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Using CEM Data in Practice: F eedback from CEM Secondary Assessments

Peter Hendry: CEM Consultant. Using CEM Data in Practice: F eedback from CEM Secondary Assessments. Glasgow Conference 13 th Feb 2013. Peter.Hendry@cem.dur.ac.uk Secondary@cem.dur.ac.uk. Assessment for Excellence: 2 systems. S1/S2 Baseline Assessment (MidYIS):

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Using CEM Data in Practice: F eedback from CEM Secondary Assessments

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  1. Peter Hendry: CEM Consultant Using CEM Data in Practice:Feedback from CEM Secondary Assessments Glasgow Conference 13th Feb 2013 Peter.Hendry@cem.dur.ac.uk Secondary@cem.dur.ac.uk

  2. Assessment for Excellence: 2 systems • S1/S2 Baseline Assessment (MidYIS): • A Test of Developed Ability at start of S1 or S2 • 4 sections: Vocabulary, Maths, Non-Verbal and Skills (Proof Reading, and Perceptual speed and accuracy • Computer adaptive* or paper-based • Any time Term 1 + catch ups • Value Added measures to SOSCA and to Scottish Qualifications • S2 Curriculum-based Assessments (SOSCA): • A curriculum assessment of knowledge, skills and understandingat end of S2 • Assesses what has been taught in the classroom • Covers, Maths, Science, Reading (English) • Computer adaptive* • Four week assessment windowmid April to mid May + catch ups • Value Added measures from PIPs, InCAS and MidYIS and to Scottish Qualifications

  3. AfE: key elements • School and students’ test performances are compared to a nationally representative sample • Assessment data from the tests provides school and pupil datato inform teaching and learning • ‘Predictive’ data indicates futurepotential performanceto SQ, and will to National 4 and 5, to inform target setting and subsequent monitoring • ‘Value-added data’ provides measures of relative performanceat SQ (and will for National 4 and 5) and SOSCA from earlier baselines to inform self-evaluation

  4. AfE Feedback: MidYIS and SOSCA Assessment Feedback: • Standardised score system: 50-150, mean 100, SD 15 • School data including component averages and band profiles (historical and current) • Pupil data in the form of spreadsheets and Individual Pupil Records (IPRs)

  5. AfE Feedback: MidYIS and SOSCA ‘Predictions’ Feedback: • Currently to S2 SOSCA from S1/S2 baseline (MidYIS) and to SQ from MidYIS and SOSCA ‘Value-Added’ Feedback: • To SQ from curriculum baseline (SOSCA), and from S1/S2 baseline (MidYIS) • To S2 curriculum assessment (SOSCA) from P7 baseline (PIPS or InCAS) and/or S1/S2 baseline (MidYIS)

  6. www.cemcentre.org

  7. Detailed Information about the assessment. Well worth a look. Data for your school.

  8. Bands, percentiles, standardised scores… 30 5 20 90 1 40 10 80 70 99 60 95 50 25% 25% C B 25% 25% A D Standardised scores Percentiles: 98 Mean 100, Standard Deviation of 15

  9. SCHOOL A: S1 baseline data

  10. SCHOOL A: S1 baseline data Intake profiles: overall and test component bands A school with a ‘completely average’ intake would have 25% of pupils within each band.

  11. SCHOOL A: S1 Baseline

  12. SCHOOL A

  13. SCHOOL A: S2 curriculum (SOSCA) data

  14. School no.1 School no.2

  15. STANINES

  16. S1 baseline IPR

  17. S2 curriculum (SOSCA) IPR

  18. S2 curriculum (SOSCA) IPR

  19. Predictions Feedback • Currently available to Standard Grade from AfE baselines • In the future to National 4 & 5 Qualifications from AfE baselines • Also to AfE S2 curriculum (SOSCA) from S1 and/or S2 baseline (MidYIS) • Includes Chances Graphs

  20. How is a ‘prediction’ generated? 50% on or above the trend line 1 Trend line (regression line) *********************** 2 ******************************* 3 ******************************************* ‘PREDICTION’ (expected grade) 4 ************************************* GRADE GRADE ************************************** ******************************** ***************************** 50% on or below the trend line ***************** BASELINE SCORE

  21. Data for 2012 examinations Grade

  22. Predictions: Chances Graphs 50% chance of a grade 2 – the most likely single grade. 50% chance of a different grade Point Prediction =1.8 Grade Prediction = 2 Chances Graphs based on Pupil’s SOSCA Test Score

  23. Not a label for life...just another piece of information • The Chances graphs show that, from almost any baseline score, students come up with almost any grade - - -there are just different probabilities for each grade depending on the baseline score. • In working with students these graphs are more useful than a single predicted or target grade • Chances graphs show what can be achieved: • By students of similar ability • By students with lower baseline scores

  24. Latest information as at 13 Feb 2102 • Replacing SG with Nat 4 & 5 predictions: CEM statisticians have put together a proposal. • This has been looked at by colleagues in Scottish Authorities. • The CEM Technical team have now published the new predictive data. • This data is now available on the CEM secondary+ website alongside the existing SG predictive data

  25. New slide!!

  26. . Measuring Value-Added – Terminology Exam grade -ve VA +ve VA 0 2 4 6 8 BASELINE SCORE Raw Residual Trend Line/Regression Line

  27. SCHOOL A: S2 curriculum (SOSCA) data

  28. SCHOOL C: AfE data

  29. Standardised Residual Bar Chart SCHOOL C: AfE data 99.7% confidence limit 95% confidence limit ANY VALUE IN THE INNER SHADED AREA SHOWS THE EXPECTED RESULTS i.e. AVERAGE VALUE ADDED

  30. SCHOOL C: SQ data

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