Can Solar Energy Replace Oil?

1. Can Solar Energy Replace Oil? Hubbert Peaks Forum Ron Swenson www.ecotopia.com/ISES

2. The Pretenders IEA, EIA Shell, BP Saudi Aramco Lynch, Adelman Yergin Lovins www.HubbertPeak.com/Pretenders

3. The Pretenders (closer to home) “The Commission does not embrace the view that world oil production has peaked — The National Commission on Energy Policy www.HubbertPeak.com/Pretenders

4. The Hubbert Peak We know it’s coming … but what can we do about it?

5. A flurry of books on the subject … www.HubbertPeak.com/Library

6. Hubbert's Peak “At the moment, solar and wind power are developing in specialized areas. Neither is an immediate, large-scale solution to the energy problem.” Kenneth S. Deffeyes www.HubbertPeak.com/apollo2

7. Beyond Oil “Solar electrical generation is not yet competitive for large-scale facilities... To my surprise, solar cells to produce 60 watts cost $1,000.” Kenneth S. Deffeyes www.HubbertPeak.com/apollo2

8. The Party's Over “Photovoltaic electricity is still expensive.” Richard Heinberg www.HubbertPeak.com/apollo2

9. The End of Oil “Solar energy technology 'is still too expensive by a factor of four to compete with nuclear and by a factor of three to compete with natural gas,' says Paul Maycock... “Solar faces two related obstacles -- prohibitive costs and a [bad] reputation...” Paul Roberts www.pvenergy.com

10. Oil Addiction: The World in Peril “But all of them combined -- sun, wind, and water -- could never produce enough energy to replace the astronomical amounts of fossil fuel the West is accustomed to consuming now.” Pierre Chomat www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm

11. Global Solar Energy Balance www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm

12. Oil, Jihad & Destiny “Solar power technology, however, is still in the stone age.” Ronald R. Cooke www.HubbertPeak.com/Youngquist

13. The Long Emergency “Active solar power ... works, though not nearly as well as fossil fuel… “Alternative energy sources ... are … implausible … without the subsidy of oil. The only remaining alternative is nuclear energy.” James Howard Kunstler www.HubbertPeak.com/nuclear

14. Over a Barrel “... The amount of solar energy that falls on a car yields very marginal performance. “Current technology for solar-generated electricity results in costly power.” Tom Mast www.SolaREvolution.com

15. I think they´re trying to tell us something … But wait…. Economics is an instrument of Policy

16. 3% decline per year Useful Lifetime 25 Years The Energy Cost of Energy 75 Net Energy Analysis 100 Cumulative new energy from investment Annual contribution from alternate energy source www.HubbertPeak.com/Modeling

17. 85 Available (net) Energy after Investment The Energy Cost of Energy 75 60 Net Energy Analysis 100 Cumulative new energy from investment www.HubbertPeak.com/Modeling

18. 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 10 20 30 40 Time Consequence of Delayed Investment Net Energy Production begin investment before decline Begin investment during decline www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil

19. Thermodynamics of Coal Plus… • Greenhouse gases • Ravaged land • Water contamination • People displaced • Extraction uses oil ?

20. Thermodynamics of Oil It depends … • Pennsylvania? • Saudi Arabia? • Off-shore? Plus • Ravaged land/oceans • Greenhouse gases • Water contamination ?

21. Thermodynamics of Tar Sands Plus… • Greenhouse gases • Ravaged land • Water contamination • Extraction uses natural gas

22. Thermodynamics of Nuclear Plus … • Depletion • Low grade ores → Greenhouse gases to process • Wastes guarded for 10,000+ years ? … How do we value a 1,000(?) year wasteland?

23. Thermodynamics of Hydrogen A possible solution for special applications? Motivations? • Promote nuclear? • Promote natural gas? • Deliberate distraction? • Earnest ignorance?

24. Thermodynamics of PV • EROI: 5 years • Life: 50 years

25. Thermodynamics of Thin Film PV • EROI: 6 months • Life: 25 years

26. Thermodynamics of Wind • EROI: 3 months • Life: 25 years

27. Thermodynamics vs. Economics … in the long run … Thermo-dynamics wins! Policy can´t defeat Mother Nature.

28. Solar Economics: A Brief History • Thomas Edison • Bucky Fuller • Hazel Henderson • Hermann Scheer • Richard Smalley www.ecotopia.com/ISES

29. Thomas Edison “I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.” (1847-1931) www.ThomasEdison.com

30. Bucky Fuller “More with Less” 1966 www.bfi.org

31. Hazel Henderson “The US oil, coal and automobile lobbies are still trying to hold back the future information-based, Solar Age.  They should start investing more in this cleaner, greener future.” 1989 www.environomics.org

32. Colin Campbell “Photovoltaics … will be economic … when there is serious production.” 1996 www.HubbertPeak.com/Campbell

33. Hermann Scheer “Solar technologies are … potentially the most economic solution.” 2004 www.HubbertPeak.com/Scheer

34. Richard Smalley “Think TeraWatts” 2004 Smalley.Rice.edu → Our Energy Challenge

35. Solar Industry Response? Goal 50% US electricity by 2025 Target 200 gW by 2030 = 10% How? • Federal government procurement $100 m/year • R&D investment $250 m/year by 2010 • “Enact, modify, establish, boost, support, increase, strengthen, grow…” www.HubbertPeak.com/Apollo2

36. Swenson´s Law To avoid deprivation resulting from the exhaustion of non-renewable resources, humanity must employ conservation and renewable resource substitutes sufficient to match depletion. www.HubbertPeak.com/Swenson

37. The conclusion is simple: We are not doing enough. To spend our depleting energy capital resources effectively, we must first understand the Thermodynamics (EROI) of the alternatives. Economics or Thermodynamics: Which will we choose?

38. Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil? Yes! Think TeraWatts www.ecotopia.com/ISES