Russia and the Former Soviet Republics

YOUR NAME HERE Russia and the Former Soviet Republics

Overview • Background Video • Russian People • Economic Issues • Politics and Government • US Interests

Interim Summary • Background Video • Russian People • Economic Issues • Politics and Government • US Interests

Russian People Ethnic Diversity • Soviet Union was one of the world's most ethnically diverse countries, with 150+ distinct ethnic groups • Population estimated at 293M in 1991 • Majority were Russians (51%), Ukrainians (15%), and Uzbeks (6%) • Even after USSR dissolution, Russia remains one of the most ethnically diverse

Russian People Russian Population Decline • Russia is 6th most populous country with a population estimated at 142.8 million… • … But serious population decline since 1990s: • Falling birthrate • Rising infertility rates • Falling life expectancy • Deteriorating public health • Highest infant mortality of industrialized nations

Russian People Education • Education, even under the Soviet system, has always played a significant role in Russian society as demonstrated by: • Near 100% literacy rate • World class achievement in music, ballet, art, science, literature, etc. • At least 8 Russian recipients of the Nobel Prize, including Poet LaureateJoseph Brodsky

Russian People Religion • Soviet policy towards religion based on Marxism-Leninism ideology • Control and suppression of religion • Atheism became official doctrine • Even under Soviet rule, many Russians professed religious belief • State-sponsored persecution of Jews and Christians, with Muslims faring somewhat better, until fall of USSR

Personal Traits • Pessimism… • Durability… • Patience… Difficulties of life, “optimistic fatality,” and bittersweet humor Stability, defending the status quo, and predictability are critical aspects of the long-suffering, enduring Russian character Tenacity, stamina, and composure are required in Russian interactions Russian People Harsh history and skeptical outlook leads Russians to value stability, security, and predictability. (Yale Richmond)

Russian People Personal Traits (cont) • Home… • Friends… • No compromise… A sanctuary of security, hospitality, and relaxed/caring environment Close, intimate relationships held in high regard and aren’t entered into lightly Mutual concession can be seen as a sign of weakness Better to have 100 friends than 100 rubles. (Russian proverb)

Personal Traits (cont) • Traditions… • “Russian soul”… Russians are very proud of their heritage, from folk traditions to importance as a regional power Emphasis on feeling, sentiment, and nostalgia for the past, as well as a valuing of suffering over satisfaction Russian People Traditional Russian values– self-sacrifice, compassion, family importance, moral strength, respect for elders, and spirituality– pervades Russian society.

Russian People Similarities • Continental orientation… • Frontier spirit… • Nuclear weapons… • Bigness… Vast land, ethnic diversity, and regional power Expansionist mentality Large stockpiles, environmental issues, and concern over nuclear trafficking Energetic, inventive emphasis

Russian People Differences * Authority * * Individual / Group * Power flows up from the people to elected officials Highly centralized, authoritarian decision makers impose change from above Emphasis on individualism Emphasis on communal good or sobornost

Russian People Differences * Nature of Conflict * * Change * Most major wars fought far from country Most conflict fought within or near country Change or “shaking up” the status quo viewed positively Change fraught with danger and uncertainty; stability preferred

Economics • Economic decline began long before the USSRs eventual dissolution. Key factors of this economic stagnation included: • Centralized economic decision making • Inadequate economic incentives • Poor worker discipline • Worsening infrastructure problems • Too much spending on the military, not enough investment in the civilian economy

Economics • Stopping the economic free fall required drastic measures… Enter President Boris Yeltsin • Yeltsin proposed “Shock Therapy,” abandoning a centrally planned economy for a free market system. Three key components of “Shock Therapy”: • Implement price decontrol • Privatize economic activity, including sale of state-owned industries • Reduce government subsidies

Economics • Economists thought dismantling the administrative command system in Russia would raise production capability, the GDP, and living standards… • It didn’t… Removal of “social safety net” resulted in unanticipated challenges: • Higher prices, inflation, and corruption • Reluctance to participate in privatization • Higher unemployment (14%) • 25% of Russians live below poverty line • Lower standard of living

Economic turmoil directly contributed to the rise in human trafficking in Russia and the Former Soviet Republics • Women and children disproportionately affected • Creation of “artificial orphans” • Women in particular face: • Sexual discrimination • Limited retraining programs • Unemployment • Low salaries Economics Human trafficking is a billion dollar illicit industry, ranked third behind drug trafficking and illegal arms sales… And is one of the fastest growing areas of international crime.

Nikita Khrushchev Premier of the Soviet Union, Mar 1958- Oct 1964 Politics and Government When the USSR faded into history on 31 December 1991, fifteen newly independent states emerged, each of which had to answer these questions: And perhaps most importantly… How will we transition to a post-Soviet government? How will we form it? How will it work? What type of government will we have? What powers will it have?

Politics and Government • No easy answers for any one • 13 parties competed in the 1993 Russian parliamentary elections; two years later, 43 parties fielded candidates • Each country’s transition proceeded differently • Some approached democracy • Others kept authoritarian political structures ...ALL marked with complex struggles that continue today!

Mikhail Gorbachev Last General Secretary of the CPSU Mar 1985 – Dec 1991 Politics and Government • Generally, the politics of transition have pitted people with one of five different political outlooks against each other: • Democrats and Reformers • Communists • Nationalists and Ultranationalists • Economic Pragmatists • Islamicists

Boris Yeltsin 1st President of the Russian Federation July 1991 – Dec 1999 Politics and Government Democrats and Reformers • Many states wanted to establish democratic governments • Strong pro-democracy movements developed in Russia, the Baltic States, Ukraine, etc. • Unwillingness to compromise, however, often undermined efforts and led to numerous pro-democracy parties

Vladimir Lenin 1st Premier of Soviet Union Nov 1917 – Jan 1924 Politics and Government Communists • Primary threat to the democratic reform movement • Argue that democrats mishandled the economy even worse than the communists had • Generally discredited due to past economic mishandling, monopolized power, and internal division… … But, Zyuganov will run for President in 2008! Gennady Zyuganov Head of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation 1993 - Current

Eduard Limonov National Bolshevik Party leader Politics and Government Nationalists and Ultranationalists • Advocate national control of political-economic power and defense of social-cultural traditions • Many nationalists in the non-Russian states see Russia as a threat • Condemn democrats as incompetent and communists as the source of the problems

Karl Marx Author, Communist Manifesto Politics and Government Economic Pragmatists • Industrialists, industrial workers, and members of the military are the core members of pragmatic economic centrist groups • Advocate that the most important concern for Russia is economic growth, almost regardless of how it occurs

Politics and Government Islamicists • In Azerbaijan and the Central Asian states, proponents of Islamic governments have limited, but real, power • Like other post-Soviet political movements, there are divisions in this group as well (i.e., Moderate vs Fundamentalists)

Russian Government Legislature Executive Judiciary* Central Bank Federation Council (178 Seats) Constitutional Court Chairman (Chief Sergei Ignatiev) President (Vladimir Putin) Chairman (Premier Mikhail Fradkov) The State Duma (450 Seats) Supreme Court Deputy Deputy Chairmen (First Deputy Premier Medvedev) Supreme Court of Arbitration * Judiciary appointed for life by the Federation Council on the recommendation of the President The Ministries (Premier and his deputies, ministers, and selected other individuals) Vladimir Putin President of the Russian Federation Politics and Government

Politics and Government Russian Foreign Policy • Quite different than that of Cold War-era USSR • Cold War policy shaped by animosity • “Capitalistic encirclement” meant long term peace between two antithetical world views impossible • Now, focus is on redefining Russian security interests, rebuilding Russia’s global influence, and bolstering economic growth Bottom line: Political uncertainty facing Russia and the Former Soviet Republics remains a significant concern, and this political evolution has just begun.

US Interests • In 2000, the Report of the Commission on American National Interests concluded that Russia ranks among the few countries whose actions can affect American interests for several key reasons: • Size and strategic location • Soviet legacy • Membership on UN Security Council • Immense nuclear arsenal

US Interests • Size and strategic location • Key regional player in Europe, Middle East, and Central/South/East Asia • Russia’s “geopolitical weight” arguably exceeds that of London or Paris • Soviet legacy • Russia maintains relationship with and information about countries that are relatively inaccessible to the West • Particularly true in Middle East and Central Asia

US Interests • UN Security Council membership • Ability to ease or complicate our efforts, affecting our ability to provide global leadership • Immense nuclear arsenal • Control and security key issue • Economic turmoil and lax security measures contribute to the risk of rogue entities stealing or using bribery to acquire nuclear material “… [security] measures date from the Soviet era and are not designed to counter the pre-eminent threat faced today, an insider who attempts unauthorized actions…” (National Intelligence Council, 2002)

Summary • Background Video • Russian People • Economic Issues • Politics and Government • US Interests

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Russia and the Former Soviet Republics