Population

1. Population AP Human Geography Unit 2

2. Ecumene …the portion of the earth with permanent human settlement, has expanded to cover most of the world’s land area…possibilism?

3. Distribution of World Population • Sparsely populated regions • Dry lands – Cold lands • Wet lands – High lands

4. World Population Density Europe East Asia North America??? South Asia Southeast Asia

5. Arithmetic Population Density Arithmetic population density is the number of people per total land area.

6. Physiological Density Physiological density is the number of people per arable land area. This is a good measure of the relation between population and agricultural resources in a society.

7. Natural Increase Rates The natural increase rate (NIR) is the percentage growth or decline in the population of a country per year (not including net migration).

8. Simple vs. Compound Interest Compound Simple $100.00 + $10.00 = $110.00 $110.00 + $10.00 = $120.00 $120.00 + $10.00 = $130.00 $130.00 + $10.00 = $140.00 $140.00 + $10.00 = $150.00 $150.00 + $10.00 = $160.00 $160.00 + $10.00 = $170.00 $170.00 + $10.00 = $180.00 $100.00 + $10.00 = $110.00 $110.00 + $11.00 = $121.00 $121.00 + $12.10 = $133.10 $133.10 + $13.31 = $146.41 $146.41 + $14.64 = $161.05 $161.05 + $16.10 = $177.15 $177.15 + $17.72 = $194.87 $194.87 + $19.49 = $214.36 Conclusion: At 10% it takes less then 8 years for compound interest to double the initial amount. If we continued, we'd find that the amount tripled in 12 years, quadrupled in 15 years, etc.

9. Crude Birth Rates The crude birth rate (CBR) is the total number of births in a country per 1000 population per year.

10. Crude Death Rates • The crude death rate (CDR) is the total number of deaths in a country per 1000 • population per year. • Why is Europe so high?

11. Total Fertility Rates The Total fertility rate (TFR) is the number of children an average woman in a society will have through her childbearing years.

12. Infant Mortality Rates The infant mortality rate is the number of infant deaths per 1000 live births per year.

13. Life Expectancy at birth Life expectancy at birth is the average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live.

14. What is a model? • …an abstract generalization of real-world geographies that share a common pattern • …assumptions of reality that may be valid and may not, but don’t exist

15. Demographic Transition Model --Warren Thompson (1887-1973), American Demographer • Birth and death rates change because… • Changes in economic systems (from traditional to industrial, etc.) • Changes in information about health and healthcare • Changes in people’s attitudes about family size

16. Demographic Transition Model

17. Demographic Transition in England Industrial Revolution

18. Population Pyramid by Stage

19. US Population Pyramid Population Pyramid: Bar chart that shows the age and sex structure of the population

20. Percent of Population under 15 About one-third of world population is under 15, but the percentage by country varies from over 40% in most of Africa and some Asian countries, to under 20% in much of Europe…Dependency Ratio

21. Population Pyramids in U.S. cities

22. Rapid Growth in Cape Verde Cape Verde, which entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in about 1950, is experiencing rapid population growth. Its population history reflects the impacts of famines and out-migration.

23. Moderate Growth in Chile Chile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the 1930s, and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s.

24. Low Growth in Denmark Denmark has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition since the 1970s, with little population growth since then. Its population pyramid shows increasing numbers of elderly and few children.

25. Thomas Malthus • What is overpopulation? • Carrying capacity • “Worldly Philosopher” • 18th Century England • An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798 • What did Malthus miss??? • Neo-Malthusians (Doomers) vs. Cornucopians (Boomers) • Critics

26. Food & Population, 1950-2000Malthus vs. Actual Trends Malthus predicted population would grow faster than food production, but food production actually expanded faster than population in the 2nd half of the 20th century.

27. A more optimistic approach • Ester Boserup (1910-1999) • Wrote “The Conditions of Agricultural Growth” in 1965 • Opposite to Malthus • People have resources of knowledge and technology to increase food supply as necessary

28. Boserup’s main points • Environments have limits that restrict population • But these limits can be changed using technologies • Population growth is the trigger for innovation to allow food supply to increase • e.g. irrigation, weeding, crop intensification, better seed quality, tools, techniques etc

29. Was Boserup right? • Evidence which supports Boserup: • Increasing intensity of shifting cultivation • Move from ‘slash and burn’ practices to using irrigation in rural areas with higher population densities • The Green Revolution – widespread introduction of high-yielding varieties, pesticides etc • Hugely increased yields allowed more people to be fed • GMOs – Genetically Modified Organisms

30. Was Boserup right? • Boserup admits that overpopulation can lead to unsuitable farming practices which may degrade the land • E.g. population pressure as one of the reasons for desertification in the Sahel region

31. What Do You Think?

32. Skills Check Directions: Using the graphs/charts provided answer the following questions. • Are there more men or women in the country represented in Chart C between the ages of 60 and 70? Why might this be the case? • Which population pyramid represents Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition model? What are some of the problems this country is most likely facing? Provide an example of a country in this stage. • Which population pyramid represents Stage 2 of the Demographic Transition model? What demographic characteristics of this country are apparent based on the graph? Provide an example of a Stage 2 country. • Which population pyramid represents Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition model? What type of population growth are they experiencing? (ie. low, moderate, high, zero) What region would we typically find countries in this stage? • Sketch the outline of a typical population pyramid for a country experiencing decreasing population. ie. “Stage 5”

33. Population Policies • Two approaches to addressing overpopulation: • Economic Development • Distribution of Contraceptives • “High Mortality=Fast Population Growth”

34. Crude Birth Rate Decline, 1980-2005 Crude birth rates declined in most countries during the 1980s and 1990s (though the absolute number of births per year increased from about 120 to 130 million).

35. Population Policies: India “Wait until the 1st child is 3 before having your 2nd” • How do democracies institute population controls? • How might their programs differ from authoritarian regimes?

36. China’s Lost Girls • Describe the Chinese government’s approach to slowing population growth. • Based on the video, as well as information from your text and handouts, how successful has the program been? • Describe the unintended consequences of the Chinese policy. • After watching the video, do you believe that this policy is something that should be instituted in other countries? Be sure to provide support for your opinion.

37. Population Policies: China

38. Population Policies: China In the 1970s the Chinese government had issued three policies to reduce the birth rate: “Later, longer, fewer” • Late marriage – men were encouraged to marry no earlier than 28 years old (25 in rural areas) and women no earlier than 25 years old (23 in rural areas). • Longer spacing between births – couples were encouraged to allow at least a four-year gap after the first child before having another baby. • Fewer children – it was suggested that urban families should be limited to two children, and rural families to three children.

39. Population Policies: China Article 47 This Law shall go into effect as of September 1, 2002. (the law began in 1979) • Article 18 The State maintains its current policy for reproduction, encouraging late marriage and childbearing and advocating one child per couple. • Article 22 Discrimination against, maltreatment and abandonment of baby girls are prohibited. • Article 27 The State shall issue to a couple who volunteer to have only one child in their lifetime a “Certificate of Honour for Single-Child Parents”. Couples who are issued the said certificate shall enjoy rewards. • Article 35 Use of ultrasonography or other techniques to identify foetal gender for non-medical purposes is strictly prohibited. Sex-selective pregnancy termination for non-medical purposes is strictly prohibited. • Article 41 Citizens who give birth to babies not in compliance with the provisions of Article 18 of this Law shall pay a social maintenance fee prescribed by law.

40. Population Policies: China One-Child Policy…Two-Child Reality • There are no criminal sanctions for couples who have multiple births. • Wealthy couples are increasingly turning to fertility medicines to have multiple births, due to the lack of penalties against couples who have more than one child in their first birth. • If both parents are only children they are allowed tohave more than one child provided the children are spaced more than 4 years • In most rural areas if the first child is a girl couples are allowed to have another child • Families who have children with mental or physical disabilities are sometimes allowed to have another child • Some parents manage to be outside the country or in Hong Kong, Macau, or Taiwan when giving birth to their child. Those children do not count in the one-child policy, even if they are technically a natural born Chinese citizen through parentage.

41. Population Policies: China 1964 1982 2000

42. Population Policies: China China is expected to be overtaken by India as the world’s most populous country in the next 25 years. 2012 China Population:1,343,239,923 2050 Projected Population: 1,424,000,000 Pop. Growth Rate: 0.481% (2012) 2012India Population:1,205,073,612 2050Projected Population: 1,807,000,000 Pop. Growth Rate: 1.312% (2012)

43. Population Policies: USSR • Pro-Natalist • Germany prior to/during WWII, Singapore, Iran • Starting on July 8, 1944 the government of the U.S.S.R. began awarding medals to women in order to encourage a high fertility rate.

44. Epidemiologic Transition Stage 1: Pestilence & famine (Black Plague) Stage 2: Receding pandemics • Urbanization/population issues—Cholera (John Snow) Stage 3: Degenerative & human-caused diseases (cardiovascular disease, “heart attack” & cancer) • Decline in infectious disease Stage 4: Delayed degenerative diseases (cardiovascular disease & cancer) Stage 5: Emergence & reemergence of infectious & parasitic diseases (AIDS, SARS, TB, Ebola, West Nile, etc.) • Why a return to infectious disease?

45. Cholera in London, 1854 By mapping the distribution of cholera cases and water pumps in Soho, London, Dr. John Snow identified the source of the water-borne epidemic.

46. Tuberculosis Death Rates The tuberculosis death rate is good indicator of a country’s ability to invest in health care. TB is still one of the world’s largest infectious disease killers.

47. Avian Flu, 2003 - 2006 The first cases of avian flu in this outbreak were reported in Southeast Asia.

48. HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates, 2005 Uganda Botswana Zimbabwe South Africa The highest HIV infection rates are in sub-Saharan Africa. India and China have large numbers of cases, but lower infection rates at present.

49. AIDS in Africa Video • Which countries/programs were at least somewhat successful in preventing the spread of AIDS? • What strategies worked for groups and countries when trying to stop the AIDS epidemic in Africa? • What can/should MDC’s (ie. the United States) and pharmaceutical companies do, if anything?