Election Campaigns

1. ElectionCampaigns 16 October 2013

2. What should a campaign do? • Inform voters about positions of parties • Inform voters about state of society • Encourage voters to participate, vote • Persuade voters – change their opinions

3. Defining a campaign • Intense period of communication with public prior to election • Are politicians always campaigning? • Permanent campaign • Breakdown of old connections – party membership, patronage • Need public support to govern – try to win daily news cycle

4. Do campaigns matter? Minimal effects • Consensus on minimal effects • Early studies: panel studies of communities • Few change their support during campaign • Campaign activates latent preferences, identity • Campaigns cancel each other • Rarely have sustained advantage in advertising • Effects of campaigns short-lived – advertising lasts for 1-2 days • Expect most intensity at end • Most effects small – hard to measure • Economic fundamentals as key predictor of results • Campaigns may help voters see economy

5. Case for campaign effects • Information – create information, familiarity about unknown parties, candidates • Mobilization – get voters to turn out • Priming – make certain issues more salient to voters • Persuasion– change people’s opinions on issues/parties • Strategic – show electoral viability & coalition partners

6. Informingundecidedvoters • http://vimeo.com/50923260

7. What parts of campaign can matter? • Debates • Gaffes • Speeches • Advertisements

8. Improving debates: Game show approach • Allow all candidates to watch a short debate of experts — with a fraud or two thrown in — and ask them to evaluate what they just heard and why they reached the conclusion they did. • Test candidates for the ability to spot liars. • Give each candidate a substantive message and then give each two minutes to turn it into pure fluff.  This tests communications skills, plus we can see politics in action. • Presidential candidates have 12 hours to get a bitterly divorcing couple to divide their assets in a mutually agreeable manner.

9. Chilean film “No” • 1988 plebiscite on rule of Pinochet • Yes = another 8 year term, No = free elections • Worries that voters for opposition will be punished, Pinochet won’t honor vote, conflicts within opposition • Each side gets 15 minutes/night • Regime emphasizes successes and dangers of opposition • Opposition wants campaign emphasizing brutality of regime • Skateboarding advertising genius creates happy campaign • La alegría ya viene ("Joy is coming")

10. Film trailer • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOeiw_BJPas

11. What film leaves out • Long struggle to unite opposition and not threaten regime • Cf., democratization literature by Przeworski, O’Donnell • Focus-group testing of messages with international help • Creator of advertising not an outsider • Grassroots work to register 92% of voters key • Unions, students, human rights organizations • Pinochet plans to repress opposition after results, but persuaded by Reagan, generals not to do so (Controversy over director – father is important Pinochet supporter, mother conservative cabinet member)

12. Czech campaign history • 1990 – Civic Forum debates over commercialization • Vladimir Zelezny – “S nami do Evropy” • 1992 – ODS hire American advisors, only 23 days for campaign • 1996 – Zemak (borrowed from Kwak in Poland) • 1998 – Mobilisace, megaconcert • 2002 – Debate between Klaus and Spidla • 2006 – Media & mudslinging • 2010 – Worries about becoming Greece • 2013 – ?

13. Elements of media campaign • Biographical – introducing parties and candidates • Military service, poor beginnings, family, overcome obstacles • Develop familiarity with name • Image advertisements • Issue advertisements • Performance versus policy • Issue ownership: parties have advantage on certain issues • Right on military, inflation; left on healthcare, pensions • Wedge appeals: us versus them • Race, ethnicity, traditional family

14. Clarifying versus insurgent campaign • Economy is key in elections • Clarifying candidate is one who can emphasize economy • Incumbent if economy good – claims credits • Opposition if economy bad – blames government • Insurgent candidate doesn’t benefit from economy, so tries to shift to other issues • Does it fit Czech Republic? • Is economy in good shape? • Who is incumbent? • What are insurgent issues?

15. 2013 campaigns • CSSD – Prosadimedobrefungujici stat • TOP 09 – Vime, kamjdeme/V sluzbachnaserepubliky • ODS – Volimpravici • ANO – Ano, bude lip • KDU-CSL – Dame veci do poradku • KSCM – S lidmi pro lidi • Usvit prime demokracie – Konecbordelu a korupce • SPOZ – Potrebazmeny • Hlavavzhuru – Popereme se za vas

16. Another view • Prosadímedobřefungující stát. (ČSSD)Kraus: Když ne, tak zase příště! • Političtí panici? Ne, já volím pravici! (ODS)Kraus: Staré ku*vě neradno věřit. • Víme, kamjdeme. (TOP 09)Kraus: A až tam dojdeme, to budete koukat! • Ano, bude líp. (ANO)Kraus: Ne. Vy už tu v té době asi nebudete. • Zastavili jsme Kalouska. (SPOZ) Kraus: Zastavíme každého. I Vás. Váš gang ze zastavárny. • Dáme zemi do pořádku. (KDU-ČSL)Kraus: Všichni tři naši poslanci pro to udělají maximum.

17. What sort of campaign does/should each party have?

18. Negative campaigning • Positive appeal – run on own policy ideas, accomplishments • Negative appeal – concentrate on weaknesses of opponents policy proposals, prior policy failures, or personal problems • But what about comparison, contrast • Use of emotions - fear • Is negative campaigning increasing? • Not easy to measure • Widespread perception that getting worse • More entertaining to write about negative advertisements, especially ad hominem one • But evidence on both sides

19. Daisy advertisement • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDTBnsqxZ3k

20. Which negative attacks are legitimate?

21. Which negative attacks are legitimate?

22. Who, what, when, why? • Why might it work? • Negativity bias: 90% employment versus 10% unemployment • Figure-ground: negative stands out against positive background • Should you respond to negative attack? • Need to refute charges • Give charges legitimacy by addressing • Who uses negative campaigning • Challengers? • Personality and ideology of candidate? • Competitiveness of race

23. Does it work? • Consultants believe that it works • But danger of backlash against attacker • Studies show both results • Selection problem: candidates more likely to lose turn to negative • Do they lose because of strategy or was strategy their best option?

24. Demobilization hypothesis • Negative campaigning reduces turnout • Reduce support for candidate being attacked • Reduce trust in government which is correlated with turnout • But could increase turnout • Negative campaign conveys large amount of policy and performance information => knowledgable citizens more likely to participate • Helps voters to distinguish candidates • Create emotional responses • Evidence: 25 studies find demobilization, 29 mobilization

25. Campaigning on the internet • Ground war, air war, now cyber war • What can website do? • Inform, persuade, but not mobilize • But also costs • Web 2.0 (interactive features) means that lose control of message • American congressional websites – little use of interactive features • Personalization: average 0.4 (max 7) • External links: average of 5 • Interpersonal communication: 0.4 (max 4), 0.5 (max 8) for blogs • New information: 86% update • Multimedia: average of 1.8 elements

26. How to study campaigns? • Public opinion surveys • Hard to capture small changes • Need many surveys and measures of media consumption • Lab experiments • Field experiments – current state of the art • Randomized contacts and treatment – compare treated and control • Stimulus on one side of street, not on other • Can cooperate with parties, NGOs

27. What works? • Personal contact best – knock on doors and encourage to vote • To increase turnout by 200, you can • Make 400 000 robocalls • Send 27 000 mailers • Make 2 800 personal contacts • Each canvasser can make 5-8 contacts/hour • Shaming may work – your neighbor voted or you didn’t vote last time

28. Thesis ideas • Systematic study of party websites • Not just interactiveness, also issues, negativity, etc. • I have a large codebook from James Druckman • Laboratory and field experiments • You can cooperate with an organization you like • Show advertisements to other students