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Jack O. Bovender Chairman & CEO. Health Care Market Outlook Strong. National Health Care Spending 1990 – 2010. U.S. Healthcare Expenditures ($ Billions). 12.0%. 13.4%. 13.3%. 14.8%. 15.4%. 15.9%. 16.4%. 17.1%. National Health Care Expenditures as a Share of Total GDP.
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Jack O. Bovender Chairman & CEO
Health Care Market Outlook Strong National Health Care Spending 1990 – 2010 U.S. Healthcare Expenditures ($ Billions) 12.0% 13.4% 13.3% 14.8% 15.4% 15.9% 16.4% 17.1% National Health Care Expenditures as a Share of Total GDP Will the U.S. economy shift 2.3% of GDP to health care services over the next seven years? Source: U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services—National Health Expenditure Projections, 2003
Inpatient Admissions and Outpatient Visits 1980 - 2002 Inpatient Admissions Outpatient Visits (millions) Admissions (millions) Outpatient Visits Source: AHA Annual Survey, 1980 - 2002
HCA Annual Environmental ReviewKey Findings and Actions, October 2003 • HCA’s core business strategy is sound. The Company’s focus will continue to be on market-leading positions in large, fast-growing urban communities. • To compete more effectively in the outpatient area, the Company will establish a senior level operational unit focused on outpatient services. HCA anticipates making strategic acquisitions in outpatient services. (Marilyn Tavenner, President Outpatient Services, effective January 1, 2004) • The Company intends to reduce capital expenditures from approximately $2 billion in 2003, to approximately $1.8 billion in 2004 (excluding acquisitions). • HCA anticipates lowering its target ratio of debt-to-total capitalization from 55% to the low 50s by mid-to-late 2005.
HCA Annual Environmental ReviewKey Findings and Actions, October 2003 • The Company’s current $1.5 billion share repurchase program will be completed in a judicious manner, as dictated by market conditions. • HCA’s Senior Management and Board of Directors are evaluating a change to the Company’s existing dividend policy and expected to announce any changes in the Company’s existing dividend policy in the first quarter of 2004. (New quarterly dividend of $0.13 per share to be paid June 1, 2004). • The company has revised its long-term earnings per share growth target after 2004 (rebasing for outlier reductions and higher bad debts) from mid-teens to low-double digits.
Strong Cash Flow Trends Provide Opportunities Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities Dollars in Millions Capital Reinvestment Balance Sheet Share Repurchase Program New Dividend Policy Excluding settlements with government agencies and investigation related costs.
37 ER Expansions 37 ER Expansions New Denver Facility Patient Safety & Infrastructure Expansions Routine New Facilities HCA Capital Expenditures Billions 2000 $1.2 2001 $1.4 2002 $1.7 2003 $1.8 2004E $1.8 Expansions Open Heart, Imaging Cardiology, Oncology, etc. 54 Facilities with Surgery and/or ICU/CCU expansions Four New Facilities 378 Beds 1,565 New Beds Distribution of Capital Dollars 2002 and Beyond
Opportunities Of Having Strong Cash Flow 650M Shares 12/31/96 465M Shares2 4/30/04 Share repurchase program $42.19/share $35.76/share YTD 20041 $7.3 Billion 244 Million Shares 38% of outstanding shares Average Price: $30.03 $422M: 10.0M Shares $45.53/share 2003 $1.1B: 31.1M Shares 2002 $36.88/share $282M: 6.2M Shares $706M: 19.2M Shares 2001 $28.65/share 2000 $1.3B: 43.5M Shares $24.61/share $1.4B: 55.6M Shares 1999 $22.68/share $930M: 41M Shares 1998 $33.59/share 1997 $1.3B: 37.9M Shares 1: 2004 purchases through 5-6-04 2: Includes other activities affecting share balance (stock option exercises, restricted grants, and ESPP activity).
Our Commitment To… And above all else… …the Care and Improvement of Human Life …our Mission & Values …the Care and Safety of Our Patients …Ethics and Compliance …Diversity …Transparency of Earnings …Reinvestment in Our Facilities …Enhancing Shareholder Value
The Genesis of the Bad Debt/Charity Care Issue HCA is in 14 of the 20 highest uninsured states, with 72% of its hospitals in those states 17.0% 13.1% 13.1% 22.2% 21.2% 15.9% National Average: 15.2% 1 19.3% 19.2% 18.1% 15.1% 15.4% 15.4% 16.4% 23.5% 20.3% 14.6% 23.5% HCA Weighted Average: 22.6% 2 16.7% 19.7% 29.7% 25.6% 22.8% 22.2% >20% Uninsured 15-20% Uninsured <15% Uninsured 1: U.S. Census Bureau “Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2002”. 2: Kaiser Commission: Health Ins. Coverage of Nonelderly Adults 2001-2002.
Bad Debt, Charity Care, and Accounts Receivable Management Milton JohnsonSenior Vice President & ControllerJoe SteakleySenior Vice President - Internal AuditBeverly WallacePresident – Financial Services Group
Bad Debts & CharityQuarterly Trending Bad Debts & Charity $912 $837 $795 $786 $1B $610 $587 $567 $514 $491 $0 Bad Debts Charity Bad Debts/Net Revenue 3
Origination of Bad Debt Expense Source of Bad Debt Expense1: Uninsured Patients 75-80% Co-Pay & Deductibles 20-25% 1. Management estimate for 12 month period ending 3/31/2004. 4
Uninsured Volume Same Facility - Percent Change from Prior Year Uninsured Admissions Three quarters of stabilization 13.7% vs. PY 11.5% vs. PY 7.2% vs. PY 7.5% vs. PY 2.4% vs. PY Two quarters of stabilization Uninsured/Charity ER Visits (In Thousands) 19.9% vs. PY 9.4% vs. PY 17.9% vs. PY 5.1% vs. PY 3.2% vs. PY Source: QMIRS/CASEMIX . Same facility based on current same facility definition for all quarters. 5
Uninsured/Charity Volume Same Facility - Percent of Total Uninsured/Charity Admissions (Percent of Total) Uninsured/Charity ER Visits (Percent of Total) Source: CASEMIX. Same facility based on current same facility definition for all quarters. 6
Uninsured Revenues Consolidated - Percent Change from Prior Year Uninsured Net Revenue (In Millions) 38.4% vs. PY 32.3% vs. PY 20.1% vs. PY 3.2% vs. PY 1.6% vs. PY 7
Uninsured Revenues Consolidated - Percent of Total Uninsured Net Revenue (Percent of Total) 8
Self-Pay Accounts Receivable Balance Sheet Analysis 3/31/04 Total Self-Pay A/R $3,209 Approximately two-thirds Uninsured and one-third co-pay deductibles A/R Q1/03-Q1/04 Chg. Increase in Self-Pay A/R1 $550 Approximately 75% of increase is from uninsured accounts and 25% from co-pay & deductibles. 1: Hospital Only 9
Unreserved Self-Pay Accounts Receivable(Dollars in Millions) 2Q 03 3Q 03 4Q 03 1Q 04 Total Self-Pay A/R $2,721 $2,867 $3,000 $3,209 Total Allowance for Doubtful Accounts 2,378 2,494 2,649 2,856 Net Unreserved Self-Pay A/R $343 $373 $351 $353 10
Accounts Receivable IndicatorsCash Collections % Adj. Net Revenue / Days in A/R 2003 2004 2002 Cash Collections % Adjusted Net Revenue Days in Accounts Receivable 11
Change in Hospital Accounting PolicyBad Debts Move to reserving a percentage of Uninsured and Co-insurance accounts receivable, and unbilled uninsured revenue during the period. Each hospitals’ uncollectability percentage will be updated quarterly based on the hindsight analysis results. Aggregate uncollectability percentage will decrease due to inclusion of unbilled uninsured revenue in base. To be fully implemented in 2Q 2004 12
Scope of Quarterly Hindsight Project • Hindsight now performed quarterly • Over 2,000 hours per quarter to complete • Each Hindsight Project: • Test approx. 130 hospitals • Sample comprising 90-95% of the Company’s Hospital billed patient A/R and Net Revenue • The resulting Day Metric applied to 163 hospitals • Remaining 27 of 190 Hospitals: • HealthONE – 6 • Recent Acquisitions/New Facilities – 13 • International – 8 14
Hindsight Theory: Best Predictor of Current Allowance is Past Results January 31, January 31, 2003 2004 15
1/31/03 - Hindsight Date 2/1/03 <- Hindsight Period -> 1/31/04 A/R > 1 yr Bad Debt & Charity Write-Offs Recoveries Collected or Contractual Source: 134 hindsight hospitals reviewed 1Q 2004 16
Hindsight Allowance Calculation (in millions) (B+C) Source: 134 hindsight hospitals reviewed 1Q 2004. 17
Conversion of Hindsight Allowance to a Day Metric Hindsight Allow. expressed as a Day Metric = 110 days Hindsight Allow. as a Percent of 1/31/03 Total A/R = 39.4% Hindsight Allow. as a Percent of 1/31/03 Self Pay A/R = 89.4% 18
Roll Forward of 110 Day Metric to 3/31/04 Consolidated A/R Agings to Determine the Recommended Allowance Recommended Allowance based on a 110-day Day Metric = $2,710 Recommended Allowance based on 89.4% of 3/31/04 Self Pay A/R = $2,701 19
1Q 2004 Allowance Adjustment (in millions) 21
New Hospital Allowance Methodology (in millions) 22
Uninsured admissions are relatively small… opportunities exist for non-emergent admissions Admissions 403,664 2.5% Non-Emergency193,662 48% Emergency 210,002 52% 48% 52% Medicare 103,820 Uninsured 13,313 74% Managed/ Medicaid 92,869 Medicare 62,554 Uninsured 4,631 26% Managed/ Medicaid 126,477 26% 74% Net % Change 1Q03-04 Net % Change 1Q03-04 1st Quarter 2004 – Eastern & Western Groups 24
ER has the highest volume of uninsured… requires intervention ER Visits 1,235,641 2.3% ER Visits 1,025,639 Admitted 210,002 17% 83% Medicare 103,820 Uninsured 13,313 Managed/ Medicaid 92,869 Medicare 109,235 Uninsured 231,436 95% Managed/ Medicaid 684,968 95% 5% Net % Change 1Q03-04 Net % Change 1Q03-04 1st Quarter 2004 – Eastern & Western Groups 25
Net Income Improvement Opportunity Similar Between Co-Pay/Deductible and Uninsured Accounts 2003 Co-pay & Deductibles Bad Debt Charity/Uninsured Bad Debt $600 Million $2.4 Billion (Carried at Gross) Cost to Charge Ratio “Full Absorption” 25-30% (Carried at Net) $600-720 Million Cost to HCA 26
Origination of Bad Debt Expense “How System is Accessed” 75-80% Uninsured Patients 20-25% Co-Pay & Deductibles • 1Q 01 vs. 1Q 04 front- • end collections 93%, • percent collected 53%, • co-pays/deductibles • 25% • Intensify collections at • discharge and post • discharge • Minimum front-end deposit requirements 27
75-80% Uninsured Patients Bad Debt Action Plan Patient Financial Management Committee In-house case management Concurrent financial counseling Standard discharge process • Follow-up care criteria established. • Screen all potential non-emergent patients by • qualified medical • personnel • Once stabilized or deemed • non-emergent, • proceed • with collection effort • Mandatory ER case • management • Executive Management approval must be obtained Minimum deposit standards Enhanced front-end collection goals 28
Net Revenue ImpactUnderpayment Recoveries / Overturned Denials 29
Cost to Collect Black line indicates Baseline cost 30
Focused Area of Opportunities • Improve front-end collections (co-pay/deductibles) • Simplify charity process • Case management (ER & Inpatient) • Non-emergent screening (ER & Inpatient) 31
Richard M. Bracken President & Chief Operating Officer
Patient Volumes • Outpatient Services • Managed Care Pricing • Labor Management • Kansas City 2
1,568 +2.5% 1,581 +0.6% 1,463 +2.7% 1,499 +2.8% 1,508 +2.7% Percent Change from Prior Year Admissions (000’s) Q1 2004…Inpatient Volumes Improved From Recent Trends Admissions 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Admissions (000’s) – % from PY Admissions (000’s) Same Facility – Admissions in Thousands 3
Admissions growth rates vary by market 2,500 Top 15 Markets in Admissions Growth +11,860/ +5.9% vs. PY Dallas/ Ft. Worth +5.6% 2,000 Nashville +14.9% Denver 2 +6.1% 1,500 Tampa Bay +3.1% Rio Grande +12.8% Richmond +4.9% 1,000 San Antonio +3.1% El Paso +9.7% Austin +6.1% 500 Panhandle +2.7% S.Carolina 0.1% Far West Una. -3.2% Ft. Myers +5.9% NW Ga. +12.9% Las Vegas -0.8% No. VA -3.9% - Columbus +1.6% N. Cent. Fla. +5.2% Switzerland -6.4% Mid. GA +0.3% Indiana -12.3% San Jose +3.9% Jacksonville +4.5% Cent. La. -1.4% (500) Mid America -5.2% N. Monroe -11.0% Corpus Christi -1.7% So. Cal -5.6% (1,000) Bottom 15 Markets in Admissions Growth -2,773/ -2.6% vs. PY Treasure Coast -2.4% Houston -2.6% (1,500) -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Average Chg. +2.5% 1 Admissions Change Total Admissions Determine Bubble Size Admissions % Change 1: Same Facility 2: Denver is a non-consolidating JV Market Volume Variance by Market – 1st Quarter – Same Market 4
Q1 2004…Top 15 Markets Performing Above Company Average 3,000 2,500 Nashville +14.9% 2,000 Dallas/ Ft. Worth +5.6% 1,500 Admissions Change Denver 2 +6.1% Tampa Bay +3.1% Rio Grande +12.8% 1,000 El Paso +9.7% Richmond +4.9% Austin +6.1% San Antonio +3.1% Ft. Myers +5.9% 500 NW Ga. +12.9% N. Cent. Fla. +5.2% Panhandle +2.7% San Jose +3.9% - Jacksonville +4.5% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Admissions % Change Average Chg. +2.5% 1 Top 15 Markets in Admissions Growth +11,860/ +5.9% vs. PY Top 15 Markets represent 49% of Total Company Admissions Total Admissions Determine Bubble Size 1: Same Facility 2: Denver is a non-consolidating JV Market Volume Variance by Market – 1st Quarter – Same Market 5
Q1 2004…Bottom 15 Markets Performing Below Company Average S.Carolina 0.1% Columbus +1.6% Cent. La. -1.4% Mid America -5.2% Mid. GA +0.3% Corpus Christi -1.7% Switzerland -6.4% No. VA -3.9% Las Vegas -0.8% Far West Una. -3.2% N. Monroe -11.0% Treasure Coast -2.4% Indiana -12.3% So. Cal -5.6% Houston -2.6% Bottom 15 Markets represent 25% of Total Company Admissions Average Chg. +2.5% 1 200 100 - (100) (200) (300) Admissions Change (400) (500) Bottom 15 Markets in Admissions Growth -2,773/ -2.6% vs. PY (600) Total Admissions Determine Bubble Size (700) (800) (900) -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% Admissions % Change 1: Same Facility Volume Variance by Market – 1Q 04 vs. PY – Same Facility 6
Q1 2004…“Big Earners” Had Strong Admissions Growth Dallas/ Ft. Worth Denver Top 15 Earnings markets (69% of Company’s earnings1) grew +3.5%2. (Company Avg.: 2.5%) Tampa Bay Houston Richmond Nashville San Antonio U.K. S. Carolina Panhandle Dade 1: Includes Denver – A non-consolidating JV Market 2: Same facility – Q1 04 vs. Prior Year Utah Jacksonville N. Cent. Fla. Las Vegas 7
Capital Placed in Service by Year 2003 projects typically approved 24-30 months ago In Service Average Timeframe 9 mo. 18 mo. Approved Construction Design & Permits (Dollars in Millions) 8