Resurgent Cities? European Urban Trajectories 1960-2005

1. Resurgent Cities?European Urban Trajectories 1960-2005 Vlad Mykhnenko & Ivan Turok Centre for Public Policy for Regions (CPPR) & Department of Urban Studies, University of Glasgow The RGS-IBG Annual International Conference, The Royal Geographical Society, Kensington Gore, London 30th August 2006

2. Background • New conventional wisdom about the contribution of cities to national and regional growth • contain the key drivers of innovation, creativity and productivity in advanced, knowledge-based economies • provide vital economic, social, educational and cultural facilities to help attract and retain vital human capital and creative talent(‘buzz’) • contain the assets and infrastructure to attract high order business and consumer services & tourism

3. Illustration • “Cities and metropolitan areas are drivers of economic development … creating growth, innovation and employment … The European Union will be most successful in pursuing its growth and jobs agenda, if all regions – especially those with the greatest potential for higher productivity and employment – are able to play their part. Cities are essential in this effort. They are the home of most jobs, businesses, and higher education institutions and are key actors in achieving social cohesion. Cities are the centres of change, based on innovation, entrepreneurship and business growth” (European Commission, 2005)

4. Research Questions • Are there any signs of an improvement (‘resurgence’) in the position of European cities – in historical terms & relative to their national contexts? • Any obvious attributes associated with stronger or weaker city growth? • size • regional location • national political-economy

5. Population as an indicator of urban economic dynamism and growth • A consequence of wider conditions in different places – differential employment opportunities • A contributor to economic development – skilled labour, enterprise, demand for consumer & public services • Both facilitated by rising personal mobility, wider regional disparities, falling international barriers (hence easier ‘adjustment’) and increasing policy attention • Hence economic and demographic trends becoming more interdependent • “there can be no doubt that at all stages of urban growth and decline there is causal interaction between population and employment movement” (Cheshire and Hay, 1989)

6. Link between population & employment trends UK: employment and population correlation in NUTS-2 regions, 1985-1995 EU-25: employment and population correlations in NUTS-1 regions, 1995-2003 Eurostat Regio Database (2006). Eurostat Regio Database (2006) and NOMIS (2006).

7. Five propositions • The rate of population growth in cities has increased in recent years and in relation to their national averages • Big cities have performed better than smaller cities ‘cos of the larger scale of opportunities, assets & amenities • Cities in the economic and political core of Europe (where proximity to wealth and power is high) are growing more strongly than those in the periphery • Cities located in regions with a higher quality of life (e.g sunnier climate) have out-performed cities elsewhere • Western European cities are growing more strongly than those in the East

8. Methods and data sources • City as a continuous built-up area with over 200,000 population in 2000 • Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals • Created by amalgamating constituent local authorities or using nationally defined urban agglomerations • Yields 310 cities in 36 countries of Western and Eastern Europe • They account for 37% of total population (42% in Western Europe; 30% in Eastern) • Data traced back to 1960 at 5-year intervals

9. Examples of British and Irish cities

10. Key findings Europe overall

11. Far fewer growing cities than before, more declining cities

12. Relative improvement for large cities

13. Absolute fall of small cities

14. But not strong statistically

15. 1960s-70s were all about urbanisation, esp to smaller cities. Not any more Relationship between urbanisation and city growth rates

16. Levels of urbanisation and population concentration in cities have stabilised; The East-West gap endures

17. Most cities have become growth laggards, following rather than leading national population change trends

18. Quality of life not an influence

19. Key findings The West v. the East

20. Dramatic decline in Eastern Europe;Steady decline then stabilising in the West

21. Number of growing cities flatters the West, disparages the East

22. Most cities still lagging in the West; Dramatic transformation in the East

23. Cities lag behind more in the West, but have stabilised. Major decline in the East

24. No differences between cities in the core and periphery

25. Capital cities are growing faster, especially in the West, recently in the East

26. Continuity + decline in Eastern Europe

27. Similar but confused by ‘recovery’ in the West

28. Trajectories: long-term growth, fairly recent decline but little resurgence

29. Conclusions – Western Europe • Cities clearly out-paced national trends during the 1960s and early 1970s – engines of growth • Then sharp slowdown lasting a decade • Then broadly stabilising at a low rate of growth and below national trends • Slight recovery since the nadir of early 1980s, especially for large cities/capitals, but not robust • Many more cities are now growing than shrinking, but only very slowly • Resurgence premature, but improvement signs

30. Conclusions – Eastern Europe • Cities far out-paced national trends throughout the 1960s-1980s – partly planned, partly universal (yet failed) urbanisation ‘catching-up’ with the West • Then dramatic slowdown lasting a decade • Broadly stabilising at a slow rate of decline, analogous to national trends • No recovery since the nadir of the late 1990s, except for a few large cities and capitals • Four times as many cities are now shrinking than growing