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Simulation of the German electricity sector with the Canadian Integrated Modelling System (CIMS)

Simulation of the German electricity sector with the Canadian Integrated Modelling System (CIMS). Frank Sensfuß 16.10.2004 Flensburg. Intro. CIMS. Retirement. Results. Summary. Outlook. Structure of the presentation. Introduction Overview of CIMS Retirement Results Summary Outlook.

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Simulation of the German electricity sector with the Canadian Integrated Modelling System (CIMS)

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  1. Simulation of the German electricity sector with the Canadian Integrated Modelling System (CIMS) Frank Sensfuß 16.10.2004 Flensburg

  2. Intro CIMS Retirement Results Summary Outlook Structure of the presentation • Introduction • Overview of CIMS • Retirement • Results • Summary • Outlook

  3. Intro CIMS Retirement Results Summary Outlook General information • CIMS is developed by the EMRG, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver • Bottom up model • Simulation is myopic in 5 year steps (2035) • Technology selection is • based on specific cost • takes place within load segments • Stock unit: GJ output, capacity is neglected • Main goal : Increase behavioural realism of bottom up models

  4. Intro CIMS Retirement Results Summary Outlook CIMS Technology Selection • Adjustable Parameters „Flip Flop“ can be avoided more realistic market behaviour

  5. Intro CIMS Retirement Results Summary Outlook Power plants: Agestructure and necessary investments

  6. Intro CIMS Retirement Results Summary Outlook Overview simulation runs

  7. Intro CIMS Retirement Results Summary Outlook Business as usual scenario

  8. Intro CIMS Retirement Results Summary Outlook CO2 reduction scenario

  9. Intro CIMS Retirement Results Summary Outlook Business as usual scenario

  10. Intro CIMS Retirement Results Summary Outlook CO2 reduction scenario

  11. Intro CIMS Retirement Results Summary Outlook Summary: Results (1) • Tendency towards gas fired power plants • Combined cycle power plants • Industrial CHP • EPR is only competitive in the CO2 reduction scenario • Changed gas emission factor • Shift to IGCC with CO2 capture • No-CO2capture scenario • Shift towards windenergy and gas

  12. Intro CIMS Retirement Results Summary Outlook Summary (2): Results- Renewables • In all the scenarios the development of renewables is too low • Likely reasons • Intangible value of environmental friendliness • Risk reduction by the guaranteed feed in tariff • Tax issues • Low interest rate loans Further investigation seems to be necessary Realiable results on renewables are crucial !!

  13. Loadcurve of German windenergy 2020-good windyear Intro CIMS Retirement Results Summary Outlook

  14. Modelling behavioural realism at the ISI: PowerACE • Behavioural realism with Multi agent systems • Software Agents which act like real market players • Integration of operative issues • Modelling of Spot/OTC markets • Integration of the evolving CO2 permit market • Integration of load issues (renewables) • Investment planning • Analysis of policies for the support of renewables • Impact of renewables on operation planning for powerplants • Impact of renewables on spot markets Intro CIMS Retirement Results Summary Outlook http://www.powerace.de

  15. Thank you!

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