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Chapter 7 Managing Emerging Technologies

Chapter 7 Managing Emerging Technologies. Paula Goulding. Chapter Outline. Importance of understanding emerging technologies Should organization be pioneer, leader, or follower Best time to adopt new technology How to introduce and appropriate apply new technology. Technology Life Cycle.

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Chapter 7 Managing Emerging Technologies

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  1. Chapter 7Managing Emerging Technologies Paula Goulding

  2. Chapter Outline • Importance of understanding emerging technologies • Should organization be pioneer, leader, or follower • Best time to adopt new technology • How to introduce and appropriate apply new technology

  3. Technology Life Cycle • Emerging Technology • Technology considered innovation • Still developing in capability/capacity • Pacing Technology • Technology is growing in acceptance • Key Technology • Provides competitive differential • Base Technology • Final phase of life cycle • Required technology

  4. Adoption of Technology Innovators (Technology enthusiasts) Willing to take higher risks Early Adopters (Visionaries) More visionary Early Majority (Pragmatists) Wait for more assurance for success of technology Late Majority (Conservatives) Must adopt technology to stay current Laggards (Skeptics) True skeptics; must adopt to stay in the market

  5. Early Market Look to be first with new paradigm Chasm Early market interest wanes Bowling Alley Niche-based adoption in advance of general marketplace Tornado Mass-market adoption Main Street Aftermarket development Flesh out potential End of Life Ignored and presumed in original model Enable new paradigms to come to market Moore’s Product Provider View of Technology Innovation

  6. Strategies for Technology Development

  7. Diffusion Curve

  8. Managing Change

  9. Learning S-Curve

  10. Three Strategic Postures • Shape the future • Play leadership role in establishing how industry operates • Adopt to the future • Recognizing and capturing opportunities in existing markets • Reserve right to play • Invest sufficiently to stay in the game • Avoid premature commitments

  11. Innovations Influence on Rate of Adoption • Relative Advantage • Considers degree innovation is perceived to be better • Compatibility • Higher level of compatibility with values and needs • Complexity • If difficult to learn, use, or implement will slow rate • Trialability • If easily experimental, will have better adoption chance • Observability • Degree to which innovation can be seen

  12. Increasing Returns of Adoption • Learning by using • Increase in benefits technology brings as adopters gain experience and knowledge • Positive network externalities • Greater the number of users, greater the benefit • Technological interrelatedness • Existence of compatible products that will increase larger base of adopters

  13. Characteristics of Early Adopters • Ability to amortize costs of learning • Ability to acquire any given amount of new knowledge with less effort • Higher level of initial knowledge about given technology

  14. Assimilation Gap Source: Fichman, Robert G., Kemerer, Chris F. The Illusory Diffusion of Innovation: An Examination of Assimilation Gaps, Information Systems Research, Vol. 10, No. 3, September 1999.

  15. Identifying Emerging Technologies • What Can Happen? • Keep abreast of technologies being developed • What Will Happen? • Engineering hurdles may exist • What Should Happen? • Consideration of social, political, and ethical issues • How Will It Happen? • R&D may envision product differently than actual application of it

  16. Inhibitors to Emerging Technology • Delayed participation • Sticking with the familiar • Reluctance to fully commit • Lack of persistence

  17. Human Resource Considerations • Availability of Talent • Best personnel to evaluate technology • Resource Allocation • Dedicated resources for evaluation and implementation • Motivation • Project failure/success is a possibility • Knowledge Management • Sharing of lessons learned • Utilize outside consultants • Protect new knowledge for competitive advantage

  18. Technology Scanning • Keeping abreast of developments in technology • Books and Periodicals • Formal Studies • Personal Contacts • Professional Organizations/Workshops/Conventions • R & D Organizations • State and Federal Departments • Universities • Vendors and Consultants • Early Adopters

  19. Factors for Successful Introduction • Identify problem and opportunity that technology addresses • Identify and empower a champion • Create cross-functional, dedicated, accountable team • Build supportive environment for introduction of technology • Identify and address associated risks • Manage the project

  20. Technology Assessment Process • Scoping • Establish scope/domain of technology search • Searching • Screen technologies • Search for signs/viability of emerging technology • Evaluating • Identify/prioritize technologies • Evaluate based on abilities, needs, competitive opportunities • Committing • How it should be pursued and implemented

  21. Sell business solution Identify value to organization Compare new to existing technologies Consider range of alternatives Create champions throughout organization Manage expectations Start small to mitigate risks Look to other industries for changes Understand iterative/evolutionary nature Underpromise Be honest Selling Technology to Senior Executives

  22. Prioritize and Focus • Prototype, demo, and show users • Be intimate with business drivers • Understand business requirements • Highlight benefits • Weigh risks • Identify those that enable new business

  23. Prioritize and Focus • Identify those that are easily integrated • Measure risks and ability to absorb failure/success • Understand organizational culture • Set aside money for changes

  24. Developing the Business Case • Identify business need • How does it fit in current priorities • Identify areas to be impacted • Benefits to/impact on bottom line • Competitive landscape • Identify assumptions and justify

  25. Developing the Business Case • Utilize proof of concepts/prototype • Add validity to proof of concept • Evaluate implementation options • Evaluate fit • Feedback • Identify project champion

  26. When to Deploy Emerging Technologies • Look at industry trends • Benchmark • Evaluate when risk of not doing it is greater than doing it • Pilot technology to validate proof of concept/direction • Utilize outside consultants to evaluate

  27. Lessons from the Past • Expert predictions are fallible • Timing is relevant • Iterate and review frequently • Which new technologies become adopted is hard to predict • Consequences of adoptions take long time to become evident

  28. Laws of Technology • Bigger Computers Are Better • Grosch’s Law • Smaller Computers Are Better • Moore • Connected Computers Are Better • Metcalfe • Machines May Leap, but Programs Creep • Wirth • Networks Will Triple Every Year • Gilder

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