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Climate Change and Conservation Planning

Climate Change and Conservation Planning. Allison Aldous & Ken Popper, TNC Oregon Patrick Gonzalez, TNC Global Climate Change Initiative. © Chris Carvalho. Applying climate change science. Models Uncertainty Spatial scale. Approach: Adapt CAP framework. Selecting conservation targets

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Climate Change and Conservation Planning

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  1. Climate Change and Conservation Planning Allison Aldous & Ken Popper, TNC Oregon Patrick Gonzalez, TNC Global Climate Change Initiative © Chris Carvalho

  2. Applying climate change science Models Uncertainty Spatial scale

  3. Approach: Adapt CAP framework • Selecting conservation targets • Defining attributes & indicators of viability • How will current threats be altered by CC? • What novel threats will arise due to CC? • What strategies can address current and novel threats?

  4. Targets and Conservation Area Where is the species or ecosystem in relation to its distribution? Think about connectivity • What environmental gradients affect it? • b. How well connected is suitable habitat across the landscape? • c. How does the degree of connectivity compare to the dispersal capabilities of the targets?

  5. KEAs and Threats Consider existing and novel threats • How will novel CC threats affect each ecological attribute of the species or ecosystem in question? • 2. How will CC threats exacerbate existing threats? • 3. Focus on CC threats that are relatively well-established

  6. Examples NOVEL THREAT EXISTING THREAT Wetland complex Estuarine ecosystem Hydrologic regime: stream flow from melting snowpack Extent and distribution of salt marsh Decline in stream flow Loss of salt marsh Reduced snowpack; decreased late season base flows Agricultural water withdrawals, dams & diversions Sea level rise

  7. Strategies Threat-based: Energy, transportation, cap&trade Target-based: enhance resilience Photo credit: An Inconvenient Truth, © 2006, Paramount Pictures

  8. Objectives and Strategies CC strategies can be proactive • Focus on species and ecosystems in the middle of their range • Consider strategies to specifically address CC threats • Elevate strategies that address CC threats in addition to existing threats • Elevate strategies that address CC threats to multiple targets • MONITOR strategy effectiveness • Communicate impacts of climate change to partners and colleagues

  9. Impact of climate change: Increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations Strategy: Forest conservation and restoration

  10. Impact of climate change: Species ranges shift altitudinally and latitudinally Strategy: Identify climate change refugia and concentrate management effort and new acquisitions on portfolio sites in refugia

  11. Impact of climate change: Habitat fragmentation prevents dispersal to new habitats Strategy: Establish corridors to link current habitat to predicted new habitats

  12. Impact of climate change: Sea level rise Strategy: Vegetate coastal marshes as sea level rises and marshes shift inland

  13. Impact of climate change: Decreased late season baseflow Strategy: Restore and protect key freshwater wetlands, including riparian areas, to store water for late season flows

  14. Conclusions • Look at Conservation Planning through a Climate Change lens. • Anticipate the impacts of climate change on portfolio species and ecosystems. • Implement strategies to mitigate those impacts and increase target resilience

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