Understanding Changes in Ridership

1. Unit 7: Forecasting & Encouraging Ridership Understanding Changes in Ridership

2. Operators Strive For Increased Ridership • More Passengers = Better Service • Good measure of performance? • Challenge with Costs • Need to improve and support additional demand for service

3. Reoccurring Questions • If we make changes in transit service, how will it impact ridership? • Defining travel behavior and quantifying travel demand. • How do we proactively address both of these developments?

4. Goal of Understanding Ridership • Tells us which changes are worth the time and monetary investments • Helps us anticipate how transit system operations will evolve • Improves our planning process for selecting the best alternative

5. Class Question… What factors of a transit system affect ridership? Do these factors vary for... ...travel during different times of day? ...different types of riders? ...different trip purposes?

6. Describing these Relationships • Important to characterize exactly how changes in the transit system will affect how passengers use the transit system • Varies by region • Based on many combined factors

7. Regional: Ridership by Neighborhood

8. Location: Park & Ride Users

9. Transit Travel Behavior …is defined as: the direct and indirect ways in which patrons use the transit system, including: • Number of trips • Destinations • Activities • Trip patterns • Timing

10. TRAVEL DEMAND is an Important Topic …is defined as: the size, composition and distribution of transit ridership • Often the predominant focus of transit planners

11. A Future-based Process • Travel behavior today • Look outside! • Travel behavior tomorrow • Need to guess at: • Potential changes • How people will react How Do We Do This Accurately?

12. Future is Based on Behavioral Considerations • Estimation of future travel behavior is only as accurate as the estimates of future development • Estimates are based on current conditions and behavior; assume people act the same in the future • Estimates are determined by external factors as well as the type of system, so need to consider both • Behavior is inherently individual, so should consider personal preferences/ biases

13. Behavior Review Process

14. General Factors Affecting Travel Behavior • Transport System Context • Transit Service Characteristics • Transport Policies/ Perception Region-level Individual-level

15. Transport System Context • Population characteristics • Economic conditions • Cost & availability of alternative modes • Land use & development patterns • Travel conditions

16. Transit Service Characteristics • Service adjustments/ improvements • Partnerships & coordination • Marketing, promotion and information initiatives • Fare collection & fare structure initiatives

17. Transport Policies/ Perception • Price & availability of modes • Quality of service of modes • Characteristics of desired trips • Traveler motivation/ bias

18. Relationships are not always clear • Confounding factors • Additional factor that is the cause of behavior but is highly correlated with other factors • Lurking factors • Additional factor that is the cause of behavior but is missed in analysis

19. What is the Gas Price Tipping Point?

20. TCRP Report 128 • National review of transit travel behavior based on TOD characteristics • Found factors most influential: • Station proximity • Transit speed, frequency, comfort • Parking policies (high prices, constrained supply)

21. Behavior Trends

22. TOD Characteristics & Sensitivities

23. Methods for Analyzing Behavior • Transfer of Past Trends • Supply/ Demand • Elasticities • Demand Forecasting

24. Transfer Trends: Time Use & Scheduling Think about the last time you used transit... • When during the day was your trip? • How did it fit into your day? • How far did you travel? • Did you have to plan in advance? • Was it faster than driving?

25. Time Use & Scheduling

26. Time Use & Scheduling

27. Time Use & Scheduling • Insert scan Vuchic page 35

28. Time Use & Scheduling • Insert scan Vuchic page 35

29. Collecting Schedule Data

30. Analysis Methods • Many ways to measure this • Timing of Transit Trips • Discrete choice models • Length of Transit Trips • Hazard duration regression • Chaining of Transit Trips • Microsimulation techniques

31. Time Use/ Scheduling • Insert scan Vuchic page 36

32. Supply & Demand • Supply: • Number of patrons able to be served by transit at a given price/ travel time • Demand: • Number of patrons interested in using transit at a given price/ travel time

33. Quantifying Functions • V – Transit Passenger Demand • Units: Passengers • C – Generalized Cost • Units: Dollars (or minutes) • Includes actual and perceived costs

34. The Equilibrium Point…

35. …Constantly Moves!

36. Example 1 The travel time on a transit route from a major neighborhood to the downtown area has been observed to follow a supply trend of: The demand trend for travel between the two areas is: Determine the equilibrium travel time and passenger volume that will result on this route. Assume time is in generalized minutes and volume is in passengers per hour.

37. Example 2 If the transit agency wants to add in a 5 minute layover at a stop & ride between the neighborhood and the city center, what impact will that have on ridership?

38. Elasticities • Demand (and price) sensitivities are measured using elasticities • Demand elasticity is… the percentage change in the number of riders as a result of a one-percent change in price (or some other factor) • Simpson-Curtin rule, 3% fare increase reduces ridership by 1%

39. Elasticity Equation

40. Elastic/ Inelastic Threshold • Range from -∞ to +∞ + indicates an increase in ridership due to the 1% factor change • indicates a reduction in ridership due to the 1% factor change <|1| indicates inelasticity, with little impact >|1| indicates elasticity, with high impact

41. Cross-Elasticities

42. Example 1 Estimate the ridership elasticity for a park-ride shuttle service based on results from a cost-change experiment. Is it elastic? The shuttle currently operates with 15 minute trips and serves 45 people during the peak hour. When these people were asked if they would continue using the service if trips were made every 20 minutes, 36 said they would.

43. Example 2 Estimate the ridership cross-elasticity for a park-ride shuttle service based on results from a cost-change experiment. Is it elastic? When the same people were asked if they would continue using the service if the time it took to drive directly to the terminal was reduced from the current 30 minutes to 20 minutes, 25 agreed to stay with the park-ride shuttle service.

44. Demand Forecasting: The 4-Step Method

45. Methods for Forecasting Demand Collect Data Describing a Specific Area Predict Total # Travelers Predict % of Transit Riders Predict # Transit Riders Predict # Transit Riders Determine the Total # of Transit Riders per Timeframe

46. Methods for Forecasting Demand Collect Data Describing a Specific Area Predict Total # Travelers Predict % of Transit Riders Predict # Transit Riders Predict # Transit Riders Determine the Total # of Transit Riders per Timeframe

47. Two Approaches System Demand Approach Route Level Demand Approach Aggregate Local Spatial Scale Typically a route or stop Volume Analysis Stop arrivals Rail system studies Ridership along route • Individual/ Aggregate • Large Spatial Scale • Typically a city or region • Policy/ Choice Analysis • Mode choices • Influence on congestion

48. General Demand Forecasting Process Collect Current/ Past Behavior & Characteristic Data Collect/Project Future Characteristic Data Estimate Relationships Between Characteristics & Behavior (DEMAND MODEL) Apply Demand Model to Future Characteristic Data Predict Future Behavior

49. Data Collection System Demand Approach Route Level Demand Approach Route Opinion Survey Route only estimates and assumptions for future growth • O-D Survey • Region level estimates and assumptions for the future growth

50. Factors Affecting Demand • Service related variables tend to overwhelm demographic and employment factors • Fare costs • Travel times • Wait times • Access/ egress distances