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Triangulating Peace: Understanding Democratic Peace Theory in International Politics

This week, we delve into Immanuel Kant's "Perpetual Peace", explore the concept of democratic peace, analyze the role of international trade and organizations, and discuss monadic vs. dyadic theories. We also examine exceptions to the democratic peace claim and examine the factors that make democracies less likely to go to war with each other. Join Professor James Raymond Vreeland for this insightful session.

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Triangulating Peace: Understanding Democratic Peace Theory in International Politics

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  1. International Politics, week 2: Triangulating Peace Instructor: James Raymond Vreeland, Professor 2.0

  2. Quick review of where we stopped last time

  3. Immanuel Kant (1724-1804): “Perpetual Peace” (1795)

  4. The Democratic Peace Democracy War Peace International Trade International Organizations

  5. Endogeneity?

  6. Monadic vs. Dyadic theories Ferejohn, John and Frances McCall Rosenbluth. 2008. Warlike Democracies. Journal of Conflict Resolution 52 (1):3-38.

  7. The democratic peace claim: No two democracies have ever gone to war against each other Possible exceptions • American Civil War (we’ll discuss this issue next week!) • Boer War (independence/civil war? Maybe falls into next week…) • War of 1812 (US vs. UK) • Spanish American War • WWI • Finland vs. Allies in WWII  WHAT IS DEMOCRACY? (We’ll discuss this in 2 weeks…)

  8. Dirty Pool? • “fixed effects” for dyads?

  9. Why don’t democracies fight each other? • Normative? • Structural? • Lake (1992): Democracies win the wars they enter. • Why? • Better able to marshal resources? • Audience costs? • Desire to stay in office?

  10. BDM et al. (2003):Hazard Rate over Time for Democracies (Solid Line) & Dictatorships (Dotted Line) – Time in years

  11. Are democratic commitments more credible? Veto player theory

  12. Pick out the pair: • Italy • United Kingdom • United States • Suggestions??

  13. Consider US, UK, & Italy. • Culturalists: Anglo-Saxon v. Latin • Party theorists: 2 party v. multiparty • Parliamentary theorists: • Who would group US and Italy together?

  14. What is a “veto player”? • Individual or collective actors whose agreement (by majority rule for collective actors) is required for a change of the status quo.

  15. It may be misleading to examine institutional features in isolation. • “VETO PLAYER” approach offers a consistent framework for comparing across regimes, legislature types, and party systems.

  16. On the veto player dimension: • UK: Almost always 1. • US: Up to 3. • Italy: Usually about 4. • US and Italy are predicted to be more similar with respect to policy stability than UK.

  17. VPS = “Veto Players” Puts Italy and US together

  18. How does the # of veto players affect policy stability? By definition of “veto player,” unanimity between such players is required for policy change.

  19. Straightforward prediction: • Increasing # of veto players  • Increases policy stability.

  20. Piazza on suicide terrorism • What is “selection bias”? • What is a “robust” finding?

  21. Today’s take-aways: • Democratic peace theory • The importance of accounting for domestic politics to understand international affairs • Differences in survival rates across democratic and autocratic leaders • Analytical tool: • Veto players • Skill: • How to read regression results

  22. Thank you

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