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Freight Movement Model Development for Oklahoma – Phase 2

OU/OSU03-02 and OU/OSU03-04. Freight Movement Model Development for Oklahoma – Phase 2. Project Description. A prototype software system to run the Freight Movement Model for Oklahoma Multiple deliverables spanning 3 years

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Freight Movement Model Development for Oklahoma – Phase 2

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  1. OU/OSU03-02 and OU/OSU03-04 Freight Movement Model Development for Oklahoma – Phase 2

  2. Project Description • A prototype software system to run the Freight Movement Model for Oklahoma • Multiple deliverables spanning 3 years • First year – Math model for United States freight flow and detailed survey of the databases to feed data to Regional Model • Second year – Validation & verification of the Math model using historical data available and development of software prototype • Third year – development of State Model with inputs from regional model output

  3. Regional Model Development Outcomes – 1st year • Primary purpose – to generate incoming, outgoing, and through freight by commodity, by mode, and by route for Oklahoma • Modified Four-stage Travel Demand Model • Trip Generation • Trip Distribution • Mode Split /Trip Assignment

  4. Regional Model Development continued.. • First step – Code Mapping • Relationship between Industry and Commodity groups • Complete Mapping between 1997 Industry Codes (NAICS) and Commodity Groups (SCTG) developed

  5. Code Mapping An Illustration of Code Mapping

  6. Regional Model Development Phase 2 - Summary U.S. Regional Database Commodity by SCTG by Modes (Road, Rail, Air, Water) Process Output Input Business Data by States by SCTG Trip Generation (Growth Factor Model) Trips Generated by States by SCTG Input Output Trip Distribution (Gravity Model) Trips Generated State-to-State using Distance/time empirical parameters State-to-State Trips by SCTG Input Output Mode Split/Trip Assignment (Network Model) Network Types by Mode Link - Node Attributes by Mode using Network Algorithms State-to-State Trips by SCTG by modes (Incoming, outgoing and through flows)

  7. Regional Model Development continued… • Trip generation • Generated freight trips – origin and destination for 50 States using Commodity Flow Survey Database and Census Data (People and Business) • Stepwise Regression used to identify contributing variables • Two parts • Trip production • Trip attraction

  8. Trip Generation continued… • Trip production • Freight production by state is a function of business and production information in the state • Contributing variables include Establishments and employment • Trip attraction • Freight attraction by state is a function of population and business consumption in the state • Contributing variables include Population, Employment, and Income • Example for Alcoholic Beverages(SCTG09)

  9. Trip Distribution • Using the regression model, predict the future year freight flow by applying growth factors for independent variables • Distribute the freight between states using gravity model

  10. Mode Split/Trip Assignment • Mode split is inbuilt in Trip Assignment • All or Nothing assignment using Network Model • Assigns freight one commodity at a time i.e., different networks for different commodities

  11. Mode Split/Trip Assignment continued… The Network diagram

  12. Expected Outcomes – Phase 3 • Verification of math models for the Regional freight flow to generate incoming, outgoing, and through freight by mode, by commodity and by route for Oklahoma • Development of prototype software to implement the regional model

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