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Hanel, Germany

What do you think these cartoons are saying?. Hanel, Germany. J. Gathorpe-Hardy. Demographic Transition Model. Demographic Transition Model. Stage 1. Stage 2. Stage 3. Stage 4. Total Population. Natural Increase In Population. Natural Decrease In Population. Birth Rate.

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Hanel, Germany

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  1. What do you think these cartoons are saying? Hanel, Germany J. Gathorpe-Hardy

  2. Demographic Transition Model

  3. Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Total Population Natural Increase In Population Natural Decrease In Population Birth Rate Birth Rate Death Rate

  4. Stage 1High Fluctuating/Pre-Industrial • Low population • Increasing very slowly • High birth rate • High death rate • Ethiopia/Niger • UK: pre-1780 Stage 1 Birth Rate Death Rate Total Population

  5. Reasons for Stage 1High Fluctuating • Little access to birth control • Many children die in infancy • Children are needed to work on the land • Some religions encourage large families • Death rates are high due to disease, famine, poor diet, poor hygiene, little medical science Stage 1 Birth Rate Death Rate Total Population

  6. Stage 2Early Expanding Stage 2 • Population growing at faster rate • High but decreasing birth rate • Decreasing death rate • Sri Lanka/Bolivia • UK: 1780-1880 Birth Rate Death Rate Total Population

  7. Reasons for Stage 2Early Expanding Stage 2 • Improvements in medical care • Improvements in sanitation and water supply • Quality and quantity of food produced improves • Transport and communications improve movements of food and medical supplies • Decrease in infant mortality Birth Rate Death Rate Total Population

  8. Stage 3Late Expanding Stage 3 • Population, still increasing, but rate of increase slowing down • Decreasing birth rate • Low death rate • Uruguay/China • UK: 1880-1940 Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate

  9. Reasons for Stage 3Late Expanding • Increased access to contraception • Lower infant mortality rates so less need for bigger families • Industrialisation and mechanisation means fewer labourers required • As wealth increases, desire for material possessions takes over the desire for large families • Equality of women means they can follow a career rather than just staying at home Stage 3 Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate

  10. Stage 4Low Fluctuating Stage 4 • High population, almost stable • Low birth rate • Low death rate • Canada/USA • UK: post-1940 Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate

  11. Reasons for Stage 4Low Fluctuating Stage 4 • Rates fluctuate with ‘baby booms’ and epidemics of illnesses and diseases • Reasons for Stage 4 have improved and it stabilises Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate

  12. Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Total Population Natural Increase In Population Natural Decrease In Population Birth Rate Death Rate Ethiopia/ Niger UK: pre-1780 Sri Lanka/ Bolivia UK: 1780-1880 Uruguay/ China UK: 1880-1940 Canada/ USA UK: Post-1940

  13. Is there a Stage 5? ? ? ? Stage 5: Depleting Population

  14. Problems • What problems do you think there could be with the model? • It does not include the influences of migration • It assumes that all countries will go through the same pattern • There is no time scale • Reasons for birth rates and death rates are very different in different countries • And finally, is there a stage 5?

  15. The End?

  16. Population Pyramids

  17. Population Pyramids • The population structure of a country is how it is made up of males and females of different ages. • The common method to show the structure is by a population pyramid. • This diagram is made up by putting two bar graphs (one for male, one for female) side by side. • From this you can read off what percentage of a population is of a certain gender and age range.

  18. Developing Countries • This population pyramid is wide at the base, which means there is a large proportion of young people in the country. • It tapers very quickly as you go up into the older age groups, and is narrow at the top. • This shows that a very small proportion of people are elderly.

  19. Developed Countries • This shape is typical of a developed country. • It is narrow at the base, wider in the middle, and stays quite wide until the very top, as there is a sizable percentage of older people. • Note that there are more old women than men.

  20. Ever-Changing Populations UK Population – 1995-2050

  21. Link to Population Pyramids? 23

  22. Different Population Pyramids Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5

  23. Demographic Transition Model Population Pyramid Model • Drawn as a line graph • Doesn't show male and female populations • Shows total population as a separate line • Gives details of countries in stages • Shows the relationship between birth and death rates and how these affect total population • Only one diagram necessary to show all stages • Drawn as a bar graph • Shows male and female population proportions • Total population is shown as the total area of the graph • Shows greater detail about the populations at each stage • 4/5 diagrams necessary to show all stages Differences between Models

  24. Population Pyramid for …?…

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