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Review of April 2007 Version of the Phase 5 Model

Review of April 2007 Version of the Phase 5 Model. Modeling Subcommittee Quarterly Review April 3, 2007. Where We Are in the Phase 5 Review. Key Review Milestones: January 31, 2007 - Major upgrade April 4, 2007 - Major upgrade July 31, 2007 - Final major upgrade

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Review of April 2007 Version of the Phase 5 Model

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  1. Review of April 2007 Version of the Phase 5 Model Modeling Subcommittee Quarterly Review April 3, 2007

  2. Where We Are in the Phase 5 Review • Key Review Milestones: • January 31, 2007 - Major upgrade • April 4, 2007 - Major upgrade • July 31, 2007 - Final major upgrade • August-December 2007 - Minor, site-specific upgrades in response to model review anticipated over this period. • January 2008 - Phase 5 approved for application in CBP management scenarios.

  3. Where to Find Calibration Data The current calibration data for Phase 5 can be found at the following site and data on this site will be updated at each key milestone: ftp://ftp.chesapeakebay.net/modeling/phase5/calibration_pdfs/2007_07_04_03/ In each of the pdf files, the order of the observed and simulated comparisons are usually total nitrogen, nitrate, ammonia, total phosphorus, dissolved phosphate, total suspended solids, chlorophyll a, total organic carbon, dissolved oxygen, and flow. If a parameter is missing from the pdfs, that’s usually due to that parameter being absent from the collected observed data. All the graphics and statistics should be weighed when reviewing the calibration. Graphs should be examined to see if the maximum and minimum values are generally reached by the simulation, that the central tendency of the observed data is simulated, and that the simulation captures major elements of the observed time series. All of the statistics should also be weighed in the calibration review with particular attention to the observed and simulated cumulative frequency curve.

  4. The FTP site contains the following sections: • Susquehanna.pdf - Susquehanna calibration stations. • Patuxent.pdf - Patuxent calibration stations. • Potomac.pdf - Potomac River calibration stations. • Rappahannock.pdf - Rappahannock calibration stations. • Mattaponi.pdf - Mattaponi River calibration stations. • Pamunkey.pdf - Pamunkey calibration stations. • James.pdf - James calibration stations. • Appomattox.pdf - Appomattox calibration stations above the fall line. • Westernshore.pdf - Western Shore below fall line calibration stations. • Choptank.pdf - Choptank river calibration station.

  5. The FTP site contains the following sections: • p5 vs p4.pdf - A comparison of phase 5 and Phase 4 at all the Phase 4 calibration stations. A goal of Phase 5 is to have a calibration as good or better than phase 4 at all stations. • p5 vs estimator.pdf - a comparison of the Phase 5 calibration to Estimator, a statistical model based on a regression of multiple variables which is often applied in the Chesapeake watershed. • p5 vs p4 totals.pdf - this file looks at total nitrogen, total phosphorus, total suspended solids, dissolved oxygen and temperature for all of the phase 4 calibration stations. • Calibration stations are identified always identified with their model reaches and usually with their USGS names. The final calibration documentation will consistently use USGS station names to identify the calibration stations.

  6. Phase 5 Documentation Schedule CHESAPEAKE BAY PHASE 5 COMMUNITY WATERSHED MODEL Section 1: WATERSHED MODEL OVERVIEW - Draft Completed Section 2: METEOROLOGY AND PRECIPITATION - Draft Completed Section 3: LAND AND RIVER SEGMENTATION - Draft Completed Section 4: LAND USE - Draft Completed Section 5: NONPOINT SOURCE NUTRIENT INPUTS - February 28, 2007 Section 6: BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES (BMP) - May 15, 2007 Section 7: POINT SOURCES AND ON-SITE WASTE DISPOSAL SYSTEMS - Draft Completed Section 8: HYDROLOGY SIMULATION - March 15, 2006 Section 9: SEDIMENT SIMULATION - March 1, 2007 Section 10: NONPOINT SOURCE SIMULATION - April 1, 2007 Section 11: NONPOINT SOURCE SIMULATION - April 15, 2007 Section 12: KEY SCENARIOS AND FINDINGS - May 1, 2007 Section 13: COMMUNITY MODEL AND VORTEX - June1, 2007 Sections 1,2,3,4, and 7 have first drafts completed & are on the web for review & comments.

  7. The Vortex: Exploration Phase 5 Input and Output Data The Vortex is a web-based interface to the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model Phase 5.0, that enables the creation of model input decks, exploration of alternative management scenarios, and model input/output visualization and analysis. This tool features a Web-GIS interface that allows the user to edit data, submit model runs, and perform analysis at nearly any scale from the smallest land/river segment to the entire model. This tool runs in a standard web-browser and will be accessible to partners via a password protected login

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