1 / 15

Vulnerability and Adaptation in Agriculture: the Thai’s Experiences

Vulnerability and Adaptation in Agriculture: the Thai’s Experiences. The study Approach Results Lessons learned and Potential improvement Implication. Approach. Controlled climate. GHG 1% climate. Crop growth models. Yields (controlled climate). Yields (GHG 1% climate).

ivana-goodwin
Download Presentation

Vulnerability and Adaptation in Agriculture: the Thai’s Experiences

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Vulnerability and Adaptation in Agriculture: the Thai’s Experiences • The study • Approach • Results • Lessons learned and Potential improvement • Implication

  2. Approach Controlled climate GHG 1% climate Crop growth models Yields (controlled climate) Yields (GHG 1% climate) Difference in yields

  3. Climate Scenarios Using the simulation of the GCMs Transient (CO2 increases 1% per year) Various GCMs CCCMA ECHAM CSIRO HADLEY

  4. From Global to Local • Direct Interpolation • Use 30 years monthly average to reduce short term climate variation • 1990s(1960-89) • 2020s(2010-2039) • 2050s (2040-2069) • 2080s(2070-2099) • Develop daily climate scenarios for specific locations

  5. Crops: Models and Areas • Crop models • CERES MAIZE, CERES RICE • Crops and areas • Fragrant Rice in two provinces • Maize in two provinces

  6. Scenarios • Four climate inputs from different GCMs • Two crops x two areas • With and without fertilizer • With and without C effects on crop • Four intervals ( 1990s, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s)

  7. Some Results

  8. Maize, Nakhonsawan, no fertilizer

  9. Maize, Nakhonrachasima, no fertilizer

  10. Rice, Roi-et, no fertilizer

  11. Rice, Surin, no fertilizer

  12. Major observations • Results from different GCMs vary quite a lot • Yields tend to drop overtime • Yields of maize are not much different between the two provinces, the reverse is true for rice • There are some positive carbon effects on yield

  13. Lessons learned • High uncertainty of climate models • Crop models need to be improved • Impacts could vary substantially between areas • Vulnerability analysis is not sufficient to be used for adaptation study • Local climate data are limited

  14. How to improve • Reduce uncertainty of climate models • develop regional or sub-regional models • improve downscaling methods • Improve crop growth models • Cover the areas and crops adequately • Develop other approaches

  15. Implications • Research and development on vulnerability is urgently needed • Soft technology transfer • Indigenous capacity building • Sub-regional network is important to facilitate the technology development and capacity building • A need for strong participation in international research and development on vulnerability • Existing mechanisms make vulnerability and adaptation relatively much behind others

More Related