Thomas A. Wasula NOAA/NWS at Albany NROW X November 5-6, 2008

1. A Storm-Scale Analysis of the 16 June 2008 Significant Severe Weather Event across New York and Western New England Thomas A. Wasula NOAA/NWS at Albany NROW X November 5-6, 2008

2. Motivation • CSTAR III examines sensible weather with warm season cutoff lows • Storm-scale environment important to understand mesoscale substructure of convection with cutoffs • New technology being utilized in short-fuse operations

3. Outline • Brief Synoptic and Mesoscale Overview • Radar Analysis 1.) GR2Analyst 2.) Four Dimensional Storm Cell Investigator (FSI) 3.) Traditional Radar Graphics

4. Background • Numerous large hail reports with significant agricultural damage to orchards across upstate NY • Short wave trough and cold front ahead of Cutoff focuses convection • Cold pool anomalies (steep lapse rates) coupled with sufficient shear and instability allowed multicellular and isolated supercells to impact region

6. Moderate Risk: Albany Forecast Area 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook

7. 16 June 2008: 1200 UTC 500 hPa Heights, Temps and Winds www.spc.noaa.gov

8. 16 June 2008: 1200 UTC 300 hPa Isotachs, Streamlines, Divergence and Winds www.spc.noaa.gov

9. 1200 UTC KALB Sounding SBCAPE = 644 J kg-1 DCAPE = 305 J kg-1 0-6 km Shear = 49 kts WBZ HGT = 9.7 kft 700-500 hPa LR = 5.6°C km-1

10. 1800 UTC LAPS 850-500 hPa Lapse rates 700-500 hPa lapse rates were also around 7°C km-1

11. 0.5ºGFS Lapse Rate Anomalies16 June 2008/1800 UTC Thanks to Matt Scalora for this slide

12. 1800 UTC LAPS SBCAPE and MSLP Light blue shade to green shade 1000-3000 J kg-1

13. 0.5º GFS 16 June 2008/1800 UTC Thanks to Matt Scalora for this slide

14. 1800 UTC Albany Sounding -20ºC height =20.2kft

15. 1745 UTC Satellite and Lightning Significant clearing and destabilization occurred across eastern NY

16. NWS at Albany Forecast Area

17. GR2Analyst

18. FSI – Future of Radar Analysis (AWIPS) • Improved vertical cross-sections (Dynamic) • Constant Altitude Planned Position Indicator (CAPPI) for cross-sections with 8-bit data plotted at constant altitudes • 3D Visualizations – 8-bit radar data from elevation scans, vertical cross-sections and CAPPI’s are plotted as 2D textures in a 3D space • Virtual volume scans – No volume scan is incomplete

19. FSI PPI CAPPI Vertical Cross-section 3D Flier

20. 16-2300 UTC 0.5° Base REF Loop Thanks to ITO Vasil Koleci for assistance with loop !!!

21. 1855 UTC FSI 50 dBZ up to 27 kft

22. KBGM vs. KENX VIL VIL: 55-60 kg m-2 VIL: 45-50 kg m-2

23. 1855 UTC Cross-Section -20°C WER

24. 1855 UTC : Golf Ball Hail (1.75”) in Colonie and 2” hail in Guilderland !!!

25. 1900 UTC 0.5° Base REF Height of 50 dBZ isosurface = 30 kft

26. 1909 UTC: Hail reports kept coming in (CESTM too) !!! 50 dBZ to 30 kft

27. 1946 UTC: FSI 65 dBZ to 24 kft ! Wow !

28. 2133 UTC 0.5º Base REF

29. 2133 UTC 0.5° Base REF X-section

30. 2133 UTC Echo Tops

31. 2133 UTC 50 dBZ Isosurface

32. 2142 UTC “Hail Monster” -20°C 60 dBZ isosurface up to 30 kft !!! Golf Ball-size hail reported

33. 2142 UTC KENX 4-Panel Derived Product Gridded VIL Echo Tops Layer REF MAX 2 (24-33 kft) Layer REF MAX3 (33-60 kft)

34. 2146 UTC KENX 4-Panel Derived Product Gridded VIL Echo Tops Layer REF MAX 2 (24-33 kft) Layer REF MAX3 (33-60 kft)

35. 2146 UTC: Three Body Scatterer/Hail Streak…

36. 2146 UTC Base REF 4-panel 0.5° 1.3° 3.1° 2.4°

37. 2146 UTC: FSI 50 dBZ well above -20°C

38. 2142 UTC KENX SRM 0.5° 0.9° Tornado ??? 1.3° 1.8°

39. 2146 UTC KENX SRM 0.5° 0.9° 1.3° 1.8°

40. Results • General Severe Weather Synoptic and Mesoscale Environments identified well • New technology such as FSI aided forecasters with timely warnings • Hail ground truth reports were plentiful • 18 SVR’s issued with 15 verified; 1 TOR • POD = 0.93 (40/43 events); FAR = 0.17; CSI = 0.78; Lead Time = 25.5 minutes