1 / 41

Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California

Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California. Science Department, Audubon California Presented by Bill Monahan. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California. Declining Species : California’s WatchList. Declining Species : Common Birds in Decline.

violet
Download Presentation

Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Science Department, Audubon California Presented by Bill Monahan

  2. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Declining Species: California’s WatchList Declining Species: Common Birds in Decline

  3. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Climate Change

  4. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California • Climate in California • Rich record of • weather stations has • allowed climatologists • to model climate for • the entire state • We have this • information now, in the • past, and future

  5. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Change in Max Temperature 1960-2006 Change in Min Temperature 1960-2006

  6. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California • Birds in California • Christmas Bird Count (CBC) • Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) Volunteer Science

  7. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California How do we forecast bird distributions? How do we forecast land-based conservation? How do we translate forecasting into action?

  8. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California • How do we forecast bird distributions? • How do we forecast land-based conservation? • How do we translate forecasting into action? • Answer: Flexible GIS toolkit with: • Lots of bird data • Lots of climate data • Expert knowledge • A network of dedicated people

  9. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California • Outline • Methods • Species-climate modeling methods • Simple example of model • Results • How models relate to current distribution • Ability of models to “forecast” past changes in distribution • Scalability: Land-based conservation • Emerging distributional responses to future climate change • Conclusions & Next Steps

  10. Geographic Information System Species Distribution Model Predictive Distribution Map Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Methods: Overview of species distribution modeling

  11. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Methods • Starting data • Bird: CBC & BBS • Presence-only (1966-2006) • Climate: PRISM, 19 bioclimatic • variables (1966-2006) • Split into 4 decades matching • cool / warm phases of PDO

  12. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Methods: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation

  13. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Methods • Species models: • Maxent • Domain • Optimize • Approach: • Phase I: Historic validation • Phase II: Ensemble forecasting All using presence-only data

  14. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Methods Phase I: Historic validation

  15. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Methods Phase II: Ensemble forecasting Spp. A Maxent Domain Optimize A1B B1 A2 A1B B1 A2 A1B B1 A2 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20,M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 360 predictive distribution maps / species

  16. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Methods Phase II: Ensemble forecasting Spp. A Maxent Domain Optimize A1B B1 A2 A1B B1 A2 A1B B1 A2 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20,M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 81 predictive distribution maps / species

  17. Dusky Flycatcher ~ Summer ~ Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Simple example Model only

  18. Dusky Flycatcher ~ Summer ~ Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Simple example Model + Point localities

  19. Dusky Flycatcher ~ Summer ~ Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Simple example Model + California Wildlife Habitat Relations distribution map

  20. Dusky Flycatcher ~ Summer ~ Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Simple example Model + Point localities + California Wildlife Habitat Relations distribution map

  21. Dusky Flycatcher ~ Summer ~ Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Simple example Future probability of presence or absence: based on a doubling of atmospheric CO2

  22. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California How models relate to current distribution Yellow-billed Magpie Expert Habitat Climate

  23. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California How models relate to current distribution Black-billed Magpie Expert Habitat Climate

  24. Black Skimmer 1966 - 1987 1988 - 2006 Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Ability of models to “forecast” past changes in distribution

  25. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California • Scalability: Land-based Conservation • Tehachapi Mountains • Important Bird Area • Located at the southern • end of the Coastal • California Bird • Conservation Region

  26. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California • Major threats: Urban development • Need to preserve undeveloped woodlands on ridges Tehachapi Mountains

  27. Tehachapi Mountains Olive-sided Flycatcher ~ Summer ~ Olive-sided Flycatcher Breeds in mixed-conifer forests found on ridge

  28. Tehachapi Mountains Olive-sided Flycatcher ~ Summer ~ Olive-sided Flycatcher Climate-model correctly predicts OSFL on the ridge

  29. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Emerging distributional responses to future climate change A few examples…

  30. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California California Quail

  31. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Tricolored Blackbird

  32. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Acorn Woodpecker

  33. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California California Gnatcatcher

  34. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Yellow-billed Magpie

  35. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Juniper Titmouse

  36. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Dusky Flycatcher

  37. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Olive-sided Flycatcher

  38. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California House Sparrow

  39. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California European Starling

  40. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California • Breeding Birds • 180 terrestrial • species in CA • Does not consider • new arrivals

  41. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California • Conclusions & Next Steps • Complete future scenarios • Parse results by conservation unit • Parse results by species groups • Make results archive freely available online Thanks to -- Citizen Scientists Dan Niven & Greg Butcher Packard Foundation

More Related