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New Mexico Population Projections: Assumptions, Methods, Validation, and Results

New Mexico Population Projections: Assumptions, Methods, Validation, and Results. For the Data User Conference Geospatial and Population Studies University of New Mexico Nov. 2013. Method. Using the Census 2010 county level age-sex break-ups as the base year anchor population.

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New Mexico Population Projections: Assumptions, Methods, Validation, and Results

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  1. New Mexico Population Projections: Assumptions, Methods, Validation, and Results For the Data User Conference Geospatial and Population Studies University of New Mexico Nov. 2013

  2. Method • Using the Census 2010 county level age-sex break-ups as the base year anchor population. • Using NMDOH Birth Records to calculate 5-year average 5-year age group birth rate. • Using NMDOH Death Records to calculate 5-year average single-year ASMR. • Migration from three sources: forward surviving, backward surviving, and IRS tax return exempts.

  3. Decomposing Process to fit into Cohort Component Method Input Basic Population Component Data input Base Population 1 year or 5 year age group population by sex + Childbearing age population Data input TFR Birth ASFR - Sex Ratio Data input ASMR Life Table and Life Expectancy Death CDR + Census Forward Survival migration Data input IRS cross tabulated migration Migration = Single Year Age Population Projection Process Future Population Method Summary

  4. Assumptions • Total fertility rate, TFR, is used as the assumption for birth, and is assumed to converge at 2.1 at the end of projection period. • Life expectancy is used to represent the assumption for mortality, and is assumed to converge at national level at the end of projection period. • Migration population is assumed to join and share the same TFR and life expectancy as local people.

  5. Migration Method: Forward Surviving

  6. Migration Method: Backward Surviving

  7. Migration Method: Average Three Sets of Migration Data • Average age-sex structure from forward and backward surviving method • Apply the averaged age-sex structure to the tax return exempt county totals • Average the three sets of migration data to obtain the data for migration input • Run Cohort Component Model

  8. Migration Method: Comparison New Mexico Annual Total Net Migration 10 year average, both sex

  9. Validation: Natural Increase and Migration • The percentage contribution of natural increase and net migration changes over the 30 years.

  10. Validation: Dependency Ratio for Young Group

  11. Validation: Dependency Ratio for Senior Group

  12. Validation: Dependency Ratio over Projection Period

  13. Comparison of Historical Trend

  14. Using Excel Macro Program to Retrieve Customized Data Table Result

  15. Thank you! Contact：Xiaomin Ruan xmruan@gmail.com 505-277-3541

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