Buck Consultants Int., the Netherlands AUEB, Greece ITS, United Kingdom JRC IPTS, Spain / EU

1. Buck Consultants Int., the Netherlands AUEB, Greece ITS, United Kingdom JRC IPTS, Spain / EU KUL - SADL, Belgium LT, Finland SenterNovem, the Netherlands S&W, Germany Stratec, Belgium TIS.PT, Portugal TRL, United Kingdom TRT, Italy TTR, United Kingdom UPM, Spain

2. WP4 - Modelling and forecasting: outcome of the scenarios Content of the presentation • Objectives • Structure of the WP • Description of the models • (im)possibilities of modelling scenarios • Workplan

3. WP4 Modelling – Objectives of the WP • Objectives • running a set of models to produce forecasts concerning a number of relevant impacts of the scenarios developed in WP 3. • Impacts include: transport demand, energy consumption, greenhouse and polluting emissions, regional development, local accessibility, ... • Impacts are considered at European and local/regional levels.

4. WP4 Modelling – WP structure • Participants: • TRT (WP leader) • ITS • JRC-IPTS • LT • NOVEM • S&W • STRATEC • UPM • Timetable: starting February 2005 – ending September 2005 • Twodeliberablesexpected: • D4.1 Modelling tools (April 2005) • D4.2 Modelling result (September 2005)

5. WP4 Modelling – WP structure • WP4 structure • Task 4.1 Definition of a common modelling framework (responsible NOVEM) Definition of consistent values and trends for relevant variables common to more models, identification of scenarios variables, definition of the procedure to simulate the scenarios using the whole modelling suite in a co-ordinated fashion • Task 4.2 Forecast at European level (responsible IPTS) Carrying out refinements and adaptations to the models (if required), implementing input for running scenarios according to the methodology defined previously, running models to simulate scenarios • Task 4.3 Forecast at local level (responsible S&W) Carrying out refinements and adaptations to the models (if required), implementing input for running scenarios according to the methodology defined previously, running models to simulate scenarios • Task 4.4 Integration and reporting (responsible TRT)Analysing model outcomes and producing indicators

6. WP4 Modelling – WP structure • Task 4.1 Definition of a common modelling framework • The use of different modelling tools to simulate the same scenarios requires the definition of a consistent framework. • Agreement on which variables of each model can be used to represent the features of each scenario • Agreement on which results can be exchanged/compared between models. The modelling tools will work as independent models with a loose integration in terms of: • Comparison of common variables across models • output exchange • Integration should not require models re-calibration • Input will come from task 3.4 of WP3.

7. WP4 Modelling – WP structure • Task 4.2 Forecast at European level • Scenarios will be simulated by the models at the European scale (ASTRA – SASI – POLES) • Each model will produce forecasts focused on its main scope • Task 4.3 Forecast at local level • Scenarios will be simulated at local/regional level • Outcomes of European models will constitute a background.

8. WP4 Modelling – WP structure • Task 4.4 Integration and reporting • Analysing model outcomes and producing indicators • Drawing up the deliverable with the contribution of all modellers to describe the models results

9. WP4 Modelling – Description of the models • WP4 modelling tools: European models • ASTRA System Dynamics Model focused on linkages between transport, economy and environment • SASI model concerning the impacts of transport on socio-economic development • POLES model analysing the energy market, transport and socio-economic interconnections

10. WP4 Modelling – Description of the models ASTRA System Dynamics Model TRANSPORT SYSTEM ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEM SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEM KEY INPUT • TRANSPORT SYSTEM transport modes speed, transport cost, trip generation rates, volume-to-value ratios, load factors, vehicle occupancy factors • ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEM emission factors, unitary fuel consumptions • SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEM taxation, fertility, mortality,.. MAIN OUTPUTS • TRANSPORT SYSTEM traffic performance, modal split, vehicle fleet size and composition • ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEM fuel consumption, emission levels • SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEM GDP, employment, investments, tax revenues

11. WP4 Modelling – Description of the models SASI Model TRANSPORT SYSTEM SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEM KEY INPUT • TRANSPORT SYSTEM transport cost, travel time • SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEM labour productivity, endowment, fertility, mortality,.. MAIN OUTPUTS • TRASPORT SYSTEM regional accessibility • SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEM GDP, employment, labour force, population

12. WP4 Modelling – Description of the models POLES Model TRANSPORT SYSTEM ENERGY SYSTEM SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEM KEY INPUT • TRANSPORT SYSTEM techno-economic characterisation, fuel efficiency, emission levels,car costs • SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEM GDP, population, fuel taxes, carbon taxes, subsidies for technology, emission limits,.. MAIN OUTPUTS • TRANSPORT SYSTEM vehicle fleet size and composition, fuel consumption, emission levels • ENERGY SYSTEM energy prices

13. WP4 Modelling – Description of the models • WP4 modelling tools: regional models • Dortmund model • South Tyrol Meplan model • Helsinki Meplan model • Brussels Tranus model • Edinburgh SPM model

14. WP4 Modelling – Description of the models Dortmund Model LAND USE SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRANSPORT ENVIRONMENT MAIN OUTPUTS • TRANSPORT traffic performance, average trip length, trip by purpose and mode,.. • ENVIRONMENT CO2 emissions by transport • SOCIO-ECONOMIC total employment, unemployment rate, population migration, taxation.. • LAND USE Housing floorspace per capita, industrial relocation KEY INPUT • TRANSPORT public transport services, road network, transport costs, tariffs,… • SOCIO-ECONOMIC Labour forces, population, taxation.. • LAND USE local land use planning, local public facilities,.. • ENVIRONMENT CO2 emission functions

15. WP4 Modelling – Description of the models South Tyrol Meplan Model LAND USE SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRANSPORT ENVIRONMENT KEY INPUT • TRANSPORT public transport services, road network, transport costs, tariffs,occupancy factors,.. • SOCIO-ECONOMIC employment, population,.. • LAND USE floorspace destination • ENVIRONMENT emission functions, fuel consumption factors MAIN OUTPUTS • TRANSPORT traffic performance, modal split, load on link, average speed, level of congestion • ENVIRONMENT Fuel consumption , emissions level • LAND USE floorspace price, zone attractiveness

16. WP4 Modelling – Description of the models Helsinki Meplan Model LAND USE SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRANSPORT ENVIRONMENT KEY INPUT • TRANSPORT public transport services, road network, transport costs, tariffs,occupancy factors,.. • SOCIO-ECONOMIC employment, population,… • LAND USE floorspace use • ENVIRONMENT emission functions, fuel consumption factors MAIN OUTPUTS • TRANSPORT traffic performance, modal split, load on link, average speed, level of congestion • ENVIRONMENT Fuel consumption , emissions level • LAND USE floorspace price, zone attractiveness

17. WP4 Modelling – Description of the models Brussels Tranus Model LAND USE SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRANSPORT ENVIRONMENT KEY INPUT • TRANSPORT public transport services, road network, transport costs, tariffs,car ownership,.. • SOCIO-ECONOMIC employment, population,.. • LAND USE location of households, jobs and commercial activities • ENVIRONMENT emission functions, fuel consumption factors MAIN OUTPUTS • TRANSPORT passenger-km for the public transport, vehicle-km for the private vehicles • ENVIRONMENT Fuel consumption ,CO2 emissions

18. WP4 Modelling – Description of the models Edinburgh SPM Model LAND USE SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRANSPORT ENVIRONMENT KEY INPUT • TRANSPORT transport costs, distances, public transport frequencies, tolls, taxes, parking costs, commute trip rate, occupancy factors.. • SOCIO-ECONOMIC average income, population, car-ownership, workplaces, employment, licence holding,.. • LAND USE land use for residential, commercial and green space • ENVIRONMENT emission functions, fuel consumption factors MAIN OUTPUTS • TRANSPORT traffic performance, modal split, load on link, average speed, level of congestion • ENVIRONMENT Fuel consumption , emissions level, total accidents cost • LAND USE residential and workplace location

19. WP4 Modelling – (im)possibilities of modelling scenarios Policies simulation and models capabilities Simulation capabilities YES INDIRECT NO

20. WP4 Modelling – (im)possibilities of modelling scenarios Policies simulation and models capabilities: feasible measures

21. WP4 Modelling – (im)possibilities of modelling scenarios Policies simulation and models capabilities ASTRA POLES Simulation capability Vehicle technology measures DIRECT INDIRECT SASI Regional models

22. WP4 Modelling – (im)possibilities of modelling scenarios Policies simulation and models capabilities ASTRA POLES Simulation capability Infrastructuralmeasures DIRECT INDIRECT SASI Regional models

23. WP4 Modelling – (im)possibilities of modelling scenarios Policies simulation and models capabilities ASTRA POLES Simulation capability Planning measures DIRECT INDIRECT SASI Regional models

24. WP4 Modelling – (im)possibilities of modelling scenarios Policies simulation and models capabilities ASTRA POLES Simulation capability Pricing measures DIRECT INDIRECT SASI Regional models

25. WP4 Modelling – (im)possibilities of modelling scenarios Example of implementation of technological measures Global results Global results ASTRA POLES 2) Fleet evolution 1) Implementation of technological measure 3) Averaged emissions factors SASI Regional models Local results Local results

26. WP4 Modelling – Workplan Timetable