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Real time forecasting of geomagnetic indices. Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics. Why forecast indices?. Summarized continuous information about time dependent phenomenon Used to drive models Large data sets available for Analysis Model evaluation Model development. Outline.
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Real time forecasting of geomagnetic indices Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space Physics
Why forecast indices? • Summarized continuous information about time dependent phenomenon • Used to drive models • Large data sets available for • Analysis • Model evaluation • Model development
Outline • Some applications using geomagnetic indices • Real-time forecasts • The Lund Dst model • Model evaluation • Short term dynamics • Long term dynamics • Real-time operation
Magnetospheric Specification Model Input: 50 keV el. - Kp http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rpc/msm/index.html
UPOS: Radiation Belt Environment Inputs: - Solar wind - Dst 10 keV to 5 MeV electrons10 keV to 1 MeV protons http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/RBE/index.html
SWRI Precipitating electron flux for energies 300 eV to 1MeV Input: - Dst http://climatology.space.swri.edu/
NOAA Space Weather Scales for Geomagnetic Stormshttp://sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/
Kp for GIC forecasts Boteler, D.H. "Assessment of geomagnetic hazard to power systems in Canada",Natural Hazards, 23, 101-120, 2001.
Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) Indices Models http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/
Solar Wind Monitor An element for continuously monitoring the solar wind
Kp at RWC-Sweden http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc
Dst at RWC-Sweden http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc
Matlab Java
Dt Accuracy of the onset time of large slopes in Dst
Wavelet of Dst 1.3 y 1 y 0.5 y 27 d
Wavelet of predicted Dst 1.3 y 1 y 0.5 y 27 d
Future • List of updated forecast models • ESA/TOS-EMA?, ISES?, SEC? (alphabetical order!) • Plots, Data, Models • Evaluation • Evaluation • RMS error and correlation (overall performance) • Skill scores (comparative overall performance) • Onset times • Long term dynamics • Real time performance
Space Weather Technology Solar-Terrestrial Physics Power grid Indices Spacecraft