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PAF 101

Module 5, Lecture 2. PAF 101. “We cannot ensure success, but we can deserve it.” - CATO. Agenda . Announcements Prince Chart briefing Next Class . Competition Points. Winners Losers. Competition Points as of 4/7/2014. Prince Analysis Steps. Identify Necessary Actions

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PAF 101

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  1. Module 5, Lecture 2 PAF101 “We cannot ensure success, but we can deserve it.” - CATO

  2. Agenda • Announcements • Prince Chart briefing • Next Class

  3. Competition Points Winners Losers Competition Points as of 4/7/2014

  4. Prince Analysis Steps Identify Necessary Actions Identify Key Players Estimate Position (-5 to +5) Estimate Power (1 to 5) Estimate Priority (1 to 5) Calculate Probabilities Formulate Prince Strategies Ex. 9.1 Ex. 9.2 Ex. 9.3 Ex. 9.4 Chapter 10

  5. Step 1: Describing the Policy to be Implemented • Be sure it is a policy and not a goal • Is it a federal, state or local policy? • Determine if it is a legislative, administrative or financial policy • Cannot be a judicial decision

  6. Step 2: Identify Players • Government Units in the United States: • 3,000 Counties • 19,000 municipalities • + 43,000 special districts • 65,000 total government units

  7. How To Select Players • Ask players, experts, and stakeholders. • Legislatures: They affect how a bill becomes a law at your geographic area • Aggregation problems with legislative bodies • If not legislative, must be administrative • Interest groups can be important especially for new policies • Watch out for dogs

  8. New York State • Divided into three branches: Executive, Legislative, Judicial • Governor Cuomo is the head of the Executive Branch. • State Agencies, like the Department of Education and Board of Regents are under the Executive Branch

  9. Onondaga County • County government is responsible for implementing and funding legislation enacted by the state and federal government • Different departments help to administrate the different duties of the county • Examples: Medicaid, Van Duyn Home and Hospital

  10. Legislative Branch • New York has a bi-cameral or two house legislature. • Which state is not bi-cameral? • Assembly is a 150 member body • Senate is a 62 member body

  11. Executive Branch • Governor Cuomo appoints the heads of the different state agencies • State agencies help put legislation into effect

  12. Helpful Websites • http://www.assembly.state.ny.us/ • http://www.senate.state.ny.us/senatehomepage.nsf/home?openform • http://www.ny.gov/ • http://www.ongov.net/ • http://www.ongov.net/legislature/

  13. Step 3:Estimating Issue Position • Empirical - quotes • Deductive Principles • Special Interest Players (4 or 5) • Politicians, Legislative Bodies, Government Officials and Some Big Interest Groups are not firm (0-2) • Budget cost predispose toward opposition

  14. Step 4: Estimating Power • Specific to Issues • Players with Veto Power: 4 or 5 • Legislatures • President, Governors, Mayors, etc. • Non-veto-players: 3, 2, or 1 • Sources of Power • Official Position • Money • Numbers (voters) • Expertise

  15. Step 5: Estimating Priority • Single issue player: high on relevant issue • Multiple issue player: low to moderate on most issues • Changes quickly in either direction • Frequency of statements are key

  16. Step 6: Calculating • Calculation 1: Issue position X Power X Priority=Prince Score • When Issue Position is 0, Power X Priority=(Prince Score) • Prince Scores in parenthesis are neutral scores • Calculation 2: Sum of all positive scores plus ½ of neutral scores • Calculation 3: Sum of all possible scores ignoring signs and parenthesis • Calculation 2/Calculation 3=Probability of Support

  17. Don’t Be Hopelessly Naïve • No matter how much you love your policy proposal, your forecast from the Prince System should be under 50% • WHY?

  18. Outside Speakers Announcement • Rev. Joe Coudriet and Ms. Gina Rivers • Ms. Rivers is the program director at Mercy Works • Rev. Coudriet is on the board of directors • Research these speakers and come to class on Wednesday prepared with questions to ask

  19. Next Class • Speaker – Ask them questions as if you were going to give them a grant • Community Service Form due 4/21 • Final Paper due 4/28 • No Exceptions!!!! http://classes.maxwell.syr.edu/paf101

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