Real-time Prediction and Forecasting of Diseases Horticulture Commodities

1. Real-time Prediction and Forecasting of Diseases Horticulture Commodities Damon L. Smith and Andrea F. Payne Department of Entomology and Plant Pathology, Oklahoma State University Stillwater, OK

2. Weather-based Advisories in Oklahoma • Dollar spot prediction on creeping bentgrass • Grape black rot prediction • Pecan scab prediction

3. Dollar Spot Advisory • Come visit the following posters: • 389-P Using weather variables to predict the probability of dollar spot development. D.L. Smith and J.P. Kerns Oklahoma State University and UW-Madison. • 391-P Effects of temperature on growth and aggressiveness of Sclerotinia homoeocarpa. C. Wilson and J.Kerns University of Wisconsin-Madison and D.L. Smith, Oklahoma State University.

4. Grape Black Rot Advisor Spotts, R.A. 1977. Effect of Leaf Wetness Duration and Temperature on the Infectivity of Guignardia bidwellii on Grape Leaves. Phytopathology Vol. 67: 1378-1381.

5. LW and RH Correlations According to Sentelhas et al., 2008, Agri. & Forest Meteor.

6. Black Rot Advisor http://agweather.mesonet.org/index.php/advisors/grape_black_rot/black_rot_advisor http://agweather.mesonet.org/research/

7. Black Rot Advisor http://agweather.mesonet.org/index.php/advisors/grape_black_rot/black_rot_advisor http://agweather.mesonet.org/research/

8. Norman, OK - 2009 • 30% reduction in fungicide applications using the advisory • Consistent among other locations

9. Pecan Scab Advisor • Scab hour (SH) – an hour in which the average T ≥ 21 °C and RH ≥ 90% • Accumulation of SH begins after a 14-day fungicide protection period ends • Fungicide application is advised after a set number of SH based on cultivar susceptibility Driever, 1996

10. Pecan Scab Advisor • Grower Inputs • Location • Variety Susceptibility • Last Fungicide Application

11. Pecan Scab Advisor • The advisory calculates the number of accumulated scab hours after a 14-day protection period. • Recommendations are clearly illustrated for the user • A 3-day forecast gives growers another tool to aid their decision to spray or not to spray

12. Fruit Disease – Madill, OK * P < .10 *No significant Difference between treatments

13. Improving the Pecan Scab Advisory 108-O Probability modeling of pecan scab using weather variables as inputs. A.F. Payne and D.L. Smith, Oklahoma State University

14. Pecan IPMPipe http://pecan.ipmpipe.org/

15. Pecan IPMPipe • Uses Weather Stations in NOAA’s Network • Belt Wide Pecan Scab Management Using the OSU Model

16. Major Challenge • How well do the NOAA measurements of weather correlate with the Oklahoma Mesonet?

17. Mesonet vs. IPMPipe * Difference amounts to 4.3 to 5.0 hours over 14-day period

18. Mesonet vs. IPMPipe * Difference amounts to 7 hours over 14-day period

19. Other Challenges • Refining scales of weather data measurement to drive site-specific models – Improving site-specific weather measurement (issue in the Midwest) • Improving weather forecasts = Improved disease forecasts

20. Questions