project development was started by the group of programmers enthusiasts of 3 persons. All the participants have 4 -9 years experience of working in Silicon Valley departments (russian branches) in positions from senior software engineer up to principal software engineer and head office. All of them are highly-qualified. All the participants worked in start up companies and they are able to realize the high working loads at the initial stage. Résumés of the staff are in the appendix. Besides, a radio electronics engineer who has a high level of knowledge and experience in this field took part in the project development. During pre-project period consultations and discussions of dynamic balance problems and their solutions are constantly taking place with friends and colleagues - Tomsk universities teachers. It should be noted that there are 6 Universities in Tomsk and every 5th citizen is a student. So there is no an acute problem with searching of qualified personnel. Thus, there is a designing and managing team for the initial period. Other specialists can be hired as the need arises according to the stage of the project development.

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