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Estimating CO 2 Emissions Reduction by example

Estimating CO 2 Emissions Reduction by example. June 19, 2003 CCIC Conference Room Manila Observatory. May Antoniette Ajero Climate Change Information Center. CO 2 Emissions (tons CO 2 ). Power Generation (MWh). Emission Factor (Tons CO 2 /MWh). GHG. A. X. EF. =. X. =. TJ

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Estimating CO 2 Emissions Reduction by example

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  1. Estimating CO2 Emissions Reduction by example June 19, 2003 CCIC Conference Room Manila Observatory May Antoniette Ajero Climate Change Information Center

  2. CO2 Emissions (tons CO2) Power Generation (MWh) Emission Factor (Tons CO2/MWh) GHG A X EF = X = TJ vol unit of fuel kgC TJ Emission Factor (Tons CO2/kWh) X X X 1 ton C 1 kgC X 44g/moleCO2 12g/moleC Plant based - actual data conversion factors Carbon emission factor, per fuel type - IPCC Net calorific value, country specific, per fuel type - IPCC On Emissions from Power Plants: vol fuel consumed Mwh output =

  3. CO2 Emissions (tons CO2) Power Generation (MWh) Emission Factor (Tons CO2/MWh) X = Plant Capacity (%) 8760 hours in a year Installed Capacity (MW) Power Generation (MWh) = X X t Op * Pt*CEFt Total CO2 Emissions (tons CO2) = Total electricity generation output of grid (MWh) Percentage contribution to grid (%) Emission factor for specific technology and or fuel type(tons CO2/MWh) On Emissions from Power Plants : On Emissions from a Power Grid :

  4. = Op* CEFwt.ave t Pt*CEFt Op = t Op * Pt*CEFt Total CO2 Emissions = On Emissions from a Power Grid :

  5. = Op* CEFwt.ave Total CO2 Emissions

  6. 1 GWh = 1000 MWh = 1,000,000 kWh 1 kiloton = 1000 tons = 1,000,000 kg 1 ton = 1000 kg = 1,000,000 g 1000 tons = 1 kiloton = 1 Gigagram Kilo = 103 Mega = 106 Giga = 109 Conversion Factors

  7. Example 1: Aquarius Hydroelectric Project • Description of the project activity: • Host country: Brazil • generate electricity using hydroelectric resources to sell to the power grid. • Hydroelectric power with 4.2 MW installed capacity = 25,755 MWh/year • categorized as I-D (Renewable Energy Project - renewable electricity for a grid) • baseline methodology - baseline is average of “operating margin” and “build margin” • crediting period is 7 years - renewable twice

  8. Aquarius Hydroelectric Project

  9. Aquarius Hydroelectric Project

  10. Aquarius Hydroelectric Project Step 1. Determine expected annual electricityproduction of project Step 2. Determine expected project emissions Step 3. Determine baseline emissions i) determine baseline methodology ii) compute for emission factors iii) compute for baseline emissions Step 4. Determine annual emissions reduction

  11. Annual Plant Electricity Output (MWh/yr) Installed Plant Capacity (MW) Plant Capacity Factor (%) Hours year = X X 8760Hours year = 4.2 MW 70% X X Annual Plant Electricity Output 25,755 MWh/year = Step 1. Determine expected annual electricity production of project Plant Capacity Factor (%) X • how much electricity the hydropower project will deliver annually • how much amount of electricity will be displaced from the grid by the hydropower

  12. Annual CO2 Emissions (tons CO2) Power Generation (MWh/year) Emission Factor (Tons CO2/MWh) X = Annual CO2 Emissions (tons CO2) = Zero project emissions Step 2. Determine expected project emissions 25,755 MWh/year Zero (0) = X

  13. Step 3. Determine baseline emissions i) determine baseline methodology “approximate operating margin”- grid mix of all generating sources serving the system, excluding hydro, geothermal, wind, low-cost biomass, nuclear and solar generation “build margin”- grid mix of recent capacity additions (newly installed plants) defined as lower of most recent 20% of plants built or the 5 most recently built plants EFbase = (EFoperating + EFbuild)/2 *Baseline and Monitoring Methods Workshop on July 17

  14. Hydro Geothermal Diesel GRID Solar Coal Nat Gas Wind Priority Source Dispatched to Grid Back Sources most likely to be displaced by Project

  15. ii) compute for emission factors Specific consumption Calorific value Carbon EF EF = X X Conversion factors X * page 30 of Aquarius PDD (Liter/MWh) - errata

  16. ii) compute for emission factors • operating margin - • mix composed of diesel-fueled (199.3 GWh) and natural gas-fueled (420.5GWh) power plants • diesel EF = 1.190 kg CO2/kWh (32.16%) • nat gas EF = 0.690 kgCO2/kWh (67.84%) • weighted EF = 0.851 kgCO2/kWh • build margin • mix composed of natural gas-fueled (718.32 GWh) and hydroelectric (883.008GWh) power plants • nat gas EF = 0.690 kgCO2/kWh (44.85%) • hydro EF = 0 kgCO2/kWh (55.15%) • weighted EF = 0.310 kgCO2/kWh * Aquarius PDD typographical error - 883,008GWh

  17. 0.580 kgCO2/kWh 25,755 MWh = X 1000kWh 1MWh 1tonCO2 1000kgCO2 X X Annual CO2 Emissions (tons CO2) = 14,942 tons CO2 ii) compute for emission factors EFbase = (EFoperating + EFbuild)/2 = (0.851 + 0.310)/2 EFbase = 0.580 kgCO2/kWh iii) compute for baseline emissions (annual) Annual CO2 Emissions (tons CO2)

  18. Step 4. Determine annual emissions reduction Eredn = Ebase - Eproject =14, 942 tons CO2 - 0 = 14,942 tons CO2

  19. Example 2: Burgos Wind Farm Project • Description of the project activity: • Host country: Philippines (Burgos, Ilocos Norte) • generate electricity using wind energy to sell to the Luzon power grid. • First commercial wind power with approximately 120 MW total capacity* • divided into different phases - Phase 1 = 42MW installed capacity = 107GWh/year • categorized as I-D (Renewable Energy Project - renewable electricity for a grid) * as per Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) feasibility study

  20. Example 2: Burgos Wind Farm Project • Assumption: • crediting period: 10 years • start of crediting period: 2004 • baseline methodology: fossil fuel mix of 2000 will be the same mix as crediting period • constant annual emissions reduction for the entire crediting period • no leakages considered, no other direct or indirect emissions covered

  21. Annual Plant Electricity Output (MWh/yr) Installed Plant Capacity (MW) Plant Capacity Factor (%) Hours year = X X Power Generation (MWh/year) Annual CO2 Emissions (tons CO2) Emission Factor (Tons CO2/MWh) X = 107,000 GWh/year Zero (0) = X Annual CO2 Emissions (tons CO2) Zero Project Emissions = Step 1. Determine expected annual electricity production of project = (42 MW) x (29%) x (8760hours/year) = 107 GWh/year Step 2. Determine expected project emissions

  22. Step 3. Determine baseline emissions i) determine baseline methodology a) operating margin and build margin average b) recent capacity additions c) power generation mix of 2000 d) projected energy mix ii) compute for emission factors - collect data on fuel consumption and power generation per fuel type to get specific consumption (volume consumed/kWh generated) • Assumption: • table of emission factors on next page:

  23. ii) compute for emission factors Greenhouse Gases from Local Communities: An Inventory Manual - Page 14 Source: DOE

  24. Final Weighted Emission Factor = 0.6066 kgCO2/kWh

  25. 0.6066 kgCO2/kWh 107,000 MWh = X 1000kWh 1MWh 1tonCO2 1000kgCO2 X X iii) compute for baseline emissions (annual) Annual CO2 Emissions (tons CO2) = 64,906 tonsCO2 Step 4. Determine annual emissions reduction Eredn = Ebase - Eproject =64,906 tons CO2 - 0 Eredn =64,906 tons CO2

  26. If at $3 per ton CO2 $1, 947, 180

  27. Exercise: Wigton Wind Farm Project • Description of the project activity: • Host country: Jamaica • generate electricity using wind energy to sell to the grid. • First commercial wind power with approximately 20.7 MW capacity = 62.97Million kWh • categorized as I-D (Renewable Energy Project - renewable electricity for a grid) • baseline methodology - “Recent Additions to the Grid (10 years)” • crediting period - 10 years

  28. Exercise: Wigton Wind Farm Project

  29. Exercise: Wigton Wind Farm Project

  30. Exercise: Wigton Wind Farm Project Steps in computing for the emissions reduction: 1. Compute for the project activity emission. 2. Compute for the weighted carbon emission factor for baseline scenario. 3. Compute for the baseline emission. 4. Compute for the annual emissions reduction and the cumulative emission reduction for the crediting period. 5. Estimate total sales of CERs based on US$3 per ton of CO2 for the entire crediting period.

  31. Annual Plant Electricity Output (MWh/yr) Installed Plant Capacity (MW) Plant Capacity Factor (%) Hours year = X X Power Generation (MWh/year) Annual CO2 Emissions (tons CO2) Emission Factor (Tons CO2/MWh) X = Annual CO2 Emissions (tons CO2) Zero Project Emissions = Exercise: Wigton Wind Farm Project 1. Compute for the project activity emission. = 20.7 MW 34.7% 8760 X X = 62.97GWh = 62,970MWh Zero (0) = 62,970MWh X

  32. 2. Compute for the weighted carbon emission factor for baseline scenario. 3. Compute for the baseline emission. 4. Compute for the annual emissions reduction and the cumulative emission reduction for the crediting period. 5. Estimate total sales of CERs based on US$3 per ton of CO2 for the entire crediting period.

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