UNIT 5: Campaigns and Elections

1. UNIT 5: Campaigns and Elections READINGS: Norton CH 7 and Dunleavy CH 5

2. Guiding Questions • How does the UK elect national political officials? • How are regional officials elected? • What are the pros and cons to each system? • What are the arguments in favor of electoral reform? In opposition to reform? • What is the likelihood of electoral reform?

3. British Electoral Politics • Prior to the 1970’s, British citizens voted solely for Parliament and some local councilors. • Today, voters cast ballots for national MP’s, MEP’S, local councilors, devolved institutions, etc. • While the national parliament is dominated by “two and a half” parties, many parties win representation to local, regional, and/or European institutions. • The electoral system is a key variable in explaining the perseverance of the two party system at the national level and a multiparty system at other levels.

4. British Electoral Politics • Seven different electoral systems exist for selecting candidates within the UK. • SMD/FPTP: Parliament and local councils in England and Wales. • Mixed (additional member): Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly. • PR (Multimember list): most British members to the European Parliament. • PR (Single Transferable Vote): Northern Irish Assembly. • Debate over electoral system rages; especially amongst the Liberal Democrats and smaller parties.

5. Majoritarian/Plurality Systems • Referred to as single member district (SMD) or “first past the post” • A single candidate is elected in each electoral district (district magnitude =1). • Whoever receives the most votes, wins. • Outcomes generally manufacture a majority for the largest parties. • Gerrymandering can reduce electoral turnover. • Denies representation to smaller parties to provide stability in coalition creation.

6. 2005 General Election* • PARTY: Vote/Seats • Labour: 35.2% (355/57%) • Conservative: 32.4% (198/32%) • Liberal Democrats: 22% (62/10%) • Others: 5.3% (9/1%) • SWING TO CONSERVATIVES: 3%

7. Complaints about SMD • Labour vote share greatly over-represented in seat share. • Liberal Democrats under-represented. • Distortion is magnified as support for smaller parties increases. • System increases regional disproportionality. • Labour dominates Scotland, Conservatives in the South etc.

8. Proportional Systems • Various types of proportional representation systems exist. • Candidates are elected by party list in multi-member districts (district magnitude >1). • Parties typically determine the ranking of the candidates in each district. • Electoral threshold determines which parties gain access to the legislature. • Allows for more proportionate outcomes, but makes coalition formation more difficult.

9. What Could Have Been? Election 2005 under PR* • Votes/Seats • Labour: • 35.2% (239/38%) • Conservatives: • 32.4% (207/32.9) • Liberal Democrats: • 22% (140/22.2%) • Others: • 5% (34/5%) • Labour would lose seats; Liberal Dems, SNP, PC would have gained. • UKIP and Greens would have also won seats. • Conservatives seat share would have stayed about the same. • Result: Hung parliament.

10. Support for SMD • 1) System is easy to understand. • 2) System discriminates against smaller parties; arguably moderates politics. • 3) Election generally produces a single party majority government. • Labour and Conservatives favor SMD at the national level. • Although Labour has promised to hold a referendum on changing the electoral system. • Liberal Democrats favor electoral reform (i.e. adoption of PR)

11. Mixed: Additional Member System (AMS) • Voters cast two ballots: one for their constituency representative (SMD) and one for a party list (i.e. additional members) (PR). • PR component aims to make results more proportional. • Parties rank their candidates in order of who they would like to see elected. • Closed list; voters cannot change the ordering of candidates.

12. Elections 2007: Scotland • SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT: • MIXED ELECTORAL SYSTEM: SMD: 73 seats; PR: 8 regions  56 seats • SNP: 47 (21/26) • Labour: 46 (37/9) • Conservative: 17 (4/13) • Liberal Democrats: 16 (11/5) • Others: 3 (0/3) • SNP MINORITY GOVERNMENT

13. Elections 2007: Wales • WELSH ASSEMBLY: • MIXED ELECTORAL SYSTEM: SMD: 40 seats; PR 20 seats. • Labour 26 (24/2) • PC 15 (7/8) • Conservative 12 (5/7) • Liberal Democrats 6 (3/3) • Independent 1 (1/0) • Labour/PC coalition.

14. Evaluating AMS • PRO: • Provides for proportionality; gives representation to parties with dispersed support. • CON: • Parties control the candidate rankings. • Unlikely to produce one party majority governments.

15. PR: Multimember List • European Parliament: • Twelve constituencies elect between 3 and 12 members each. • Party seats doled on the basis of vote percentage. • Closed list • Parties rank candidates.

16. European Parliament Elections 2009 • Conservatives: 27.7%/25 seats • UKIP: 16.5%/13 • Labour: 15.7%/13 • Liberal Democrat: 13.7%/11 • Green: 8.6%/2 • BNP: 6.2%/2 • SNP: 2.1%/2 • PC: 1%/1 • PRO: Proportional outcome. • CON: Extreme parties win seats. • Low turnout (38%); usually bellwhether elections. • Next elections due in June 2014.

17. PR: Single Transferable Vote • Northern Ireland: 18 constituencies each elect 6 members. • Voters rank order their candidates on their ballot (i.e. 1,2,3 ..). • Candidates reaching “quota” are immediately elected. • Surplus votes of elected candidates are distributed to second preferred candidate. • Candidate in last place is eliminated; second preferences distributed. • Count continues until all seats are allocated. • PRO: Proportionality; no wasted votes. • CON: Complicated

18. Election 2007: Northern Ireland • SINGLE TRANSFERABLE VOTE (STV) • DUP (30%/36 seats) • SF (26%/28) • SDLP (16%/15) • UUP (15%/18) • Alliance (5%/7) • Others (8%/3) • POWER SHARING; GOVERNMENT BY GRAND COALITION

19. Election 2010 • Boundary changes give Labour a majority of 48 (down from 67). • Constituency boundaries still benefit Labour. • Urban areas (Labour) are declining in population; district maps are not updated frequently enough to reflect this. • Wales is over-represented • A swing of 1.5% to Conservatives would result in a hung parliament. • A swing of 7% would give the Conservatives a majority of 9. • Current polling suggests Labour is in 3rd place with the Conservatives and the Liberals battling for 1st. • If this holds, Labour is likely to have first shot at forming a new government.

20. Conclusions • While smaller parties win seats at the local, regional, or European levels they are shut out at Westminster. • Under SMD, it is possible for a governing party to: • 1) win a majority of seats without a majority of the vote. • 2) to come in second (or even third) place in vote total but win more seats than the party in first place • 3) to win a large seat majority with a relatively small plurality of the vote. • The British electorate has the makings of a multiparty system; electoral system acts as an “upper bound” on the number of parties (Cox 1997). • Likelihood of reform is remote. • Probably dependent on the strength of the Liberal vote.

21. Next Unit • Theme: Judiciary • Reading: Norton CH 12