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Digging into Construction Data

Digging into Construction Data. NABE Real Estate/Construction Roundtable webinar, April 8, 2010 Ken Simonson, Chief Economist AGC of America simonsonk@agc.org. 2. Economic impact of nonresidential construction. Jobs: 28,500 per $1 billion 1/3 direct, onsite construction

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Digging into Construction Data

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  1. Digging into Construction Data NABE Real Estate/Construction Roundtable webinar, April 8, 2010 Ken Simonson, Chief Economist AGC of America simonsonk@agc.org

  2. 2 Economic impact of nonresidential construction • Jobs: 28,500per $1 billion • 1/3 direct, onsite construction • 1/6 indirect (quarries, mfg., services) • 1/2 “induced” by spending from higher earnings of construction, indirect workers and owners • GDP: $3.4 billion • Personal Earnings: $1.1 billion Source: Prof. Stephen Fuller, George Mason University

  3. Construction Spending, 2000-2009 GDP and Construction Spending (SAAR Annual Level, $ in billions) Construction as a % of GDP GDP Construction Source: Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis

  4. 4 Construction spending by segment, 1- & 12-month changeSeasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) nTotal Construction ($846b, -1.3%, -13%) Private Nonresidential ($303b, -0.4%, -24%) Public ($293b, -1.7%, -5%) Private Residential ($251b, -2.1%, -3.8%) Source: Census Bureau

  5. Single-family (SF) vs. multifamily (MF) 5

  6. 6 Housing outlook • SF: starts, permits should rise throughout ‘10 • MF: No improvement likely until ‘11 - Rental demand hurt by job losses among would-be renters and by first-time homebuyer credit - Supply swelled by owners and banks who are trying to rent out houses and condos - Banks remain unwilling to lend to developers Source: Author

  7. 7 Nonres totals (billion $, SAAR), share, 1- & 12-month change Source: Census Bureau

  8. Construction spending: industrial, heavy (billion $, SAAR) 2008, 2009,2010 8

  9. 9 Construction spending: public works (billion $, SAAR) 2008, 2009,2010

  10. 10 Construction spending: institutional (private + state/local)2008, 2009,2010

  11. 11 Construction spending: developer-financed (billion $, SAAR) 2008, 2009,2010

  12. Predictors of construction demand 12 Architecture & engineering services empl. Source: American Institute of Architects, BLS

  13. 13 Summary for 2010 • Nonres spending: 0 to -5% (more stimulus put in place, maybe gains in retail, higher ed, hospitals) • Res: +5 to +10% (SF up, MF down all year) • Total construction spending: -4% to +2% • Materials costs: 0% to +8% • Labor costs: +3% or less Source: Author

  14. 14 AGC economic resources (email simonsonk@agc.org) • The Data DIGest: weekly one-page email (sign up: www.agc.org/datadigest) • PPI tables: emailed monthly • State and metro data • Stimulus info: www.agc.org/stimulus • Webinars (May 4 w/ AIA, Reed) • Feedback on stimulus, credit, costs

  15. 15 NABE - Setting the pace in business economics • Professional Development Seminar: DC, 4/12-14 • Housing and construction session • Annual meeting: Denver, 10/9-12 • Real Estate/Construction Roundtable • Webinars, annual & spring meeting programs • Statistics Committee …much more at www.nabe.com Source: Prof. Stephen Fuller, George Mason University

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