The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001 Paul Norman

1. The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001 Paul Norman School of Geography, University of Leeds Understanding Population Trends and Processes ESRC RES-163-25-0012 for 2005-07 @ 40%

2. Main aim • Quantify and map changes in population size and social characteristics which occurred in UK’s small geographical areas between the 1991 and 2001 Censuses • Small area geography of reporting: wards & equivalents • Population change • Which demographic components account for change? Balance between natural change & migration change • Area characteristics change • Are areas becoming more or less deprived over time? Which area attributes change & why?

3. The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001 • Population change • Data preparation & number crunching: mostly completed • Analysis: yet to be carried out • Area characteristics change • Data preparation & number crunching: partly completed • LGA presentation • Background • Data problems & solutions • Preliminary results

4. Use of area characteristics measures • Cross-sectional research • Allocation of funding • Business marketing • Deprivation relationship with health • Time-series: deprivation measures • Are areas becoming more or less deprived over time? • Has regeneration policy been effective? • Have patterns of unemployment changed? • Has public housing gone into private ownership? • Has health improved in areas now less deprived?

5. Background: Classification of areas • Use of multiple input variables to produce a summary measure of an area’s characteristics • Charles Booth, late 19th Century • Human Ecologists, Chicago 1920s • Social Area Analysis • Factor Analysis / Principal Components Analysis • Deprivation Indexes • Geodemographics

6. Classification of areas • Problems when comparing areas at 2 (or more) time points • Input data • Availability, definition and categorisation • Geography • Boundary change • Method of classification • Applicability over time • Need to compare like with like & need consistency of information, geography & method • Otherwise comparisons invalid

7. Input data: availability, definition & categorisation • Area classification using Census data 1991 & 2001 • Topics & questions change • Where available across time, tabulation categories vary • More variables implies less consistency • Large number of input variables too cumbersome • Aim … • Emulate deprivation indexes (e.g. 4 inputs) more realistic as a goal than geodemographics (e.g. 41 variables in ONS 2001 OA classification by Dan Vickers)

8. Input data • Indexes widely used since 1980s • Townsend indexCarstairs index • • Unemployment • Male unemployment • • Household overcrowding • Household overcrowding • • No access to car • No access to car • • Non-home ownership • Low social class • Townsend variables stable & comparable over time • Carstairs • Male unemployment too narrow • Low social class misses/misclassifies people

9. Geography: small area boundary change Ward boundaries change to maintain sub-district equality in elector to councillor ratios Census data: smallest areas Enumeration Districts in 1991 a different geography to 2001 Output Areas Data collected & released for 1991 small areas cannot directly be compared with 2001 data

10. Geography: Ward boundary change Yellow wards in 2001 = no boundary change

11. Geography: Adjusting data between boundary systems Methods by ESRC funded research (Simpson 2002; Norman et al. 2003) Postcodes associated with 1991 EDs Postcodes associated with 2001 OAs Apportion data using weighted postcode distribution

12. Method of area classification • Geodemographic cluster algorithms may be usable at two or more time-points to classify areas (more work needed) • Are deprivation index methods usable across time? • Input variables reveal each area’s situation relative to national level • In 1991, is unemployment for area 1 more or less than England & Wales as a whole? • Decide on national comparison level • 1991, 2001 or an average

13. Deprivation 1991 & 2001 • Townsend index • • Unemployment • • Household overcrowding • • No access to car • • Non-home ownership • Data for 1991 EDs converted to 2001 OAs to capture sub-ward distributions, then aggregate to wards • Calculate 1991 and 2001 indexes • Comparison relative to 2001 levels

14. Less deprived 2001 average More deprived Deprivation 1991 & 2001

15. Deprivation 1991 & 2001

16. Why has deprivation changed 1991-2001? • Change at national level • Unemployment 9% to 5% • • Household overcrowding 2% to 1.5% • • No access to car 27% to 22% • • Non-home ownership 30% to 28% • Local variations: yet to investigate • Employment sector changes • Tenure changes • Regeneration schemes • Database?

17. Effect of changing deprivation Limiting long-term illness 1991 & 2001 1991 Is increasing deprivation over time associated with worse health? 2001

18. The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001 • Ongoing work … • Population change • Which demographic components account for change? Balance between natural change & migration change • Area characteristics change • Are areas becoming more or less deprived over time? Which area attributes change & why? • Analysis for both to be done • Area characteristics data preparation for Scotland and Northern Ireland