PRRP Songbird Monitoring Proposal

1. PRRP Songbird Monitoring Proposal Travis Crane, Chandler Mundy, Travis Mote, and Morgan Mendenhall

2. Objective Develop a monitoring plan to be used with habitat management in order to double the number of bird species on the ten-mile Provo River restoration project.

3. Provo River Restoration Project Dike removal River Meanders Water Speed Flooding Replanting Upper canopy veg. Low veg. Flooded areas

4. The Habitat Types • Flooded areas

6. The Habitat Types • Flooded areas • Low vegetation

8. The Habitat Types • Flooded areas • Low vegetation • Upper canopy

10. The Habitat Types • Flooded areas • Low vegetation • Upper canopy

11. Provo River Restoration Project Dike removal River Meanders Water Speed Flooding Replanting Upper canopy veg. Low veg. Flooded areas Nesting Habitat Nesting Habitat Nesting Habitat Cover Cover Cover Diet Diet Diet

12. Provo River Restoration Project Dike removal River Meanders Water Speed Flooding Replanting Upper canopy veg. Low veg. Flooded areas Nesting Habitat Nesting Habitat Nesting Habitat Cover Cover Cover Diet Diet Diet warbling vireo Wilson’s warbler yellow-headed black bird black-headed grosbeak Predators

13. Characteristics of the indicator species 1. Species must be relatively easy and inexpensive to monitor. 2. Indicators should be sensitive to the environment and will fluctuate in the same manner as their guild. 3. Species have direct relationship to target population. 4. Most importantly, indicators should meet management’s objectives of being adequate predictors of the target population.

14. Model of Indicator Species A Diet D B C Habitat

15. Warbling Vireo Vireo gilvus

16. Yellow-headed Blackbird Xanthocephalus xanthocephalus

17. Black-headed Grosbeak Pheucticus melanocephalus

18. Wilson's WarblerWilsonia pusilla

19. METHODS Transect Surveys: yellow-headed blackbird Point Counts: warbling vireo, Wilson’s warbler, and black-headed grosbeak

20. Transect Surveys Transect Direction 100 meters

21. Point Counts

22. Analytical Methods Relative Abundance Presence/Absence Richness/Diversity

23. Statistical Software Computer programs will be heavily used to calculate and interpret data using statistical tools. • SAS • STATA

24. Chi-Square Test (2) 2=observed-expected expected

25. Paired T-test • Compare 2 or more years • Sampling units permanent • Measurement Data • Data grouped in transects or clusters

26. Paired T-test • Is there a statistically significant result? • What is the likelihood that no true change occurred and that any observed difference is the result of random sampling error? • Does the observed change have any biological significance?

27. Does the observed change have any biological significance? The power value uses the sample size, sample standard deviation, threshold significance level (α) and an effect size considered biologically important. The minimum detectable change is another calculation to judge biological significance. It uses the power value to calculate what minimum level of change could be detected.

28. Species diversity and richness Species richness is analyzed as a total number of species detected. Evenness, or the relative abundance of a species, is incorporated with species richness into a diversity index. Many indices exist; we will use the Shannon-Weaver index

29. Sampling Design Detect a minimum change of 20% with a 95% confidence level • Pilot Study • Ensure capture of population variation • Ensure narrow confidence interval • ● Low bias, no 0’s • ● Increased precision • Determine number of samples and plot size

30. The estimated sample sizes n=(st/E)2

32. Expected Products • Population estimates for indicator species • Species diversity for all three habitat types • Map of all study sites • Guidelines of monitoring methods • Management recommendations