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Challenge Bibendum 2010 Guest Forum The Marketplace for E-Mobility

Challenge Bibendum 2010 Guest Forum The Marketplace for E-Mobility. Rio de Janeiro, June 2, 2010. Global Drivers for Future Mobility Solutions. Economy/Per Capita Income Population Wealth Distribution Oil Prices World CO 2 Regulations Values IT/Technology Use.

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Challenge Bibendum 2010 Guest Forum The Marketplace for E-Mobility

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  1. Challenge Bibendum 2010Guest Forum The Marketplace for E-Mobility Rio de Janeiro, June 2, 2010

  2. Global Drivers for Future Mobility Solutions • Economy/Per Capita Income • Population • Wealth Distribution • Oil Prices • World CO2 Regulations • Values • IT/Technology Use

  3. Mobility has Traditionally Been Measured by the Level of Motorization. Motorization is Primarily a Function of Wealth • Mature markets • Very wealthy • Established industry • Motorization rate leveling off • Growth markets • Wealth is building • Growing local industry • Rate of motorization is increasing rapidly as a function of wealth • Emerging markets • Breaking the $5,000 per capita threshold • Indigenous industry just beginning to emerge • Motorization will increase rapidly

  4. Just Imagine! 2030 is Only One Platform Cycle Away …It is Only the Day After Tomorrow! • If our current model of mobility is maintained, there will be demand for the equivalent of three billion vehicles on the roads of the world by 2035 • Imagine what this world will be like, considering the mobility challenges we face today when there are only 800 million vehicles in-use globally • Clearly, this model of mobility can not be maintained. The scenarios will explore different pathways for the evolution of motorization 1) Gott, Philip; Is Mobility As We Know It Sustainable? International Automotive Mobility Forum, 2008, Geneva, Switzerland

  5. World Economic Growth is Far From Certain 5

  6. Population Trends are More Predictable: An Aging Consumer Living More and More in Urban Areas… The Share of Population Over 65 Years Is Growing World Population Trends to 2050 Today Urban Areas Source: World Urbanization Prospects: The 2004 Revision Source: World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, United Nations Economic and Social Affairs, 2007

  7. … With a Rising Old Age Dependency Ratio 7 W. Europe Sources: US Census, UN Population Prospects 2008. Note: Ratio is calculated by dividing population aged 65 years and older by population aged 15–64.

  8. … And Increasingly “Eco-aware” • Future indications point towards more ‘awareness’ with the consumer, potentially resulting in pressure for mobility providers to offer more eco-acceptable transport solutions • The ‘Eco Sensor’ Concept from Finnish cell phone maker Nokia features a sensor that measures CO, CO2, particulate matter, and ground-level ozone. • Real-time consumption measurement Source: Nokia

  9. Locally Determined Drivers for Future Global Mobility Solutions Market Dependant Mobility Solution Drivers • Energy • Attitudes (Resource Conservation) • Mobility Regulations • Lifestyle • Free-Time • LD Infrastructures • Local Infrastructures • Technology and Safety

  10. Lifestyle Is A Function Of Where People Live Megacity • >10 million population • 19 in 2007 • 27 in 2025 Urban • Includes suburban areas • >400 people/km2 Rural Source: Courtesy of, Alexander Augst

  11. Social Stability Energy Costs Use of Information Technologies Per Capita Income Social Consciousness Demographics Economic Well-Being Politics Natural Resources Available Planning for Mobility in the Future: 2030 2025 Cornutopia 2015 2010 2008 Business As Expected Disruptive Possible Future Business Environments Rural Lifestyle Urban Mega Cities Emerging Growth Markets Mature As Expected Cornutopia Disruptive Economic, Regulatory & Energy Environment

  12. Global Drivers Business As Expected / Cornutopia / Disruptive What’s The Outcome? Technology Economy/GDP Co2 Wealth Distri 2035 Values Energy Price Population Likely A Little Bit Of Each Scenario Across The Globe

  13. Today’s Conventional Wisdoms Are Challenged • We currently purchase vehicles that are excessive for their most frequent missions • Downsizing with greater flexibility for vehicle functionality is needed • The Car of the Future will be more tuned to its intended use/mission profile • As long as the user is assured access to more versatile vehicles when needed • More people will accept a truly small car (Nano, Fiat 500, Smart and smaller) as long as access to more versatile vehicles can be assured when they are needed • Accident prevention is essential • Emotions will play a less important role in the purchase decision • The more urbanized an area, the less emotions are tied to ownership • Emotions are independent of car size • Shared fleets will be purchased based on a balance of business criteria and emotional appeal to car share members/users

  14. The Role of the Car Will Be Altered! • Forces Driving Change Include • Aging population • Vehicle usage rethink • Vehicle design/powertrain rethink • Do I need to ‘own’ the vehicle? • Virtual mobility • A need for “Integrated Mobility Services” to cover various phases of travel seamlessly • Car sharing meets the “integrated mobility” needs very well. It will be encouraged • How will this be provided?

  15. Implications The Urban Car of the Future will be: • Largely used in urban areas for relatively short trips • Managed by car-sharing fleets • Fueled by a diversity of energy forms • Compatible with dense traffic conditions and a potentially compromised driver Source: MIT Source: Ford Motor Co

  16. e-mobility Source: iphone.wareseeker.com Mobility Will Mean Far More Than Access to a Car Motorization Compared to Internet Density vs. Income • Mobility has always been an extension of humankinds boundaries • Physical mobility has always been paramount, and will remain a strong component of mobility • Personal • Shared • Collective • It will be joined by other forms of mobility Per 1000 People Motorization Source: Internet World Stats

  17. “Business-as-usual” is the least-likely scenario! • To sum it up, while the Car of the Future is likely to be predominantly smaller, right-sized and electric and fleet-owned to facilitate sharing, the future car is to play a much less important role in the lifestyle of tomorrow's city-dweller. • The change in ownership, size and energy source will help mitigate the impact of each vehicle on its physical surroundings; the sheer reduction in its use will be the most effective way to ensure that the mobility provided is sustainable. Source: Toyota Source: General Motors Source: PSA

  18. Thank you! Phil Gott, Managing Director Automotive Science and Technology IHS Automotive Consulting philip.gott@ihsglobalinsight.com

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