Developing viability criteria for threatened Puget Sound steelhead

1. interim ^ Developing viability criteria for threatened Puget Sound steelhead Jeff Hard and Jim Myers (for the PSSTRT) Conservation Biology Division NMFS Northwest Fisheries Science Center Seattle, WA 98112 West Coast Steelhead Management Meeting Redmond, OR 9-11 March 2010

2. Outline • Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS • Recent changes • Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives • The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria • Identifying DIPs & MPGs • Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS • Run type diversity; residency and anadromy • Outlook

3. Puget Sound steelhead status reviews • Originally reviewed in 1996; ESA listing not warranted • 2nd status review in response to September 2004 petition completed June 2007 • DPS listed as threatened under ESA • Several populations continue steep declines despite harvest restrictions • Low productivity; poor FW/marine habitat conditions; use of non-local/ derived hatchery stocks; depressed LH diversity

4. Outline • Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS • Recent changes • Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives • The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria • Identifying DIPs & MPGs • Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS • Run type diversity; residency and anadromy • Outlook

5. Tolt SSH Green WSH East Puget Sound steelhead Abundance QET = 50 QET = 50 P(extinction) Years

6. General RoE patterns for Puget Sound steelhead • Some but not all northern PS populations are at relatively low risk of extinction • Populations in central and southern PS (except Green WSH) are generally smaller and most are declining • Hood Canal and SJF populations are small and at high risk, although some have been relatively stable • Status of many South Sound/Kitsap Peninsula independents and most SSH populations unclear • Of concern: Most central and SPS populations, many Hood Canal, all SJF populations

7. Outline • Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS • Recent changes • Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives • The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria • Identifying DIPs & MPGs • Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS • Run type diversity; residency and anadromy • Outlook

8. Technical Recovery Team (TRT) • When a population(s) under NOAA/USFWS jurisdiction is petitioned for listing under ESA, a Biological Review Team (BRT) of federal scientists determines its risk of extinction—the basis for a listing decision • Viable Salmonid Populations (VSP; McElhanyet al. 2000) criteria: • - Abundance, productivity, spatial structure, diversity • A TRT develops biological recovery (“viability”) criteria to guide recovery planning for listed unit • A TRT has two primary charges: • - Identify demographically independent populations (DIPs) and major population groups (MPGs) within the ESU/DPS • - Develop viability criteria for these units and the ESU/DPS

9. Outline • Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS • Recent changes • Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives • The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria • Identifying DIPs & MPGs • Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS • Run type diversity; residency and anadromy • Outlook

10. DIPs < MPGs < DPS Data are usually limiting, and TRTs have had to rely on indirect measures to identify DIPs and MPGs TRTs have typically used simple decision rules to evaluate these factors e.g., spawning populations separated by some amount e.g., elevation/gradient/hydrograph differs substantially between areas Assessment of historical populations a key element of identifying DIPs and MPGs Demographically Independent Populations & Major Population Groups

11. Tier 1 Historical presence Historical abundance Demographic independence Tier 2 (proxies) Recent abundance Intrinsic potential or other habitat based estimate of potential productivity Basin size/drainage area Geographic isolation Genetic distance Barriers physical seasonal Ecological separation Temporal isolation Tier 3 (species surrogates) Genetic distance Geographic isolation DIP checklist

12. Neighbor-joining tree C-S-E distances 13 μsat loci Includes 2008 and 2009 collections Strait of Juan de Fuca West Hood Canal South/Central Sound North Sound East Hood Canal

13. Historical WDF steelhead catch data

14. Dendrogram of Gower SI of habitat characteristics High precip, snow pack (and SSH) Wider, more spawn-able area Rain dominated, generally smaller SJF

16. How can we combine these data in a way that helps to identify DIPs? Population dynamics (PD.1) Recent demographic independence (PD) W W Migration rates (PD.2) Adult number, etc. (PD.1.A...) Ecological distinctiveness (ED) W W Life history traits (EP.1) Biological distinctiveness (BD) Tag recoveries, etc. (PD.2.A...) W Ecophenotypic differences (EP) Genetic distinctiveness (GD) Population independence (IP) W W W Habitat characteristics (EP.2) Geographic isolation (GI) Run timing, etc. (EP.1.A...) W (from a concept by K. Currens, NWIFC) Genetic distance, etc. (GD.1.A...) W W Geographic distance, etc. (GI.1.A...) Stream gradient, etc. (EP.2.A...)

17. Why a Decision Support System (DSS) framework? • “Fuzzy logic” system systematically incorporates degree of uncertainty into decision making • Almost any relevant criterion can be considered • Employs truth membership functions to evaluate the degree to which propositions are true • Uses logical operators (e.g., “AND”, “UNION”, “MEDIAN”, “AVERAGE”) and weighting factors to combine criteria • Provides a transparent, systematic, and repeatable framework to reach decisions supported by the available data

18. A truth membership function “Population will persist = TRUE” “I am completely uncertain whether the population will persist” False Uncertain True Truth value for proposition 1-P(extinction) “Population will persist = FALSE”

19. Some DSS DIP model inputs • Historic populations identified from WDF steelhead catch statistics (1946-1970) and habitat-based intrinsic potential estimates • Minimum historic size (e.g., > 500 natural spawners/gen) • Minimum suitable habitat (e.g., > 20K m2 IP habitat) • Recent demographic data estimated from spawner escapements and selected age structure data (1970s-present) • Geographic distances, hydrographic data, and habitat features estimated from GIS data layers • Genetic distances based on pairwise FSTvalues from 13 microsatellite loci

20. Matrix of potential PS steelhead DIPs(Central/South Puget Sound WSH) DRAFT

21. Outline • Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS • Recent changes • Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives • The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria • Identifying DIPs & MPGs • Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS • Run type diversity; residency and anadromy • Outlook

22. Puget Sound Chinook salmon ESU viability: All MPGs must be viable MPG viability 2-4 viable populations 1 viable population from each major genetic and life-history group. Suggested population size range Distribution of spawning aggregations Phenotypic and genotypic variation at population level Catastrophe ESU: Overall risk with distribution of pops and life histories in each MPG Pop: % of affected by given catastrophe Historical Abundance SimSam Habitat-based PVA (EDT)

23. DSS viability criteria: • population • stratum/MPG • entire ESU/DPS Abundance Hatchery influence PF PP PD PS Adult dist’n Juvenile dist’n

24. Some DSS viability model inputs • Abundance and productivity estimated from spawner escapements and available age structure data (1940s-present) • Risk of reaching QET estimated with simple PVA models • Analysis limited to winter-run fish (WSH) • So far, analysis limited to anadromous fish • For future: incorporate iteroparity and relative abundance of resident fish as VSP factors

25. DSS applied to PS steelhead viability: MPG and DPS levels Persistence Functionality Sustainability Sustainability Persistence Diversity DRAFT …………..MPG level………….. …..DPS level…..

26. Outline • Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS • Recent changes • Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives • The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria • Identifying DIPs & MPGs • Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS • Run type diversity; residency and anadromy • Outlook

27. VSP: DiversitySummer-run life history • Historically at least 12 wild SSH populations existed in DPS • In 2002 SaSI, 16 SSH populations were identified as extant • Most of “unknown” status; only 2 considered “healthy” (Tolt, SF Skykomish [non-native]) • 7 are monitored: Canyon Cr., Skagit, Snohomish, Tolt, Stillaguamish, Green, Elwha • Estimates of escapement available for only Tolt River SSH in northern Puget Sound

28. VSP: Diversityresidency & anadromy Proportion smolts from resident spawners Marine survival Smolts produced by resident spawners may be critical in supporting steelhead productivity during periods of low marine survival

29. Outline • Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS • Recent changes • Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives • The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria • Identifying DIPs & MPGs • Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS • Run type diversity; residency and anadromy • Outlook

30. Outlook • TRT to identify draft viability criteria for Puget Sound steelhead in 2010 • NOAA status review update due in 2010 • Recovery planning is underway • Additional analyses planned: • Genetic samples • Finer-scale intrinsic potential estimates • Archived abundance and life history data • Puget Sound Chinook salmon gap analysis

31. FIN Extra slides after this point

32. Steelhead IP habitat rating metrics Puget Sound Interior Columbia (for comparison)

33. Est. mean ‘historic’ wild run size vs unblocked stream length

34. Spawner capacity estimates Assuming: 7.17 parr/100 m2 0.0265 spnrs/parr (Gibbons et al. 1985)