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DISASTER SCENARIOS

DISASTER SCENARIOS. A PRIMER OF KNOWLEDGE THAT CAN MULTIPLY AND SPILL OVER FOR THE BENEFIT OF MILLIONS . Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA. DISASTER SCENARIOS FOR SEVERE WINDSTORMS . HURRICANES, TYPHOONS, AND CYCLONES .

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DISASTER SCENARIOS

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  1. DISASTER SCENARIOS A PRIMER OF KNOWLEDGE THAT CAN MULTIPLY AND SPILL OVER FOR THE BENEFIT OF MILLIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

  2. DISASTER SCENARIOS FOR SEVERE WINDSTORMS HURRICANES, TYPHOONS, AND CYCLONES

  3. SEVERE WINDSTORMS: HURRICANES • In the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Eastern Pacific areas cyclonic tropical storms with well-formed central “eyes” and with wind speeds above 74 mph are referred to as HURRICANES.

  4. SEVERE WINDSTORMS: TYPHOONS • The exact same phenomenon in the Western Pacific Ocean region is called a TYPHOON.

  5. Physics Of A Typhoon

  6. SEVERE WINDSTORMS: CYCLONES • The exact same phenomenon in the Indian Ocean region is called a CYCLONE.

  7. SEVERE WINDSTORMS: TYPHOONS OR CYCLONES • People in South East Asia occasionally refer to severe windstorms as either TYPHOONS or CYCLONES.

  8. SEVERE WINDSTORMS: NOR’EASTERS • People on the USA’s and Canada’s eastern seaboard and Northern Europe occasionally experience severe windstorms known as NOR’EASTERS.

  9. DEVELOPING A REALISTIC DISASTER SCENARIO FOR A COMMUNITY FACING SEVERE WINDSTORMS

  10. RISK ASSESSMENT • VULNERABILITY • EXPOSURE • EVENT • COST • BENEFIT SEVERE WIND-STORMS EXPECTED LOSS POLICY ADOPTION • CONSEQUENCES POLICY ASSESSMENT A POLICY FRAMEWORK

  11. THE KEYS: 1) KNOW YOUR REGION’S METEOROLOGICAL HISTORY,2) KNOW YOUR COMMUNITY

  12. 1325 HURRICANE PATHS: 1851-2004 • EACH HURRICANE HAS PREDICTABLE PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT CAN BE USED TO DEVELOP DISASTER SCENARIOS WITHIN A REALISTIC POLICY FRAMEWORK.

  13. HURRICANE BILL’S PATH: AUGUST 12-24, 2009 • THE PATH IS A STARTING POINT FOR ANY DISASTER SCENARIO FOR HURRICANES OR TYPHOONS.

  14. TYPHOON MORAKOT’S PATH: AUGUST 3-10, 2009 • THE STATE- OF- PREPAREDNESSOF COMMUN-ITIES LOCATED IN THE LAND-FALL AREA DEFINES THE POSSIBILITY OF DISASTER.

  15. FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS • Very low pressure in the “eye” (increases the height of storm surge and likelihood that wind will lift roofs off buildings and pop out windows after landfall)

  16. FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS • Low vertical wind shear along the path of the storm (maintains storm’s cohesiveness and rotation)

  17. FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS • A long path passing through warm water and a slow rate of travel (increases the likelihood that the storm will grow in strength and become a RAINMAKER after landfall)

  18. FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS • Wind field and rain bands extending 500 km or more from the “eye” (increases area of potential wind damage, flooding, landslides, and need for evacuation).

  19. HURRICANE DEAN: PREPARING FOR EVACUATION, AUGUST 19, 2007

  20. FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS • Landfall in rain-saturated areas having steep slopes (increases likelihood of landslides (mudflows))

  21. TYPHOON MORAKOT: TAIWAN

  22. FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS • Landfall in populated areas that are unprepared: • increases the likelihood of inadequate warning, inadequate evacuation, inadequate wind engineering (e.g., roof systems, “safe rooms”), inadequate safe havens, and inadequate INSURANCE.

  23. RISK ASSESSMENT FOR HURRICANES, TYPHOONS, AND CYCLONES

  24. A RISK ASSESSMENT • A risk assessment involves the probabilistic integration of: • The hazard (e.g., severe windstorms) and their potential disaster agents (winds, storm surge, etc) that are directly related to the location of the community and the path/size of the storm.

  25. HAZARDS EXPOSURE VULNERABILITY LOCATION ELEMENTS OF A SCENARIO RISK

  26. HAZARDS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) • WIND FIELD (COUNTER CLOCKWISE OR CLOCKWISE DIRECTION; CAT 1 (55 mph) TO CAT 5 (155 mph or greater) • STORM SURGE • RAIN BANDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION • LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS) • COSTAL EROSION • POSSIBILILITY OF TORNADOES

  27. An element’s vulnerability (fragility) is the result of a community’s actions or nature’s actions that change the destructiveness of the storm

  28. MANKIND’S CONTRIBUTIONAn element’s vulnerability (fragility) is the result of flaws that enter during the planning, siting, design, and construction of a community’s buildings and infrastructure.

  29. TYPHOON MORAKOT: TAIWAN

  30. TYPHOON MORAKOT: TAIWAN

  31. MANKIND’S ACTIONS THAT INCREASE VULNERABILITY • Urban development or industrial development along coastlines prone to severe windstorms that generate storm surges, high-velocity wind, and heavy precipitation.

  32. TYPHOON MORAKOT: CHINA

  33. MANKIND’S ACTIONS THAT INCREASE VULNERABILITY • A community locating its dwellings, schools, hospitals, etc., and infrastructure in areas susceptible to storm surge, flooding, and high winds.

  34. TYPHOON MORAKOT: TAIWAN

  35. TYPHOON MORAKOT: TAIWAN

  36. TYPHOON MORAKOT: CHINA

  37. NATURE’S CONTRIBUTIONS THAT INCREASE VULNERABILITY • Warm ocean water (creates the low pressure zone for the “eye” of the storm) • Warm ocean water along the path of the storm (keeps the storm energized and increases the wind field strength)

  38. NATURES CONTRIBUTIONS THAT INCREASE VULNERABILITY • Low vertical wind shear (keeps the storm organized) • Stalled weather systems (prolongs rain fall, especially after landfall).

  39. CAUSES OF DAMAGE WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS STORM SURGE SEVERE WINDSTORMS IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN “DISASTER LABORATORIES” SITING PROBLEMS FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES

  40. DISASTER RISK REDUCTION

  41. Storm Hazards: • Wind pressure • Surge • Rain • Flood • Waves • Salt water • Missiles • Tornadoes • SEVERE WINDSTORMS • INVENTORY • VULNERABILITY • LOCATION • PREVENTION/MITIGATION • PREPAREDNESS • EMERGENCY RESPONSE • RECOVERY and • RECONSTRUCTION • EDUCATIONAL SURGES RISK ASSESSMENT POLICY OPTIONS ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK SEVERE WINDSTORM RISK REDUCTION Wind profile DATA BASES AND INFORMATION Gradient Wind Ocean COMMUNITY

  42. REAL TIME FORECASTS OF PATH AND PHYSICAL EFFECTS MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DOPPLER RADAR, WIND SPEEDS; PRESSURE, INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION) METEOROLOGICAL HISTORIES WIND ENGINEERING STORM SURGE MAPS STORM CHASER PLANES/DRONES WARNING SYSTEMS RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING) EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR SEVERE WINDSTORMS

  43. SAVING LIVES WIND ENGINEERING “SAFE ROOMS” EVACUATION

  44. TYPHOON MORAKOT: TAIWAN

  45. RISK ASSESSMENT • VULNERABILITY • EXPOSURE • EVENT • COST • BENEFIT SEVERE WIND STORMS EXPECTED LOSS POLICY ADOPTION • CONSEQUENCES POLICY ASSESSMENT TOWARDS DISASTER RISK REDUCTION FOR SEVERE WINDSTORMS

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