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The climate challenge

Explore the man-made climate crisis, its direct link to capitalist production, greenhouse gas effect, carbon cycle imbalance, warming phenomenon, and concrete consequences like agricultural impacts, water scarcity, and species extinction. Learn about the urgency to limit global temperature rise, reduce emissions, and global climate policies to tackle the crisis.

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The climate challenge

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  1. The climate challenge

  2. Is ‘Human Society’ the cause? • This crisis is man-made (not natural) • Overpopulation? • This crisis is directly linked to the capitalist mode of production

  3. The greenhouse effect Solar radiation Infrared 100% 26% Capture 153 Wm-2 4% H2O 20% CO2, CH4, N20 50% Conduction, Evaporation +15°C 390 Wm-2

  4. The greenhouse effect • A natural phenomenon • Makes life on Earth possible • Higher temperature: liquid water is available • Brings inertia to the system • Main gases responsible: • Carbon dioxide (CO2) • Methane (CH4) • Nitrous oxide (N2O) • Water vapour (H2O) • Direct link to the carbon cycle

  5. The carbon cycle

  6. The imbalance of the carbon cycle • Vegetation / Atmosphere • Respiration : 60 Gt / year • Photosynthesis : 62 Gt / year • Net result = - 2 Gt / year • Oceans / Atmosphere • In solution : 92 Gt / year • Release : 90 Gt / year • Net result = - 2 Gt / year • Deforestation : +2 Gt / year • Burning of oil, coal, gas = +6 Gt / year • In total : • +8 Gt / year released by human activities • THIS IS TWO TIMES TOO MUCH!!

  7. The phenomenon of warming, causes and consequences

  8. Causes of global warming • Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution: • CO2 : + 31 % • CH4 : + 150 % • N2O : + 15 % • 3 crucial « events » • Industrial Revolution • Post war boom • Globalisation of exchanges

  9. Causes of global warming • Emitting sectors in France: • And globally :

  10. The coming climate change • The IPCC: • Notes the state of affairs in research and technologies • Publishes a report every 4 years (next report in 2013) • Works with scientific consensus • Prudent in its positions by nature • Yet they are not reassuring us…

  11. The future evolution of the climate • Today: the highest concentration of CO2 and CH4 since 400,000 years • This is only the beginning … if we don’t do anything

  12. Emissions total 2004 – 2030Emissions per inhabitant

  13. The reality for climate change • No more doubts on the existence of future climate disorders • Sudden and irreversible changes • The facts confirm the most pessimistic forecasts • Yet retroactive changes are not even taken into account: melting of the permafrost, destruction of the ice shelves at the poles …

  14. Arctic sea ice summer 2012

  15. Melting event Greenland 2012

  16. Arctic sea ice minimum on the 16th of September 2012

  17. OccupySandy.org

  18. What concrete consequences? • Central scenarios: • Between + 2°C et + 4°C • Highly probable scenarios: • Between + 1,1°C et + 6,4°C The facts confront us with the most pessimistic scenarios

  19. Concrete consequences • With + 2°C : • Decrease of agricultural yields • Risk of famine : + 200 million people • Lack of water : 1,8 billion people • Rising water levels: : 10 million people • Expansion of zones with malaria : + 50 million people • Extinction of 25 to 40% of all species • With + 3°C : • - 30% of the yield of wheat in India • Risk of famine : + 600 million people • Lack of water: 4 billion people • Rising water levels: 170 million people • Numerous islands erased from the globe • With + 4°C : • Collapse of agricultural yields • Expansion of the zones with malaria: + 400 million of people • Rising water levels:330 million people

  20. Stop temperature rise at + 2 °C • + 2 °C : danger limit • How do we do it? • Stabilise the temperature • Stabilise the concentrations of GHG’s (450ppm) • Bring emissions back to natural « recycling » capacity • Divide worldwide emissions by half • The factor 4 to garanty equal rights for all

  21. …or to divide by 3 with 9 billion people Maximum emission rights (TC/inhabitant) to divide world emissions by 2, with 6 billion people… Berger 2005

  22. To stop at + 2 °C • Emissions must decline before 2015 • Developed countries (compared to 1990) • - 25 to - 40% in 2020 • - 80 to - 95% in 2050 • From 2020 on, developed countries must deviate substantially from the trajectory (except Africa) • World emissions : -50 à -85% en 2050

  23. Climate policies of the dominant Powers

  24. The general trend • Subordinate adaptation to the rhythm and needs of capital • Cost-risk analysis (example = Stern report) • Priority of technological solutions • Creation of new markets • New developement cycle of capital : « green capitalism  » • Point to the responsability of emerging countries • Use climate menace to impose their neoliberal policies

  25. The Kyoto protocol • Some positive aspects : • « common but differentiated responsabilities » • Concrete targets and sanctions • BUT numerous problems • Insufficient targets: - 5,2 % (reduced to - 1,7%) • Emissions of maritime and air transport not taken into account • Carbon sinks = Emission reductions • Possible delocalisation of the efforts (CDM,MOC…) • Emission rights and carbon market: a form of privatisation of parts of the atmosphere

  26. Recent evolution of policies by the great powers • Insufficient commitments: • -20% in 2020 for the EU • Obama wants less than Kyoto • Ever more flexible mecanisms • Their role was limited with Kyoto • New technologies integrated as clean technologies: carbon sequestration, nuclear, biofuels… • A specific market for the forests:REDD • Make the lower classes take the brunt of the effort (ex : Carbon Tax ) • The answers to the climate and the economic crisis are contradictory, inconsistent public policies: cars, public transport…

  27. All negotiations ended in failure • UNEP: market forces, economic growth, green technologies

  28. In the face of a predicted failure, the menace of a barbaric management • New Orleans • Tuvalu, Vanuatu • The « Climate » report of the Pentagon: • The monstre storm « Sandy » « the numbers of deaths caused by wars, by famine and by disease will decrease the size of the population which will readapt to the carrying capacity ».  Source: An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for the US National Security, SCWARTZ & RANDALL, 2003

  29. A catastrophy can perhaps be avoided (in part…)

  30. Personal energy savings … • A policy of« small gestures » is not sufficient • Fight against attempts to make you feel guilty • An important part of what you buy, of transportation … is unavoidable • Necessity of collective action to make possible a lifestyle that saves energy and is low in carbon use

  31. Saving energy to lower emissions • What possibilities? • Suppress useless/harmful productions • Armement, the army… • Numerous manufacturing of chemicals, of fertilisers… • Advertisements • Energy efficiency • Rehabilitation of housing • Norms for electrical devices • Norms of car engines… • Reorganisation of society (the most important source) • Ex. of transportation : • Urbanisation : working class expulsed far from the city centre • Problemes of freight : production « just in time », international division of labour according to the cost of labour

  32. Renewable energies • Solar : an IMMENSE potential • Its caracter limits its valorisation in a capitalist system: • Low density in energy • Difficult to appropriate • Necessity of a new orientation of research • Necessity of making available and of large distribution of technologies: not only for those who can pay …

  33. Budgets R&D Energie (AIE) Research to be urgently redirected! Renewables 8,1%

  34. Our anticapitalist project

  35. Necessity of an anticapitalist strategy • The market is powerless: • A change which is too radical • Time is too short • Any change needs the « agreement of the citizens » • Capitalism confronts social forces with a dilemma • « To save nature or to increase the conditions of exploitation of the workers » • Increase the costs of the exploitation of nature versus a lowering of the cost of the work force • Our ecosocialist project : • Planning based at the same time on the democratically determined needs and taking into account the ecological problems

  36. Transitional method linked to an emergency program • A pedagocical role: • Demonstrate that it is possible • Confront capitalism with its contradictions • Link the social and the ecological dimension • The crises are fed by the same mecanisms: competition, search for profits, dictatorship of the markets … • Put the fulfillment of social needs and the respect of ecological equilibria at the centre of our program and our struggles

  37. Examples of sectoral demands • Suppression of unnecessary and harmful industries • The building sector : • Public service of housing and renovation • Transportation of commodities: • Ban on long distance transport by road • Public policy for the development of infrastructure for rail transport • Transportation of people: • Free public transport • Development of the possibilities for public transport infrastructure • Stop the development of suburbia • « reintroduction » of the working classes in the city centres • The energy sector: • For a public service of the whole of the energy sector • Nationalisation of the big companies in the sector • Decentralisation of the means of production of energy • … in order to allow control by users and by employees • Agriculture : food sovereignty and organic/ecological farming • Drastic reduction of nitrogen containing fertilizers • A break with the productivist logic in the farming world

  38. An emergency plan withprofound transformations • Reorganisation and transformation of labour • People’s control on production • Get out of the contradiction consumer/worker: • Reduction of working hours must be a central axis of our program • Necessary industrial reconversions : • Garantee employment, contracts, wages and work collectives • To be applied by the workers themselves

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